Tampa Bay Lightning: How Mitch Marner’s deal affects Brayden Point
Mitch Marner has re-signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs. The deal stands at six years for $10.893M per year. That’s good news for the Leafs and bad news for the Tampa Bay Lightning and Brayden Point.
For Toronto Maple Leafs fans, the Mitch Marner deal is a relief. The superstar winger has returned with a new contract before the start of training camp. It goes even deeper, however, and I give credit to Steve Dangle for shedding light on this fact – the Leafs’ top seven forwards and number one defenseman Morgan Reilly are all locked up for at least the next three years. The deal, might, however, not be good for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
For the Leafs, though, their main core of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, and Marner are locked-up for the next five seasons. If you dive deeper into the Marner contract, it’s slightly more appealing than it might appear at first glance.
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The base salary is $700,000 for the first two seasons and $750,000 for the last four seasons. The contract is primarily made up of signing bonuses, with the last three seasons of his deal having $7.25 million in bonuses.
It’s a front-loaded deal, giving the Leafs the option to pay Marner’s bonuses quickly and, if it comes down to it, making Marner a more appealing player to trade for in other teams’ eyes. Ultimately, they’re paying him elite-level money to play alongside an elite center in either Tavares or Matthews, to put up 90+ points every year.
If he does not meet those expectations, they front-loaded his contract and made it mostly signing bonus-laden, making the contract movable and not too expensive for another team to take. The Marner signing stretches further out than just Toronto, though. It affects the entire market of unsigned RFAs.
That means that it affects Tampa’s negotiations with Brayden Point, Vancouver’s negotiations with Brock Boeser, Winnipeg’s negotiations with Kyle Connor and Patrick Laine, Calgary’s negotiations with Matthew Tkachuk, and Philadelphia’s negotiations with Travis Konecny.
However, I will focus only on the Lightning today. Then for the next few days, I’ll look at all the other teams with holdouts.
Tampa Bay and Brayden Point
The big issue with Marner’s deal, at least for the Lightning, is that Marner is Point’s best comparable. Period. Just look at the numbers. If you’re not about numbers, then watch the games for the eye test. They play a very similar style with very similar results.
Point has played in three separate seasons with the Lightning, totaling 229 games played in that span. Marner has also played three separate seasons with the Leafs, playing in 241 games. The small difference in games played is a result of Point not starting with the Lightning in his rookie season as quickly as Marner, as he has only missed three games in his last two seasons, with Marner missing zero games over the last two.
Point has tallied 40, 66, and 92 points, respectively, in his three seasons. Marner has put up 61, 69, and 94 points, respectively. The last two seasons are more of a focal point, as at that point both players carved out a consistent role on their teams.
Point is more of a goal-scorer than Marner is, while Marner is more of a playmaker. The former has 91 career goals to the latter’s 67. Meanwhile, Marner has 157 assists to Point’s 107. But they have been almost identically effective on the offensive end of the ice.
On more of the defensive end of things, look at hits, blocked shots, corsi-for% (CF%) and fenwick-for% (FF%). Point has collected 96 hits in his career while Marner collected 101. Point blocked a total of 131 shots whereas Marner blocked 107 shots.
But here’s where the comparison gets even tighter – Point has a career 52.1 CF% and a 51.7 FF%. Marner, on the other hand, has a career 51.8 CF% and a 50 FF%. Those are eerily similar numbers between the two players. But now we get to the takeaway-giveaway ratios.
Point has a career takeaway-giveaway ratio of 121 to 67 (+54 differential). Marner has a career takeaway-giveaway ratio of 230 to 179 (+51 differential). Marner is a more aggressive puck-mover while Point plays a safer transitional game, yet they still have equal efficiency in the metrics listed above.
What this all means is that Point and Marner are ultimately at the same skill level, with one playing a safer, goal-scoring type of game, and the other playing a more aggressive, playmaking type of game. It’s two different scenarios, however.
The Leafs had paid Auston Matthews and John Tavares big-time contracts (both $11 million+ deals) while the Lightning are paying arguably the best winger in the NHL just $9.5 million. They set the standard at Kucherov’s deal and it’s hard to imagine a world where the Lightning gives more to Point than Kucherov.
Plus, the fact that there’s no state tax, Point can take a little less than what he would normally ask. The Lightning are also an uber-talented team that offers a high chance at winning the Stanley Cup.
But there was a major reason why Point held out of a deal and continues to hold out today. That reason was Marner because he knows that Marner is who he can measure up to. He gifted Point a bigger contract than he probably would have gotten if he signed sooner.
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The Lightning’s hands are tied into trading a player, or players, to accommodate a new Point deal unless things change. After Marner signed, I can imagine Point will push for a $9 million AAV over the next five years. That’s tough news for a team who has Mikhail Sergachev, Erik Cernak and Mathieu Joseph all expiring at this season’s end.