Boston Bruins trading for Josh Anderson would be risky

The Boston Bruins are reportedly very interested in trading for Columbus Blue Jackets forward Josh Anderson. But would he be worth it?

The Boston Bruins are, as expected, looking to add to a roster that made the Stanley Cup Final last season. It’s an annual tradition, as general manager Don Sweeney usually trades for at least one forward every year. He did it in 2018 with Rick Nash. Last year, Sweeney doubled down, trading for Charlie Coyle and Marcus Johansson.

This year, New York Rangers forward Chris Kreider is the most coveted forward on the market for the Bruins. With less than a week to go until the trade deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising if Kreider winds up being traded to the Bruins. He’s a typical B’s forward, in that he’s big, physical, fast, and skilled.

Big, physical, fast, and skilled forwards are unicorns in today’s NHL. If you have one, you better keep him. If you have one, you’re probably looking to add another one. And you can never have enough. The Bruins have a plan B in case they don’t get Kreider.

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According to NBC Sports Boston‘s Joe Haggerty, the Bruins are also taking a deep look at Columbus Blue Jackets forward Josh Anderson.

Anderson has had an injury-ridden season this year, as he’s played in merely 26 games thanks to a shoulder injury. In those 26 games, he has just four points, which on paper, doesn’t look good. However, a deeper dive explains those numbers.

First of all, Anderson has shown he’s been than this in the past. Just last season, he put up 47 points in 82 games. Back in 2017-18, Anderson had 30 points in 63 games. At 6’3″ and 222 pounds, few forwards are as big and skilled as him.

Secondly, let’s look at some numbers from this season. Anderson has a 1.6% shooting percentage. Listen, I have a horrible shot, but even I could do better than that. Granted, that’s in beer league, but you get my point. Anderson’s 1.6% shooting percentage this season is way below what it has been in the past. Let’s look at his shooting percentages by season.

2016-17: 14.3%
2017-18: 10.1%
2018-19: 11.7%
2019-20: 1.6%

It’s pretty easy to tell which one is the outlier. Additionally, Anderson’s had some awful puck luck this season. There are certain things a skater can’t really control. One of them is his goaltending. Anderson can’t do a darn thing to make his goalies get a save. Another of one of those things is what his teammates do. Anderson can deliver a perfect pass to a teammate, but he can’t make him score.

At 5v5 this season, the Blue Jackets’ goalies have a 90.57% save percentage with Anderson on the ice. Meanwhile, Columbus has a 5.95% shooting percentage at 5v5 with him on the ice. This adds up to a 96.5 PDO (save percentage plus on-ice shooting percentage), which is in the bottom 10th percentile among forwards with at least 300 5v5 minutes played.

Also, Anderson last played on December 14 against the Ottawa Senators. He injured his shoulder during a fight and hasn’t played since then. From the start of the season until December 14, the Blue Jackets had a team PDO of 0.985, which was one of the lowest marks in the NHL.

Admittedly, Anderson would be a bit of a risky acquisition. After all, he’s not having a good year and he hasn’t played in two months (and counting). Also, it’s worth noting shoulder injuries are tricky and can affect players for the rest of their career.

If Anderson is a buy-low candidate, the Boston Bruins should be all over him. However, I don’t believe the Blue Jackets view Anderson in that manner. As I mentioned earlier, forwards like Anderson are quite rare. Only three forwards had at least 200 hits and at least 40 points during the 2018-19 season – Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin, and Anderson.

It would be very unwise for the Blue Jackets to sell low on Anderson, given how rare his skillset is. To get him, it will likely cost the Bruins a similar package as the one the Tampa Bay Lightning gave up for Blake Coleman (who narrowly missed being in the group of players with at least 200 hits and 40 points).

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The Boston Bruins should definitely keep an eye on Anderson. He’s a nasty, skilled forward and the Bruins got to see that first hand in the playoffs last season. However, the cost for Anderson makes him a huge risk. But at the same time, he has so much untapped potential, it could be worth it.

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