Nashville Predators need to reverse the puzzling decline of Kyle Turris

By Dave Stevenson | Nov 25, 2019

DETROIT, MI - NOVEMBER 04: Kyle Turris #8 of the Nashville Predators gets set for the face-off against the Detroit Red Wings during an NHL game at Little Caesars Arena on November 4, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. Nashville defeated Detroit 6-1. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) /

The Nashville Predators have a lot of problems, but the largest one has been the lack of production from Kyle Turris.

The Nashville Predators recently lost Viktor Arvidsson for four to six weeks after St. Louis Blues defenseman Roberto Bertuzzo injured him with a pair of unnecessary crosschecks, the second one coming after he was already on the ground. With that injury, given his success early in the season, you might think the Preds would put Kyle Turris, who hasn’t played in the last three games, back in the lineup to replace him. You’d be wrong.

Instead, Predators head coach Peter Laviolette appears to be doubling down on his decision to scratch Turris. Given his success earlier in the season, when he had seven points in his first nine games, this decision is a bit strange.

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What makes it even stranger is how quickly Turris has fallen out of favor in Nashville. The Predators originally traded for him in the now infamous three-way trade involving Matt Duchene. He immediately signed a six-year extension with $6 million a year. The Predators invested quite a bit in him, both money-wise and asset-wise, as they gave up prized young defensemen Samuel Girard in the deal.

Turris got off to a decent start in Nashville, putting up 42 points in 65 regular-season games and adding three points in 13 postseason games. While he didn’t produce in the playoffs as well as the team expected, hockey can be a cruel game and players go through slumps, so all seemed well.

Last season is when things started going south for Turris. He had just 23 points in 52 games, good for a points per game rate of 0.42, his lowest since the 2010-11 season. Additionally, Turris had just two points in six playoff games. This led general manager David Poile to catch his white whale Matt Duchene to finally solve the second-line center problem Turris was acquired to solve.

What Happened?

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How did Turris go from producing like an above-average second-line center to barely producing like a passable third-line center? The answer is actually pretty simple.

Last season, Nashville had an almost historically inefficient power play. Turris was an important cog in their power play during the 2017-18 season. Nashville’s power play ineptitude likely caused P.K. Subban‘s departure, and it made Turris look worse as well.

2017-18: 18 power play points (5 goals, 13 assists) in 65 games
2018-19: 6 power play points (4 goals, 2 assists) in 55 games

That seems like a pretty big dropoff, but it’s even more obvious if you look at power play points per hour.

2017-18: 7.46 power play points per hour
2018-19: 2.94 power play points per hour

Had Turris maintained his mighty impressive 7.46 points per hour rate last season, that would have put him at 15 points. Suddenly, he has 32 points in 52 games, which would have been far more manageable.

Turris has never produced much at five-on-five in Nashville. But to be fair, his most common linemates have been Craig Smith (a notoriously streaky scorer) and Kevin Fiala (who was traded in February of 2019). Even with the addition of Duchene, Turris hasn’t really gotten much of a chance to be what the Predators acquired him to be.

Nashville clearly has a problem here. A player Poile signed to a long-term extension is having issues staying in the lineup. Laviolette is willingly playing guys who were very recently in the AHL over Turris, who is making $6 million a year. The only way they’re solving this problem is by getting rid of one of them.

Now, the answer might seem obvious – get rid of the $6 million guy, Turris. However, it takes two to tango. And right now, Turris’ trade value could not get much lower. Teams know Nashville wants to get rid of him, so the chances of them getting anything meaningful for him without taking on a bad asset are slim to none.

It’s worth noting the Edmonton Oilers found a way to get rid of Milan Lucic and get a productive player (James Neal) in return. Let’s assume the Predators do a similar “change of scenery” trade.

If they make a similar move, Turris is likely closer to Neal than Lucic. While both Lucic and Neal were not productive during the 2018-19 season, Neal at least had a history of being a reliable scorer. So, again, good luck to Nashville if they want to trade Turris, who has a history of being a reliable player, and winning that trade.

Maybe Poile calls the Calgary Flames and sees if Johnny Gaudreau or Sean Monahan are on the table. The Flames are, after all, struggling. And, as they say, a desperate general manager is usually a good one to deal with. But the chances of that happening are minimal at best.

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The Predators have to solve their issues. Their issues lie much deeper than Turris struggling. These issues have been consistently popping up. They’re systemic issues and the team has not adapted. So the answer to the question might be getting rid of Laviolette and allowing Turris, and the rest of the team, to get a fresh start.

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