The Edmonton Oilers are having a lot of success this season, but they still have some major issues.
This season has gone pretty darn well for the Edmonton Oilers. They’re one of the top teams in the Pacific Division and are comfortably in a playoff spot through 30 games. Connor McDavid and Leon Drasaitl seem committed to carrying the team to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
However, the Oilers still have some alarming issues that could cause them to go another year without the Stanley Cup. They’ve made some impressive strides from last season, but some concerns from last season haven’t subsided this season. Let’s take a look at them.
Defense And Goaltending
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Last season, the Oilers had the ninth-highest expected goals against per hour at five-on-five. This season, they have the 10th highest rate. That has led the Oilers to have a goal differential of just +4 despite having 17 wins through 30 games.
Early this season, these concerns were masked by great goaltending from Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen. In October, the latter posted a .922% save percentage while the former registered a .919% save percentage. Now that those numbers have dropped, their defensive issues are far more obvious.
November save percentage
- Koskinen: .918%
- Smith: .895%
December save percentage
- Koskinen: .886%
- Smith*: .846%
*Listed day-to-day as of Dec. 6
So far, Koskinen and Smith are working well as a tandem, as they’re splitting starts. Through 30 games, Koskinen and Smith each have 15 starts. However, Smith has been struggling since the start of November. Koskinen has been struggling a bit lately as well. The Oilers either need to improve defensively in front of their goalies or they need their goalies to perform better.
Full Strength Woes
The Oilers have been remarkable on both ends of special teams. Their power play is converting on a league-best 31% of their opportunities. Meanwhile, the Oilers penalty kill is the second-most efficient shorthanded unit in the NHL, with an 86.3% success rate.
Unfortunately, they aren’t nearly as good at 5v5. Special teams don’t really mean much in the playoffs. Ultimately, you have to be able to score at full strength to win the Stanley Cup. The Boston Bruins power play was outstanding in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but they couldn’t overcome their pedestrian 5v5 scoring.
Entering Dec. 6, the Oilers rank 17th in 5v5 goals per hour, with 2.45. They also rank 15th in expected 5v5 goals per hour. The Oilers are going to need to be better at full strength in order to make a long playoff run. It’s going to be hard to find upgrades from outside the organization because Peter Chiarelli left the franchise in bad shape.
Scoring Depth
The biggest concern for the Oilers right now is what happens when McDavid and Draisaitl aren’t on the ice. Together, they form a nearly unstoppable duo. When at least one of the two players are on the ice, the Oilers look like a playoff team. But when they aren’t, they’re noticeably worse.
Oilers with McDavid and Drasaitl (418:24)
- 5v5 goals for per hour: 4.3
- 5v5 goals against per hour: 3.15
- 5v5 goal differential: +8
Oilers with McDavid (87:13)
- 5v5 goals for per hour: 2.75
- 5v5 goals against per hour: 2.06
- 5v5 goal differential: +1
Oilers with Draisaitl (73:40)
- 5v5 goals for per hour: 3.26
- 5v5 goals against per hour: 4.07
- 5v5 goal differential: -1
Oilers without McDavid and Draisaitl (867:52)
- 5v5 goals for per hour: 1.45
- 5v5 goals against per hour: 2.42
- 5v5 goal differential: -14
That sums up how the Oilers managed to miss the playoffs last season despite getting one of the most productive seasons of the salary cap era from McDavid and a 50 goal season from Draisaitl. Chiarelli left the Oilers with pathetic forward depth. You need depth to win the Stanley Cup because there are going to be nights when your best players don’t score.
Of course, every team is going to take a step back when their best players aren’t on the ice. But let’s look at some other teams without their top forward line on the ice.
Bruins without Marchand, Pastrnak, and Bergeron
- 5v5 goals for per hour: 2.07
- 5v5 goals against per hour: 1.46
Avalanche without MacKinnon and Donskoi*
- 5v5 goals for per hour: 2.52
- 5v5 goals against per hour: 2.07
* Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog have both missed significant time due to injury
The best teams are the teams who can score even when their best players aren’t on the ice. Right now, Edmonton doesn’t have that kind of depth. You have to feel bad for general manager Ken Holland and head coach Dave Tippett. It’s not their fault Chiarelli left the Oilers with a very bare cupboard. They deserve credit for helping the Oilers overcome their extremely obvious flaw.
So while the Oilers look like they’re a very good team on paper, there are some red flags. And unless those red flags are addressed, it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see the Oilers miss the playoffs altogether. The Vegas Golden Knights are playing better as of late and it appears the Arizona Coyotes are for real. If the San Jose Sharks or Vancouver Canucks can get things turned around, the Oilers could wind up on the outside looking in.