Tampa Bay Lightning: Anthony Cirelli should be in the Selke Trophy race

Tampa Bay Lightning forward Anthony Cirelli is the most underrated players in the NHL. His defense is why, and it’s why he should be a Selke candidate.

The Selke Trophy is handed out at the end of every season to the forward that played at a high level in both the offensive and defensive zones. In years past, Anze Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron dominated the votes. That being said, one player who has flown completely under the radar due to flaws in the award voting process is Anthony Cirelli of Tampa Bay Lightning.

For those that don’t know Cirelli, it’s time you did. He has played three separate seasons’ with the Tampa Bay Lightning, playing in a combined 145 games, recording 33 goals and 46 assists for 79 total points.

However, the often-overlooked stats are where Cirelli has shined. His takeaway to giveaway ratio is a lopsided 92 takeaways to 36 giveaways in his career. Cirelli has also never gone below a 52.6% CorsiFor percentage in the three separate seasons he has played, with a career CF% of 53.55%.

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This season, Cirelli has played 45 games, recording 9 goals and 20 assists for 29 points, putting him on pace to surpass his career-high of 39 points, which he set last season. One note to keep in mind is he finished 11th in Selke trophy votes last season. However, Cirelli deserves a much better ranking this time around and he hasn’t been getting enough attention for his incredible work.

What to look for

A lot of fans, including myself, do not know what exactly is taken into account when votes are cast for trophies. However, here are some basic analytics that are taken into consideration.

The Lightning consist of several high-end stars with Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, and Ryan McDonagh. It’s telling how much trust Cirelli has earned from the coaches when he’s ranked fifth on the roster in total minutes, trailing three defensemen (Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev, Kevin Shattenkirk) and one forward (Kucherov). He also ranks seventh in total minutes per game.

Another stat to look at is penalty killing stats. Since the Selke is awarded to the best defensive forward, voters look at the penalty kill as a vital part of who gets votes. Cirelli has the second-most shorthanded minutes on the Lightning, behind only Ryan McDonagh. In the entire league, he’s played the third-most shorthanded minutes among forwards, behind Travis Zajac and Blake Coleman.

One last basic stat, and this may shock you, is faceoff success. High win percentages on faceoffs are heavily weighed into the Selke trophy vote, hence why Bergeron is almost always a finalist. When you win a faceoff, you take a 50/50 puck battle and you give your team possession. Unfortunately, this is where Cirelli takes a hit. So far this season, he checks in at 48.2% in faceoff win percentage. He ranks as the 16th worst player in faceoffs, among players with at least 838 total minutes of ice time.

To slowly move towards advanced stats, one pops into mind. The amount of times a player draws a penalty becomes important, as it thrusts your team into a position to go on the man advantage. Cirelli ranks tied for fourth in the entire league when it comes to drawing penalties, with 23.

NaturalStatTrick calculates the number of scoring chances allowed by individual NHL players. That seems to have some importance when judging a forwards defensive effectiveness, so I looked into it. Among all players with at least 650 minutes in even-strength, Cirelli ranks third, with 253, behind Jordan Staal and Dominik Simon. He is also tied for seventh in the league among those same qualified forwards in high-danger scoring chances allowed with 101.

Two stats that are still somewhat developing is Goals Above Replacement and Wins Above Replacement. Cirelli ranks favorably in both those metrics, as he ranks first among all forwards with 750+ total minutes and 100+ minutes of PK time in both WAR and GAR, per Evolving-Hockey. Finally, he ranks favorably in expected goals against (9th), total goals against (11th), goals for% (10th), expected goals for% (11th), scoring chances for% (9th), and high-danger chances for% (9th).

Ultimately, Cirelli will likely not win the Selke trophy. However, he has a lot of stats that favor him when it comes to his defensive game. The minute he starts producing at, or around, a point-per-game, then Cirelli should absolutely begin winning that award. However, I simply believe he deserves far more credit than he has received.