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Colorado Avalanche: How Mitch Marner’s deal affects Mikko Rantanen

By Kyle Pereira

SAN JOSE, CA - MAY 08: Colorado Avalanche forward Mikko Rantanen (96), left, celebrates with teammate Samuel Girard (49) after scoring his side's first goal in the first period during game seven of the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Colorado Avalanche and the San Jose Sharks on May 8, 2019 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
SAN JOSE, CA - MAY 08: Colorado Avalanche forward Mikko Rantanen (96), left, celebrates with teammate Samuel Girard (49) after scoring his side's first goal in the first period during game seven of the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Colorado Avalanche and the San Jose Sharks on May 8, 2019 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/NHLI via Getty Images /

Mitch Marner has re-signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs for six years and $10.893 million per year. How does this affect the Colorado Avalanche and their negotiations with star RFA forward Mikko Rantanen?

The Marner signing stretches further out than just Toronto. It affects the entire market of unsigned RFAs. Perhaps no one is more affected by Marner’s long-term deal than the Colorado Avalanche and star RFA forward Mikko Rantanen.

One of the comparables, in terms of the amount of money he could earn, is Nathan MacKinnon. It’s fair to say MacKinnon is the better player between the two. He is currently getting paid just $6.3 million per season, which is a steal.

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But when you look closer, you realize that MacKinnon’s deal was signed back in 2016 when the salary cap was set at $73 million. That means that when MacKinnon signed his deal, he made up just 8.6% of the total cap. Knowing that MacKinnon is the better player, that sets Rantanen’s earnings at 8.5% of the total cap, totaling $7.055 million per season. Or at least, that’s what Colorado would likely aim for.

Rantanen has put up 87 and 84 points over the last two seasons, respectively, while MacKinnon had 97 and 99 points. So, realistically, the Avalanche could argue his value is at the previously mentioned $7.055 million, using the cap inflation to their advantage. This is a new age in hockey, however, and $7 million for an elite winger is considered a major underpayment. It’s also worth noting MacKinnon signed at a different time in his career than Rantanen.

The Rantanen situation is eerily similar to the Brayden Point situation in Tampa, where they set the standard for contracts with Kucherov at $9.5 million and Stamkos at $8.5 million, which realistically places Point somewhere between the two. But at least those two contract measurables are making over $8 million.

Now it’s up to Rantanen to set a benchmark, and unlike Tampa, there’s no “no state tax” argument to make him take less. So while Colorado’s base for a Rantanen contract is $7.055, the market values Rantanen at roughly $9 million, the usual price of an elite winger.

As if it couldn’t get any trickier for Colorado, Marner signs a big contract and pushes Rantanen to have an even higher asking price. But how much higher would he ask?

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