Tampa Bay Lightning made a huge mistake trading for Blake Coleman

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have dealt Vancouver’s 2020 conditional first-round pick and forward prospect Nolan Foote to the New Jersey Devils for Blake Coleman. Here’s why this trade is an absolutely awful move by Tampa Bay.

First of all, before I go on a rampage, here’s what the Tampa Bay Lightning are getting in Blake Coleman. In 57 games played with New Jersey this season, Coleman has recorded 21 goals and 10 assists for 31 points, all while averaging a hair over 17 minutes a game.

In his previous three seasons, he scored 1, 13 and 22 goals, in that order, improving each passing season. His emergence on the Devils is one that happened fast and due to a few things out of the Devils control. He was the player given extra ice time when Taylor Hall, among others, went down with injuries last season. Coleman took advantage of those openings and carved out a top-6 role with the Devils.

This season, Coleman continued his year-to-year improvement, as he is set to shatter his previous career-high of 22 goals and 36 points. While Coleman has been improving upon his offensive capabilities, he hasn’t gotten away from his bread-and-butter style of play, which is aggressive and physically imposing.

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His last two seasons, he eclipsed the 200 hit mark, and so far this season he sits at 166. Coleman averages 2.8 hits a game, so it’s fair to assume he’ll have about 3 hits in every game. Not just that, but he has an impressive takeaway to giveaway ratio of 42-19 in his career, which is a +23 differential.

Coleman also blocks a lot of shots, as he eclipsed 50 in 2017-18 and passed 40 in 2018-19. This season, he has 40 shot blocks, meaning there is a strong chance that he could surpass his career-high this year.

Over the last three seasons, per Corsica-hockey, Coleman is tied for 4th on the Devils for points in all situations, recording 91. Of those 91 points, 78 were primary, which ranked 4th on the Devils in that same span.

However, Coleman is 32nd out of 54 total players in that same span in CF%, meaning he isn’t exactly a good possession player, recording a 44.9% in that metric. He also ranks unfavorably in goals-for%, as he has been on the ice for 149 goals for, while also being on the ice for 205 goals against (which is a -56) for a 42.09 GF% (ranks 33rd/54). For those who favor expected goals over actual goals, then guess what? He doesn’t rank high there either, with a 45.68 xGF%.

Coleman has only played a hair over 92 total minutes on the powerplay over the last three seasons and has recorded three goals and one assist on the man advantage in that span, so he wasn’t acquired to provide more help on the PP.

However, he has played the second-most penalty killing time for New Jersey in that same span, behind only Andy Greene, who was also traded today. Coleman has provided 12 short-handed points, all of them being primary. He has arguably been the best PK player for the Devils over the last three seasons, so ultimately the Tampa Bay Lightning added a PK specialist with some offensive upside.

Why This Is A Bad Trade For The Lightning

First of all, Coleman has only recently begun generating offense at a respectable rate. He has never eclipsed the 50-point mark in his career. Not only that, but he needed injuries to top-six players on the Devils to even get an opportunity to get a spot on the Devils top-six.

Coleman is 28 years old, which tells me he is at the tip of the iceberg in terms of his production as he is right in the middle of his prime years. If he is able to hit the 50-point mark, it might be the only time in his career that he’ll do it.

For a guy with half-decent production and a solid PK resume, I don’t mind the addition. I actually like the idea of adding a guy like Coleman, because he plays a style that would find a ton of success in the playoffs. But Coleman also has term left on his deal, he’s not just a rental.

Sure, he takes up just $1.8 million of the total cap space, but the Tampa Bay Lightning have enough salary cap problems as it is. Not to mention that, but they also have three important upcoming restricted free agents – Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli, and Erik Cernak.

I’ve done a lot of research already into how the Tampa Bay Lightning could possibly retain all three guys, but with how tight the Tampa Bay Lightning already are to the cap, and not to mention all of the players signed with no-trade clauses, it’s extremely difficult to see them all returning. Adding Coleman to the books all but guarantees at least one of those three players are likely leaving this off-season.

So let’s say Cirelli leaves. Add that to the fact that the Lightning gave up a conditional first-round pick, which is looking more like a 2020 selection as we near the end of the season, as well as a forward prospect in Nolan Foote who was the Lightning’s first-round choice in the last draft, and you have an absolutely ridiculous giveaway of assets.

First of all, any of those three guys leaving would absolutely hurt their roster. Not to mention, if the first-round pick is, in fact, a 2020 first-rounder, then they lose out in a draft that is stockpiled with incredible talent.

I was unhappy with the selection of Nolan Foote at first. He’s a big body with an incredible shot. However, he isn’t anything special, and he isn’t a great skater. It was obvious the Lightning reached when they selected him, as he was a projected mid-to-late second-round pick in 2019, and the Lightning grabbed him late in the first.

However, he has taken a big leap this season in his development, recording 15 goals and 18 assists for 33 points in 26 games with the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL. He also added an additional three goals and five points in seven games with Team Canada in the U20 World Junior Championships, winning a gold medal.

In my eyes, he wasn’t going to go anywhere for at least a couple seasons, as he joined his brother in the Lightning organization and was Julien BriseBois first-ever pick as the Lightning GM.

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The fact that the Lightning are giving up basically two first-round picks for a middle-six forward who can kill penalties and risking the loss of three major pieces of the roster this off-season is beyond me and, quite honestly, very confusing. All I have to say is the Lightning better not get swept in round one, again.

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