Colorado Avalanche: How Mitch Marner’s deal affects Mikko Rantanen

Rantanen vs Marner

Mikko Rantanen has played in four separate seasons with the Avalanche, playing in 9 games back in 2015-16. Marner has played in just three separate seasons. That being said, I will look at just the last three seasons for comparison’s sake.

Rantanen had 38, 87 and 84 points, in that order, over that span of three seasons. Marner has had 61, 69 and 94 points. In Rantanen’s first season, with 38 points, the Avalanche were a disaster, going 22-56-4 that year.

But in his second season, the post-Duchene Avalanche began clicking, with Rantanen being a beneficiary of that. That continued into the following season, albeit with inconsistencies. Something I really enjoy looking at is PDO to see how the players truly compare.

PDO is ultimately luck, quantified. Anything lower than a 100 PDO is bad luck, 100 is not good or bad luck (average) and over 100 is good luck. Rantanen has posted PDOs of 96.8, 101.4 and 100.6, respectively.

What this tells me is that Rantanen’s point totals are most definitely maintainable. He can consistently be an 85-90 point player if he plays a full 82 game season. Plus, he lines up alongside two excellent players in MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. Not to mention, the high-upside defensemen they have that also chip in on offense.

Rantanen will breed success for years in Colorado. Meanwhile, Marner has posted 100.4, 100.9 and 103.2, respectively. Ultimately, Marner reaped the benefits of playing alongside John Tavares, as well as getting a bit of luck on top of that.

His numbers are, arguably, not maintainable. With that knowledge, Marner might not be a consistent 90-point man that he is thought to be, though that could change. That’s a major win for the Rantanen camp, especially if they can dial in on the maintainability and potential he has compared to that of the near-$11 million man Marner.

As for his possession statistics, look at his Corsi-for% (CF%) and Fenwick-for% (FF%). Rantanen posted a career CF% of 51.1% and a FF% of 50.5%, while Marner recorded a 51.8 CF% and a 50 FF%. More notably, Rantanen recorded a 53.9 CF% and 53.4 FF% last season compared to Marner’s 51.7 CF% and 49.8 FF%.

That is another major win for Rantanen, as he has looked better in the possessional aspect of the game than Marner. Mikko’s stock just continuing to rise.

Defensively, there aren’t a whole lot of metrics available to show to you, at least not to this point in time, so I personally look at hits, blocked shots, takeaways and giveaways. Rantanen has 125 career blocks and 120 career hits.

Marner, meanwhile, has 107 blocks and 101 hits. Rantanen’s career takeaway-giveaway ratio is 134-98 (+36) while Marner’s is 230-179 (+51). Marner is the more aggressive puck-mover than Rantanen, while still remaining reliable and safe with the puck. It’s safe to say that they’re pretty even in these metrics, leading to another win for Rantanen.

Something worth mentioning through those three years: Rantanen has missed 16 total games to Marner’s 5. That may not seem like much, and it really isn’t, to be fair, but he played 74 games to Marner’s 82 last season. That is a minor durability issue. That could also be a talking point for the Avalanche to talk Rantanen down.

The Avalanche have roughly $15.6M in free space, which ultimately means that cap space isn’t much of an issue. It all came down to what Marner would earn this off-season to see where exactly Rantanen’s asking price would land. With Marner garnering nearly $11 million per season, it inflates the market by quite a bit.

It takes a $9M ceiling for Rantanen and turns it up. When looking at the metrics, it’s crazy to see how Mikko matches up. It’s easy to argue that he could get just as much as Marner. However, with the MacKinnon contract being a major steal, it sets Rantanen’s bar a bit lower. I’d say he could easily ask for $10 million and he might just get that, though I expect he’d take a smaller term (3-4 years) for closer to $9 million.