Boston Bruins should avoid signing Ilya Kovalchuk

The Boston Bruins have been linked to free agent forward Ilya Kovalchuk. However, they would be wise to stay away from him.

It’s not a secret the Boston Bruins desperately need forward depth. 29 of their 84 5v5 goals have come from Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak. Only three of their forwards have at least 10 goals during all situations. The worst kept secret in the NHL is the Bruins reliance on Pastrnak, Marchand, and Patrice Bergeron.

General Manager Don Sweeney has made it an annual tradition to add a scoring wing at the trade deadline. In 2018, he traded for Rick Nash. 2019 saw him add Marcus Johansson. It’s safe to assume Sweeney will add someone from outside the organization.

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Recently, the Los Angeles Kings parted ways with Ilya Kovalchuk by terminating his contract. Though he’s had interest from KHL teams, he reportedly wants to stay in the NHL and play for a contender, according to KHL writer Igor Eronko. Eronko also noted he’s interested in the Bruins. David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period is reporting the interest is mutual.

It’s not hard to see why the Bruins are interested in Kovalchuk. Their right-wing depth desperately needs some help. At some point, Sweeney is going to have to add someone like Chris Kreider or Tyler Toffoli. Could Kovalchuk be the answer?

The Case For Kovalchuk

Signing Kovalchuk would only make sense for the Bruins if he is willing to sign a deal for the league minimum and he is willing to be a team player. Would signing someone like him hurt the Bruins? In a vacuum, probably not.

The Case Against Kovalchuk

The Bruins could give him a chance and hope he can find his old magic. Kovalchuk still has an impressive shot. And, as I mentioned earlier, the Bruins right-wing depth is unimpressive at best. However, Kovalchuk’s perceived value is higher than his actual value at this point.

Last season, Evolving Hockey’s GAR model ranked Kovalchuk’s -0.6 WAR as the 27th-worst among forwards (minimum 500 minutes). This season, his WAR/60 is the 20th-worst among forwards.

Kovalchuk might still have a great shot, but the fact is he’s not scoring at 5v5, which is where the Boston Bruins desperately need help. Since signing with the Los Angeles Kings during the 2018 offseason, he has scored 0.64 5v5 goals per hour in 81 games. Among the 378 forwards with at least 500 5v5 minutes over the past two seasons, that ranks 218th. His 1.52 5v5 points per hour rank 226th.

He also hasn’t done much on the power play, as he ranks 150th in power play goals per hour during the same span. And even if Kovalchuk was still good on the power play, he wouldn’t make too much sense for the Bruins.

There’s no chance he would crack their top unit, which is one of the most effective power play units in the NHL. The Bruins top unit is also one of the most used. They’ve spent 183:34 on the power play so far this season. All but 44:46 has been with at least one of Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak on the ice. Even if Kovalchuk could bring something to the second unit, the Bruins rarely even use their second unit anyway, so his impact would be minimal.

Any offense that Kovalchuk brings isn’t worth it. That’s because defensively, he’s been awful. If Kovalchuk was still creating offense at a borderline elite level, which he did for most of his initial stint in the NHL from 2001 to 2013, you could overlook his defensive issues. But now that Kovalchuk’s not scoring and he’s not nearly as fast as he used to be, his defensive deficiencies are a huge concern.

Those defensive issues are a huge problem. Boston Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy gives his fourth lines a healthy dose of defensive zone starts and he expects them to handle them well. To their credit, they have done precisely that. Kovalchuk obviously wouldn’t make sense in such a role.

The Boston Bruins would lose nothing meaningful by giving Kovalchuk a chance. The worst thing that could happen is he wouldn’t work out for them and the Bruins would just let him go. However, they’d be wise to explore other options that could provide them with more upside.