Pittsburgh Penguins: Jared McCann is exceeding expectations

The Pittsburgh Penguins have found a gem in Jared McCann, who has given them a much-needed spark.

It is no secret that the Pittsburgh Penguins have a tendency to acquire former first-round draft selections. Jared McCann was taken in the first round of the 2014 draft by Vancouver. After acquiring him in February, Pittsburgh is reaping the rewards of his versatility and skillset this season.

With Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Nick Bjugstad all missing time this season due to injury, Jared McCann’s skill set and versatility have been on full display. He has filled the voids (and then some) quite well in the early portions of the 2019-20 campaign.

More from Pittsburgh Penguins

• The Pittsburgh Penguins made a very smart front-office hire
• 3 reasons the Penguins won’t win the Stanley Cup in 2024
• Penguins News: Carl Hagelin is now retiring from the NHL
• Where the Penguins could land in the Metropolitan Division standings
• Penguins: Grading how each team did in the Erik Karlsson trade

McCann’s five even-strength goals are second on the Penguins to only Jake Guentzel (6). His even-strength points per 60 (3.05) is third on the team. His possession metrics are above-average across the board. He is arguably the Penguins’ best defensive forward.

McCann has the highest goals above replacement (GAR) amongst all players in the Metropolitan Division. According to Evolving Hockey’s model, his total of 7.4 is the fifth-highest amongst all NHL skaters. Ryan Ellis, Brad Marchand, Cale Makar, and Elias Pettersson are the top four.

I am beginning to think that McCann will be a significant outlier in regards to the Expected Goals statistical category.

Per Natural Stat Trick, in 32 games with the Penguins last season, McCann had an Individual Expected Goals created total of 5.83. McCann ended up scoring 11 goals in that time frame. That is 5 more than he was expected to score based on his shot volume and quality.

Granted, some of them were empty-net goals but even without scoring those, he still would have scored more than he was expected too. The fact that he was on the ice at the end of those close games shows how much the Penguins coaching staff trusts McCann defensively.

Playing alongside Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel for an extended period likely played a key role in explaining the gap between McCann’s expected and actual production last season.

This season, McCann’s expected goals total is 1.91. He has scored 6 goals. He has spent very limited playing time alongside Crosby and Guentzel. He has spent the majority of the time bouncing around in the middle six of Pittsburgh’s forward core. If and when the Penguins do get healthy, McCann appears to be a fit on Evgeni Malkin’s left-wing.

It is quite possible that I am overanalyzing this and that it could just be due to a significant jump in McCann’s shooting percentage. During his time in Vancouver and Florida, McCann scored on 7.65% of his shots. In Pittsburgh, he is an 18.35 % shooter. That will regress to the mean at some point, but based on his tenure with the Penguins, I suspect his shooting percentage will be above 7 percent.

McCann ended the Penguins horrific power-play drought last night with this laser of a shot.

https://twitter.com/penguins/status/1194434831075205120

High-end individual shooting talent is a difficult skill to quantify. Through 48 games as a Penguin, McCann appears to have it. After trading Phil Kessel and the lack of finishing ability that we have witnessed from Alex Galchenyuk thus far, they have needed it.

McCann is a restricted free agent next summer. The Penguins will be re-signing him. Throughout his Penguins tenure, he has 28 points in 48 games. That is a full-season pace of 47 points. If he keeps this kind of production up, the 23-year-old will be getting quite a raise from his current $1.25 million salary. Thanks for reading!