NHL Awards: Top midseason picks and predictions

The post-All-Star break portion of the 2019-20 NHL season is here. Here are our picks and predictions for all the major NHL awards and a few awards we just made up.

Today’s the final day of the NHL All-Star Break, so now’s a good time to start thinking about the NHL awards and the top contenders for each award. This season, there should be a few very close races and most of the awards have not been locked up yet.

We’ve also decided to add a few of our awards because we like to have fun and reward hilarious performances. So without further ado, here are our picks and predictions for all the major NHL awards, and a few awards we just made up!

Hart Trophy

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A very good case could be had for Nathan MacKinnon, who has nearly double the 5v5 points (40) as the next Colorado Avalanche forward (Andre Burakovsky with 22). His 72 points are more than double of the next Avs forward (Mikko Rantanen with 34).

Let’s go further. MacKinnon has 30 goals, which is 13 more than Nazem Kadri. His 42 assists are 23 more than Rantanen’s 19. MacKinnon has carried the Avalanche this season as they’ve battled through numerous injuries.

Honorable mentions: Connor McDavid is dragging the Edmonton Oilers through a rather mediocre Pacific Division. McDavid leads the NHL with 76 points. His teammate Leon Draisaitl is right behind him at 75 points, but it’s clear McDavid’s the better player.

The Oilers have scored 95 5v5 goals so far this season. McDavid’s been involved in 39 of them and on the ice for 48 of them. At all strengths, Edmonton’s captain has played a role in 76 of their 153 goals. However, I think Draisaitl is going to hurt McDavid’s chances of winning.

It’s obvious McDavid is the best player, but the Hart Trophy doesn’t go to the best player, it goes to the most valuable player. That’s MacKinnon.

David Pastrnak is very valuable to the Boston Bruins. He’s emerged as the best player on the NHL’s best forward line.

Ted Lindsay Award

McDavid’s the best player in the NHL, so the award for “most outstanding player” should go to him. Expect players like MacKinnon, Draisaitl, and Pastrnak to get some serious consideration as well.

Norris Trophy

This is probably the easiest award to hand out. John Carlson of the Washington Capitals has a 12 point lead among defensemen for points, as he leads them with 60 points. It’s going to take a pretty impressive hot streak from Roman Josi or Victor Hedman to get close to him. Carlson’s a part of a Capitals team that is among the top scoring teams in the NHL.

Honorable mentions: Dougie Hamilton would be in the conversation, but his broken leg has ended his candidacy. Which is sad because he was truly having an outstanding year and I think he had a decent shot at winning. Josi and Hedman should provide some competition for Carlson, but his lead in points is pretty darn impressive.

Vezina Trophy

I’m going to separate this into two categories – who I think should win and who I think will win.

Think should win: Robin Lehner of the Chicago Blackhawks should be a finalist if the Blackhawks finish anywhere close to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Their defense has been horrendous, as Lehner has faced the most shots against per hour, both at 5v5 (35.82) and at all strengths (36.59). At all strengths, he has also faced the third-most expected goals against (2.82).

Despite this, Lehner owns the fifth-best save percentage during all situations and the seventh-best at 5v5. He’s been the Blackhawks best player and he has stolen quite a few games for them already.

Think will win: Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning started the season very slow, but has been excellent as of late. His 24 wins lead the NHL and his .917% save percentage, on paper, looks pretty darn good. Vasilevskiy is having the kind of season general managers tend to reward with a Vezina Trophy.

Honorable mentions: Connor Hellebuyck belongs in the discussion, but he’s been a bit cold as of late. Also, the Winnipeg Jets aren’t giving him too much help. He’s basically in the same boat as Lehner. Darcy Kuemper of the Arizona Coyotes will need to bounce back strong from an injury that has kept him out for a bit. Injuries are always hard to predict for goalies, though.

As usual, Ben Bishop is doing a great job with the Dallas Stars. History shows goalies with lesser workloads often don’t get rewarded with Vezina Trophies. Unfortunately, Bishop’s only played in 32 of the Stars 48 games, so it looks like he could be a victim of the Stars managing his load again. Thomas Greiss of the New York Islanders is having a terrific season, but he’s in the same boat as Bishop.

Selke Trophy

This could be the season Sean Couturier finally gets the recognition he has warranted for quite some time. He keeps on falling just short in the Selke Trophy voting, but this season, he’s the favorite heading into the second half.

The Flyers are outscoring their opponents 39-23 at 5v5 with Couturier on the ice. As a team, they’re being outscored 103 to 105 at 5v5. Couturier also possesses very strong underlying stats, as he’s among the NHL’s leaders in relative CorsiFor%, relative xGF%, and relative SCF%.

Honorable mentions: Patrice Bergeron, as usual, is a very strong candidate for the Selke. He’s posting his usual outstanding underlying numbers while still producing at an impressive rate. Likewise with Ryan O’Reilly. J.T. Miller, Mark Stone, and Anthony Cirelli should be in the discussion, but the first two are wings and Selke Trophy voters tend not to be kind to them. Meanwhole, Cirelli doesn’t have the heavy minutes that voters typically like to see.

Lady Byng

It’s not too hard to vote for this one at the end of the year. Simply look for a player with a lot of time on ice, but very few penalty minutes. Right now, the winner should be Marc-Edouard Vlasic of the San Jose Sharks. He’s played over 1,000 minutes so far this season and only has four penalty minutes. That’s unbelievable for a defenseman.

Honorable mentions: William Karlsson is remarkably good at not committing penalties. So is O’Reilly, who has the added bonus of being a previous winner. MacKinnon should be in the running as well.

Jack Adams Trophy

It’s a four-horse race right now between Barry Trotz, Mike Sullivan, Craig Berube, and John Tortorella. Whichever team wins the Pacific will likely see their coach enter the conversation as well. But right now, Sullivan’s my pick.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have had countless injuries this season. While the Blue Jackets have had the same issue, the Penguins have lost some of their best players. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have both missed significant time. Plus, Jake Guentzel is out for the rest of the season. Yet the Penguins are still one of the best teams in the NHL. That’s a sign of really good coaching.

Tortorella absolutely should be a finalist right now. He has the Blue Jackets playing impressive hockey. However, Tortorella better hope his goaltending remains as excellent as it has been as of late.

Sullivan has deserved a Jack Adams Award, but has never won one. This season, I’d expect that error to be remedied.

Calder Trophy

This one was by far the hardest. It came down to Cale Makar versus Quinn Hughes, and I elected to go with the former. Makar has been slightly more impressive than Hughes, especially on offense. Hughes made this extremely tough for me, but I’ve got to give the nod to Makar.

Honorable mentions: Victor Olofsson has been very impressive for the Sabres, but a recent injury leaves him behind the rest of the pack. Dominik Kubalik of the Blackhawk leads all rookies with 21 goals. John Marino of the Penguins has been a very pleasant surprise on a blueline that has needed healthy bodies. Adam Fox of the Rangers has been even better than advertised.

Want a darkhorse candidate? Look no further than Washington Capitals goaltender Ilya Samsonov. He’s their backup right now, but the Caps have been giving him more starts as of late. Among goalies with at least 19 appearances, he ranks fourth in save percentage and first in GAA. If Samsonov can earn the starting role, it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s a finalist. But history isn’t on his side.

Rocket Richard

Let’s not kid ourselves, Alex Ovechkin’s going to win it. Sure, Pastrnak and Matthews should make the goal-scoring race a very fascinating one. But something tells me Ovechkin’s not ready to get off his throne.

Not Actually Real Awards

Now it’s time for some fun awards. These are not actual awards, we just made them up. They will reward interesting, quirky, or funny stats. People say numbers are boring, but they’re wrong. They’re just looking at the wrong numbers.

Cy Young Award

The Cy Young Award in the NHL goes to the player with the goals to assists ratio that best resembles a Cy Young-winning pitcher in baseball. If you’re not familiar with baseball, pitchers with a lot of wins and very few losses are usually the top contenders (though this has changed in recent years).

Noel Acciari of the Florida Panthers is our pick with an eye-popping 18 goals and 3 assists. Through 48 games, he has already nearly doubled his previous career-high in goals (10). Also, Acciari has as many goals this season as he had in his career before this season. He probably won’t keep up his current pace, but we’d love to be proven wrong.

Most Underrated Player

No, it’s not Aleksander Barkov. He’s a terrific player, but at this point, he’s so “underrated”, he might actually be starting to become overrated. No, it’s not Nicklas Backstrom either. Though it is one of his teammates.

Guess which forward is first in 5v5 goals per hour this season? Pastrnak would be a good guess. As would Auston Matthews. So would Alex Ovechkin! But all of those answers would be wrong. It’s Jakub Vrana of the Capitals. He’s also fifth in overall goals per hour despite not getting much power play time.

With 22 goals, he’s one of the 29 forwards with at least 20 goals this season. Among those forwards, Vrana has the second-lowest average time on ice per game. He’s also sixth among NHL forwards in 5v5 points per hour. It’s easy to be underrated when the greatest goal scorer ever is on your team.

Breakout Player Of The Year

This award is pretty self-explanatory. It’s a two-horse race between Bryan Rust of the Penguins and Anthony Duclair of the Senators. Rust is having a terrific season and he’s had to be great with the Penguins having a ton of injuries. However, the winner is Duclair. Duclair’s career was in jeopardy less than 12 months ago. Now he’s a building block for a rebuilding franchise. Rust is benefitting from playing with some pretty great players. Duclair doesn’t have that luxury.

The Joe Thornton Award

Joe Thornton is one of my favorite players of all-time. So I came up with an award befitting of his unwavering commitment to not scoring goals but still racking up points. This award is similar to the Cy Young award, except it goes to the forward who best exemplifies Thornton’s penchant for assists.

Our inaugural winner is none other than… Joe Thornton! He has two goals and 17 assists this season for 19 points. Never change, Jumbo Joe. Joel Eriksson Ek (4 goals, 17 assists) and Alexander Wennberg (5 goals, 15 assists) were also considered.

The Anti-Art Ross Trophy

I’ll have to think of a better name for this, but this award goes to the NHL’s least productive player. This award goes to not just one skater, but a group of them. A group so incompetent, you can’t help but drop your jaw in awe of how bad they are. Yes, I’m talking about the 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings.

366 forwards have played at least 300 5v5 minutes so far this season. 13 of them are Red Wings. Anthony Mantha (who is likely out for the rest of the season) is the only Red Wings forward in the top 50 in 5v5 points per hour. Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin, and Robby Fabbri are the only others in the top 183 forwards (50th percentile).

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Justin Abdelkader, Valtteri Filppula, Luke Glendening, Frans Nielsen, Adam Erne, and Christoffer Ehn are all ranked at or below 300th. In fact, the Red Wings forwards account for five of the eight lowest 5v5 points per hour rates. It takes an almost impressive lack of skill and luck to be as bad as the Red Wings.

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