Florida Panthers: It’s time to start worrying about Sergei Bobrovsky

Sergei Bobrovsky was signed by the Florida Panthers to help alleviate their goaltending issues. However, he’s only made those problems worse.

The Florida Panthers are firmly in the hunt for a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They had the most successful October in franchise history and even with a relatively slow start to November, they’re on pace to have the second-most points in franchise history. Most of the Panthers’ big acquisitions this summer have helped them immensely. Except for one – Sergei Bobrovsky.

Bobrovsky signed a seven-year deal worth $10 million a season. This makes him the second-highest paid goaltender in the league, trailing only Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens. It’s not hard to see why the Panthers signed Bobrovsky. He’s won two Vezina Trophies and Florida had the second-lowest team save percentage in the NHL last season. Bobrovsky was signed to fix that problem.

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He has not done that. If anything, Bobrovsky has been a part of the problem. Last season, the Panthers had a team save percentage of .892%. Through 16 games (15 starts) this season, Bobrovsky has a .880% save percentage.

By comparison, his backup, Sam Montembeault, has a .903% save percentage. In fact, both Joonas Koprisalo and Elvis Merzlikins of the Columbus Blue Jackets, Bobrovsky’s former team, have a better save percentage than him.

Of Bobrovsky’s 15 starts, five of them have been deemed by Hockey Reference as being “really bad starts”. Those are defined as starts with a save percentage of below .850%.

Quality starts are defined by Hockey Reference as starts in which a goaltender either posts at least a league-average save percentage if they face at least 20 shots or at least a 0.885% save percentage if they face less than 20. Bobrovsky nearly has as many really bad starts (5) as he does quality starts (6).

Among goalies with at least 10 appearances as of Nov. 15, he has the second-lowest save percentage, trailing only Jonathan Quick of the Los Angeles Kings. These struggles are nothing new, either. Bobrovsky has the fourth-lowest save percentage of all goaltenders who have played in at least 60 games since the start of last season.

It’s not like there weren’t red flags surrounding him when he hit free agency. Bobrovsky has seen his save percentage decline in recent years.

• 2016-17: .931%
• 2017-18: .921%
• 2018-19: .913%
• 2018-19*: .880%

*through 16 games played

Also, Bobrovsky turned 31 in September. Age is rarely kind to goaltenders. While top-notch goalies like Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist, Martin Brodeur, and Pekka Rinne have been able to fight off Father Time and remain excellent well into their 30s, they are the exceptions, not the rule.

When the Panthers signed him, they were hoping he would be able to reverse his declining numbers. Bobrovsky dealt with some issues last season with the Columbus Blue Jackets, but he stepped up big time in March and was a huge reason they were able to upset the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

So far, Bobrovsky has done nothing to show he can reverse the trend. His slow start in October (.873% save percentage) wasn’t surprising. Bobrovsky has started slowly in two of his previous four seasons. But he usually righted himself by November. This season, he has not.

When Bobrovsky signed his seven-year deal, it wasn’t a matter of if his deal would eventually be regretted. It was a matter of when it would be regretted. Bobrovsky’s not even two full months into the seven-year deal that will pay him over $70 million and the Panthers are likely already experiencing a bit of buyer’s remorse.

Is it impossible for him to bounce back? Absolutely not. Ironically, Price went through a similar situation. In 2017, he signed the largest deal ever given to a goaltender a year ahead of free agency. Price responded by having the worst season of his career, posting a career-low .900% save percentage in 2017-18. He was 31 heading into the 2018-19 season, much like Bobrovsky is 31 right now.

However, he was able to bounce back. Price posted a .918% save percentage last season in 66 games. Through 15 games this season, he has a .916% save percentage. While we’ll likely never see the Price who won the Vezina Trophy and Hart Trophy during the 2014-15 season, he’s at least a pretty darn good goalie. The same cannot be said for Bobrovsky.

In retrospect, the Panthers signing Bobrovsky was confusing. They signed him to a seven-year deal weeks after using their first-round pick to draft goaltender Spencer Knight. That sort of contradicts why you draft Knight in the first place. The Panthers had weeks to find a better bridge to their first-round pick than signing a soon-to-be 31-year-old goalie to a long-term deal.

Signing Robin Lehner could have been an option. Semyon Varlamov could have been one as well. Either one would have been a perfectly fine bridge to gap the distance between now and Knight. Instead, the Panthers are stuck with a contract that’s already looking like an albatross.