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Toronto Maple Leafs: Point’s deal shines light on Marner’s overpayment

By Kyle Pereira

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 11: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) takes aim on the penalty shot during Game 1 of the First Round between the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 11, 2019, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - APRIL 11: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) takes aim on the penalty shot during Game 1 of the First Round between the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 11, 2019, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Brayden Point’s deal is a great bargain for the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, it shows how badly the Toronto Maple Leafs handled Mitch Marner’s deal.

On Sept. 23, 2019, the Tampa Bay Lightning brought back restricted free agent Brayden Point on a bridge deal, ending the wait. Fans are more than excited to see him back on the ice, especially considering how cheap the contract is, compared to Points market value. But I’m not here to talk to you about the deal itself, I’m here to tell you how outlandish it makes Mitch Marner’s deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs look.

As we pointed out in an article earlier this month, Point’s best comparison on the market was Marner. Point recorded 41 goals and 51 assists for 92 points last season, along with a 51.9% corsi-for% (CF%). Not to mention he produced a 35-25 takeaway-giveaway ratio (+10 differential), while averaging 18:55 time on ice per game.

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Meanwhile, Marner put up 26 goals (15 less than Point) and 68 assists (17 more than Point) for 94 points (2 more than Point), along with a 51.7 CF% (0.2% less than Point). He also garnered a 78-67 takeaway-giveaway ratio (+11 differential), all while averaging 19:49 TOI per game (54 seconds more than Point per game).

Basically, their stats were almost exactly the same throughout. Marner played a bit more aggressive than Point, based on the volume of takeaways and giveaways, while also being more of a playmaker, yet they still performed with relatively the same effectiveness.

On top of that, Marner played nearly a full minute more per game than Point, on average. Plus, Point is a center, and the center position is notably more valuable than that of the left and right wings, which Marner plays (right-wing, to be more precise). So why is it that Point is making $4.143 million less per season?

Sure, there is no state tax in Tampa, allowing players to cost less and make more than a player in Toronto. Plus, the fact that Marner took a six-year deal, while Point took a bridge deal. That does trim down the cost quite a bit but by over $4 million per season? Not quite.

Kyle Dubas is new at this whole general manager thing, though that’s not to say he hasn’t done an excellent job with what he was handed from Lou Lamoriello. But you can’t blame his “inexperience” at GM for the Marner overpayment, at least when comparing him to Tampa’s GM Julien BriseBois. Because guess what, BriseBois is also new at this GM thing, and he has done excellent at exploiting the market and negotiating.

Dubas is young, giving a fresh vibe to the Toronto front office, but it’s no hidden fact that Dubas caves in too easily to his star players. BriseBois is older, and from the looks of it, an absolute expert negotiator. He waited and waited for some more RFAs to sign and, what do you know, Brock Boeser, Charlie McAvoy, and Brandon Carlo took cheap bridge deals.

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BriseBois jumped on the opportunity to buy-low in a win-win scenario and it worked. It worked as it has seemingly all off-season for Tampa, as they bought-low on Patrick Maroon and Kevin Shattenkirk.

BriseBois continues to work his magic, now it’s time to see if everything works out in the end. Contract info via capfriendly, Stats via hockey-reference.

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