Vegas Golden Knights need more scoring from their centers

If the Vegas Golden Knights want to win the Stanley Cup, they’re going to have to get more production from their centers.

The Vegas Golden Knights have had an incredible amount of success in the NHL. In their first season, they made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. Their second season saw them make the postseason again. However, the Golden Knights have a huge issue they need to address if they want to win the Stanley Cup – their center depth.

Jesse Granger from The Athletic notes that teams who have won the Stanley Cup have been strong down the middle. A lot of people say contenders need to be built down the middle, and the stats back up the assertion.

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In 2017-18, the Golden Knights were strong down the middle. Their top three centers were, in order, William Karlsson, Erik Haula, and Cody Eakin. Combined, the trio put up 159 points.

Last season, Karlsson, Paul Stastny, and Eakin combined for 149 points. However, that deserves an asterisk because Stastny had 42 points in 50 games. This season, through 36 games, Karlsson, Stastny, and Eakin have 49 points, though Eakin has played in just 24 games. The Knights on pace to get 125 points from those three guys.

Let’s take a look at what each champion in the post-2013 lockout era has gotten from their top three centers.

POINTS FROM TOP THREE CENTERS

• 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks: 128*
• 2013-14 Los Angeles Kings: 161
• 2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks: 129
• 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins: 172
• 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins: 198
• 2017-18 Washington Capitals: 192
• 2018-19 St. Louis Blues: 169

*prorated for an 82 game season

AVERAGE: 164 points

The Golden Knights have a long way to go to get to the average. They’ll need to get 115 points from their centers in their last 46 games to match that average. How tough will that be? A lot tougher than it sounds. For reference, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid have combined for 114 points in 35 games each for the Edmonton Oilers.

As you can see, the Blackhawks didn’t get too much from their top three centers during their Stanley Cup years. But the Knights are not built like they were. The Blackhawks had an excellent defense and arguably the most proficient American forward of all-time in Patrick Kane. Vegas doesn’t have a Duncan Keith, nor do they have a Kane.

Is it fair to compare the Golden Knights centers to guys like Sidney Crosby, Anze Kopitar, Evgeni Malkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, and Ryan O’Reilly? Perhaps not. But if the Knights want to win a Stanley Cup, the comparison, no matter how unfair it is, is noteworthy.

Now, let’s address the one center who is not a part of the problem – Karlsson. He’s been as good as advertised. Karlsson has 28 points through 36 games while leading the Knights in faceoffs. Think of Karlsson as a lesser version of Jonathan Toews during the Blackhawks’ Stanley Cup years. Much like Captain Serious, he gives you a ton of production while taking on tough competition and playing during all situations.

The issue has been just about everyone else. In particular, Stastny is producing way below his career rates.

STASTNY’S NUMBERS

• Career points per game: 0.77
• 2019-20 points per game: 0.38
• Career assists per game: 0.51
• 2019-20 assists per game: 0.17

However, there should be optimism because I feel like he’s going to bounce back. The Golden Knights are shooting 7.1% at 5v5 with him on the ice. If that holds up, it will be his lowest mark since the 2012-13 season with the Colorado Avalanche.

Also, Stastny has been on the ice for 13 goals for this season. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Knights have 20.58 expected goals scored with him on the ice. I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I’d bet on a bit of a resurgence.

The biggest issue, though, has been the Knights’ third-line centers. Even if you combine the numbers from Eakin and Glass, 18 points in 32 games aren’t going to cut it, especially with Stastny’s woes. Eakin ranks ninth among Vegas forwards in 5v5 points per hour while Glass ranks 11th. They’re probably going to have to explore a trade to find an upgrade there.

The addition of Chandler Stephenson has helped, as he has four points in his first seven games while taking about eight faceoffs per game. He’s been impressive, but his history suggests he’s probably not going to keep up his current production. But still, Stephenson has been a bit of a blessing.

Regardless of how the Knights get more production from their centers, they need more. Vegas is clearly all in. You don’t give out the deals they have without wanting to win now, as opposed to later. For the Knights to do that, they must improve down the middle.