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Calgary Flames: Johnny Gaudreau is heating up at the right time

By Dave Stevenson

MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 13: Johnny Gaudreau #13 of the Calgary Flames looks on against the Montreal Canadiens during the third period at the Bell Centre on January 13, 2020 in Montreal, Canada. The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Calgary Flames 2-0. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 13: Johnny Gaudreau #13 of the Calgary Flames looks on against the Montreal Canadiens during the third period at the Bell Centre on January 13, 2020 in Montreal, Canada. The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Calgary Flames 2-0. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /
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Johnny Gaudreau is on fire for the Calgary Flames. And he couldn’t be heating up at a better time, as they’re in the midst of a race for the postseason.

The Calgary Flames were counting on Johnny Gaudreau to remain excellent this season. After all, the diminutive, but talented, forward was coming off two consecutive seasons with at least a point per game pace, including a career-high 36 goals and 99 points during the 2018-19 season.

However, Gaudreau has had it rough this season. Entering the All-Star break, he had 38 points in 50 games, a clear decline from his previous two seasons. 26 of those points came at even strength, which was tied with Matthew Tkachuk for the team lead.

A deeper dive, though, showed how big of a decline he had at even strength. At the time, Gaudreau was averaging 1.99 even strength points per hour. He averaged 2.84 points per hour during the 2017-18 season and 3.11 points per hour during the 2018-19 season.

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Though his struggles were mitigated by the emergence of Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm, Gaudreau had been the engine of the Flames even strength offense for the past two seasons. His decline was clearly hurting the Flames immensely.

Since the All-Star break, Gaudreau has gone back to being the engine that makes the Flames go. He has 20 points in 20 games since the All-Star break. Quietly, he’s well on pace to pick up his sixth straight season with at least 60 points. Assuming he does so, he’ll be in pretty good company.

Gaudreau’s points per hour rate since the All-Star break has risen to 2.60. While that’s still not up to his usual standards, his expected goals rate is right where it should be. When Gaudreau’s on the ice, the Flames have 3.23 expected goals per hour at even strength since the All-Star break. That’s second on the team, narrowly beaten out only by Andrew Mangiapane (3.24).

What’s encouraging is it’s even higher than it has been. In 2017-18, the Flames had 2.9 expected goals per hour with Gaudreau on the ice and in 2018-19, the Flames had 2.87. While his xGF% still isn’t that great, he’s at least doing what the Flames desperately need him to do – drive the team at even strength.

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The Flames currently sit in third place in the Pacific Division, but their spot in the playoffs certainly isn’t a given. They’re just three points ahead of the Vancouver Canucks and if the Flames don’t finish in the top three in the Pacific, they’ll have a plethora of competitors for the two wild-card spots. The Flames need Gaudreau to keep driving the team if they want to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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