Pittsburgh Penguins: 2019 regular season projections

How well will the Pittsburgh Penguins do during the 2019-20 season?

While I certainly do not have the vocal cords of Andy Williams, it is the most wonderful time of the year. The puck drops on the Pittsburgh Penguins 2019-20 season on Thursday night against the Buffalo Sabres.

Pre-season projections are always fun and exciting. There were a few analytically-inclined season previews and today we are going to take a look at what they have projected for the 2019-20 Penguins.

Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic is one of my favorite people to follow on hockey Twitter. I reckon his very insightful work alone is a reason to subscribe to the website. I value his model and projections quite highly, so here is what he has pegged for the Penguins this upcoming season. The full preview can be found in the tweet below.

• Projected points: 99.7
• Playoff chances: 81%
• Stanley Cup chances: 5%

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In terms of individual scoring, Luszczyszyn’s projections have Sidney Crosby at 95 points, Evgeni Malkin at 88, Jake Guenztel at 75, and Kris Letang at 56.

Hockey fans are so lucky to have access to the work of Micah Blake McCurdy. He simulated the 2019-20 season one million times with his model in order to form his projections.

• Projected points: 91.1
• Playoff chances: 53%

As of writing this, Micah did not post his Stanley Cup odds anywhere yet. He mentioned that the Metropolitan Division is very well balanced and that the likely parity throughout it will be because these teams play each other so frequently. I highly recommend following him @IneffectiveMath on Twitter.

Money Puck is a popular website that does a great job of posting charts of in-game probabilities, playoff odds, and power rankings all based off of the data. Here are their Penguins projections

• Projected points: 93.6
• Playoff chances: 56.89%
• Stanley Cup chances: 3.7%

In my opinion, the Penguins are a Jack Johnson trade and top-six forward acquisition from being legitimate Stanley Cup contenders once again.

In terms of pairings, Pittsburgh’s defense core has to be more stable this season. The Penguins can not have Jack Johnson consistently in the lineup and expect an adequate amount of secondary scoring from the bottom six forwards. Last season, the Penguins were a substantially worse team with Johnson on the ice as opposed to him off of it. Trading him would change the dynamic of this team in a significantly positive manner. Over the summer, The PensBlog took a look at how big of an anchor Johnson was.

While I feel that Alex Galchenyuk will be a fine fit here, the Penguins no longer have the point-per-game production of Phil Kessel. As Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin age, they will need more offensive support and wingers who can create their own shot.

Right now, there is a bunch of second and third-line tweener forwards, which is more good than bad. While I may be getting ahead of myself with this thought, bolstering the top-six would make this team more dangerous up-front.

The Metropolitan Division loaded up this summer. Carolina’s analytically inclined front office improved their defense core. The Flyers invested a lot of money into Kevin Hayes. Artemi Panarin, Kappo Kakko, PK Subban, and Nikita Gusev will make the Rangers and Devils formidable opponents.

Despite all that, I expect the Penguins to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs this spring. Pittsburgh still has the hardest pieces to get, their core remains elite, and they are likely a few tweaks away from being legitimate contenders once again. Enjoy the season & thanks for reading!