Columbus Blue Jackets: Early season woes aren’t as bad as they seem

Though the Columbus Blue Jackets have gotten blown out in their first two games of the 2019-20 NHL season, there are some reasons for optimism. 

To say the Columbus Blue Jackets aren’t off to a strong start to the 2019-20 season would be an understatement. The Toronto Maple Leafs beat them 4-1 in their home opener on Oct. 4. They traveled to Pittsburgh to face their biggest rivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the next night. The end result? A 7-2 loss.

On paper, this means the Blue Jackets have been outscored 11-3 so far, including 7-2 at five-on-five and 8-2 at even strength. Last season, Columbus was defined by their terrific penalty kill, which killed 85% of their penalties, tied for the best mark in the NHL. This season, they’ve only killed 66.7% of their penalties. And this season, unlike last season, the Blue Jackets are committing penalties too. They’ve already been shorthanded nine times, tied for the fourth-most times in the league.

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Despite their early struggles, the Blue Jackets still have some reasons for optimism. After losing Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, and Sergei Bobrovsky in free agency, the Blue Jackets have been counted out of the postseason race by many. Yes, they’ve been outscored 11-3 so far. However, keep in mind they had to play the Toronto Maple Leafs and Penguins on consecutive nights. That’s about as tough of a set of back-to-back games you’re going to find.

Also, the Blue Jackets haven’t been getting much luck so far, as their 22.25% goals for percentage at five-on-five suggests. Their expected goals for percentage is 45.8%. The Blue Jackets have a team shooting percentage of 5.08% during all situations, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. To give you a perspective of how ludicrously low that is, only one forward in the salary cap era has played at least 300 games with a lower shooting percentage – J.T. Brown.

The biggest problem so far for the Blue Jackets is one everyone expected them to have – their goaltending. Losing Bobrovsky was a huge blow. Any team who loses their franchise goaltender is going to have a rough patch as they try to replace him. Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins are unproven, and they’re showing it right now. They’re going to need time to gain confidence. The Blue Jackets are hoping one of the two will emerge as the number one.

Their goaltending struggles are a bit alarming even in a minuscule sample size, but the Blue Jackets are playing fairly well in front of their goaltenders. This is a small sample size, but Columbus has a middle of the pack expected goals against per hour rate during all situations. Given they just played two of the most lethal offenses in the NHL, that’s pretty impressive.

The Blue Jackets might be without Panarin and Duchene, but they still have some guys who can score on offense. After a rough season in 2018-19, Riley Nash already has two assists, which is encouraging. Cam Atkinson and Nick Foligno are both getting the puck on net consistently, as both have nine shots on goal through their first two games. Gustav Nyquist has proven to be a nice addition.

It’s not time for the Blue Jackets to hit the panic button. At least not yet. Back in 2016-17, the Blue Jackets lost their first two games to the Boston Bruins and San Jose Sharks by a combined score of 9-5. They had a 3-3-1 record at the end of October. The 2016-17 Blue Jackets went on to have the most successful regular season in franchise history. They might be down right now, but don’t count them out.