Toronto Maple Leafs need to give Jack Campbell more starts

For the past few years, the Toronto Maple Leafs have relied on Frederik Andersen to mask their flaws. But with his recent struggles, it’s Jack Campbell’s turn.

The Toronto Maple Leafs came into this season knowing they were going to have issues defensively. However, they thought they had a safety valve in Frederik Andersen, who they’ve relied on in the past to mask their flaws. What the Leafs weren’t expecting was for Andersen to stop being that safety valve.

For the first few months in the season, Andersen was able to be that safety valve. But lately, he hasn’t been reliable. In 11 starts since the All-Star break, he has a .894% save percentage.

Andersen’s numbers are even less impressive once you look at his advanced stats. Evolving Hockey puts his GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) at -14.49, which ranks 36th among the 38 goalies with at least 1,200 minutes of playing time.

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That’s a pretty clear decline from his previous seasons.

2016-17: 18.72
2017-18: 10.37
2018-19: 8.42
2019-20: -14.49

Goals saved above expected isn’t perfect, but it paints a pretty accurate picture. Andersen isn’t doing nearly as well as he used to. It’s understandable why the Maple Leafs have stuck with him despite his struggles. Andersen’s been so great for them the past three seasons. But now it’s time for the Leafs to turn to their other option – Jack Campbell.

If nothing else, giving Campbell more starts could give Andersen some time to reset and get his body (and mind) back on track. The Leafs are going to need very strong goaltending to win the Stanley Cup. Given Andersen’s strong numbers in the past, it’s not outlandish to see him being a part of that solution.

Campbell’s sample size, of course, is a bit smaller than Andersen’s. Andersen has 242 appearances since the start of the 2016-17 season while Campbell has just 61 appearances. Plus, Campbell has only played in four games with the Maple Leafs. But in those four games, he’s been solid, posting a GSAx of 0.55.

To be fair to Andersen, the Leafs have been pushing him pretty hard since the start of the 2016-17 season. His 242 games played are the most among all goaltenders during that span. Maybe Andersen’s starting to break down. It would certainly explain his recent decline.

Campbell, frankly, has earned more starts. The Leafs felt quite confident in trading for him. Campbell’s proven to be, at worst, a very capable backup. They only need him four times since trading for him on Feb. 6. After allowing four goals to the Anaheim Ducks in his first start, Campbell has allowed just two goals in each of his last three appearances.

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The Leafs are probably going to need both Andersen and Campbell to win the Stanley Cup. But right now, they need the former to get back on track and the latter to get more playing time.

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