Edmonton Oilers: 2019-20 season preview, predictions

Strengths

Center Depth

The Edmonton Oilers don’t have much going for them, but they do have one of the best cores of centers in the NHL. That’s a recipe for success. Unfortunately, the Oilers wings are terrible. But still, it’s something they can hang their hat on.

I don’t need to say many words about how great McDavid is. His career is off to one heck of a start. McDavid has 336 era-adjusted points from his second season to his fourth season. Here’s a full list of players who did better during their second season to their fourth season.

• Wayne Gretzky
• Mario Lemieux

That’s it. McDavid deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as those players. He’s been that darn good. If the Hart Trophy voting wasn’t screwed up, he’d have two in his first four seasons. Should McDavid demand a trade from the Oilers, I don’t think anyone would blame him.

Leon Draisaitl has to play on McDavid’s wing because, yeah, their wings are that bad. But he’s a great player, even if it’s fair to ask how much of his production is because he happens to play next to the best player in the world.

Draisaitl probably isn’t scoring 50 goals again, unless he can score on 21.6% of his shots on goal again. But he should be good for at least 30 to 40 goals. If Draisaitl can take his game to the next level and drive his own line without his production dropping off too much, the Oilers might have an outside shot at the postseason.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a bit underrated. Maybe it’s because he was a first overall pick and he’s merely been a pretty good player instead of a great player. Nugent-Hopkins had a breakout year, setting career highs with 28 goals, 41 assists, and 69 (nice!) points.

Between Marcus Granlund, Sam Gagner, Jujhar Khiara, and Riley Sheahan, the Oilers have pretty decent options in their bottom six as well. Maybe one or two of them will stick. And I’m a fan of Cooper Marody.

Power Play

Let’s be honest – it’s almost impossible to not have a good power play when your options include McDavid and Draisaitl. But still, the Oilers need optimism, and their power play should give them some. They ranked in the top 10 last season. The addition of James Neal should give them a nice boost.

Something odd to note – McDavid barely ranks in the top 20 in penalties drawn at five-on-five. I’m baffled how he doesn’t draw more. Every time I watch the Oilers, McDavid is slashed at least twice without a whistle. The NHL is terrible at protecting its stars.

Weaknesses

Goaltending

Peter Chiarelli did a lot of bad things to the Oilers. His parting shot was one of his worst. The last move Chiarelli made was locking up goaltender Mikko Koskinen to a three-year extension worth $4.5 million annually.

At the time, he had a .911% save percentage, which ranked 19th out of 42 goalies (minimum 20 games played). After that extension, Koskinen had a .901 save percentage, which ranked 16th out of the 19 goalies who played at least 20 games. Chiarelli rushed to sign him to an extension months before he had to and the Oilers are the ones stuck with the bill.

Mike Smith wasn’t good last season for the Flames, though he redeemed himself somewhat with a solid second half. At this point, he’s a tandem goalie at best. Smith can’t be relied on to handle the load as a starter. Nor can Koskinen. It’s not hard to see how things could go south for the Oilers goaltending.

Wings

My goodness are the Oilers wings bad. Draisaitl had 50 goals last season. The rest of their wings combined scored 64 goals. Drake Caggiula, Milan Lucic, and Jesse Puljujarvi, who combined to score 17 goals, aren’t returning, which leaves 47. Draisaitl outscored the rest of the Oilers returning wings from last season by himself.

It wouldn’t shock me if Neal bounces back, assuming he earns a spot next to McDavid or even Nugent-Hopkins. Neal is aging and has become a bit one-dimensional, but I’m not ready to write him off yet. You don’t just forget how to score goals. Still, the Oilers wings were terrible last season and the Oilers are betting on Neal, who’s coming off a very bad season. Even in a best-case scenario, their wing depth is a huge concern.

Scoring Depth

The Oilers got 119 goals from McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins. However, the rest of the team scored just 113 goals. The Oilers finished in the bottom 10 in scoring last season and it would have been much worse without their three best players. Even if Neal bounces back, where are the rest of the goals coming from?

Blue Line

Edmonton has some solid pieces on their blue line. Darnell Nurse is a quality defenseman, albeit one with flaws. Oscar Klefbom is extremely unlucky, but he consistently posts strong underlying stats. Matthew Benning quietly posts impressive underlying stats.

The rest of the Oilers defense is sketchy. Kris Russell is a third-pairing defenseman at best. Adam Larsson has struggled mightily since the 2016-17 season. Evan Bouchard could provide a boost, as could Caleb Jones. But the Oilers defense isn’t good enough, nor is it deep enough.

Projected Lineup

My projected lineups couldn’t be done without help from Cap Friendly and Daily Faceoff. Check out the former for everything related to the salary cap and the latter for updated depth charts during the season.

Forwards

Leon Draisaitl – Connor McDavid – Zack Kassian
James Neal – Ryan-Nugent Hopkins – Alex Chiasson
Marcus Granlund – Riley Sheahan – Sam Gagner
Joakim Nygard –  Jujhar Khaira – Josh Archibald

Extra forward candidates: Colby Cave, Patrick Russell, Tomas Jurco

Players to watch: Tyler Benson is a promising young forward. He’s waiver exempt, which means he’ll likely start the season in the AHL. Benson was impressive there last season, posting 66 points in 68 games. He should make his NHL debut at some point this season. Keep an eye on Cooper Marody as well. He had 64 points in 58 games in the AHL last season.

Defensemen

Darnell Nurse – Adam Larsson
Oscar Klefbom – Matt Benning
Kris Russell – Caleb Jones

Extra defenseman candidates: Brandon Manning, Joel Persson

Players to watch: The Oilers love lighting their entry-level contracts on fire, so it wouldn’t shock me if 2018 first-round pick Evan Bouchard makes the Opening Night roster and stays on their third pairing. If he doesn’t make the Opening Night roster, he’ll likely get another cup of coffee in the NHL after his junior season is over.

Goaltenders

Mikko Koskinen
Mike Smith

Goaltending depth: Shane Starrett

Players to watch: People have different ways of evaluating goalie prospects, but my method is simple. I like goalies who stop pucks. 2019 second-round pick Ilya Konovalov is very good at stopping pucks. He’s already had success in the KHL. Keep a close eye on him because if all goes well with Konovalov, the Oilers might have a franchise goaltender.

Prediction

My preview of the Oilers is quite grim. It deserves to be. Everything went right for McDavid and Draisaitl last season. The former nearly won the Art Ross and the latter almost scored more goals than Alex Ovechkin. And the Oilers still weren’t that close to the postseason.

Any improvements they make this season are going to have to be because of Dave Tippett. He has a history of getting the most out of sub-optimal rosters, so I think he’s the right guy for the Oilers. Tippett has never coached anyone as gifted as McDavid, or even Draisaitl for that matter.

That said, the deck is stacked against the Oilers. They made minimal improvements to a roster lacking in talent. Even if everything goes right for them, it’s hard to see them as a postseason team. If the Oilers are in the postseason, it will be because McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Tippett dragged them there kicking and screaming.