April Fool’s Day: Top 3 NHL teams that fooled us all in 2020
On April Fool’s Day, let’s take a look at the NHL teams who we were all very wrong about this season.
It’s always fun to make preseason predictions. Every team has a chance to win the Stanley Cup! But every year, there are NHL teams who make their critics look silly. Though this season isn’t technically over yet, the regular season likely is, so now’s a great time to look back at my early predictions.
If you want to see my initial power rankings, you can check them here. Looking back at them, there were quite a few teams I was really wrong about. Both positively and negatively. Teams I thought would contend for a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs weren’t even close. There were also teams who I didn’t think would be contenders, but surprised me by contending.
I’m a proponent of laughing at myself and I also see a lot of value in going back and seeing why you were wrong about teams, so let’s go back and see which teams I was the most wrong about, and why I was wrong about them. Feel free to heckle me in the comments.
Honorable Mentions
Columbus Blue Jackets
I initially had the Columbus Blue Jackets ranked 26th. But to be fair, they were a very hard team to figure out before the season began. They had two inexperienced goaltenders and had just lost arguably their best player in franchise history in Artemi Panarin. Plus the Blue Jackets also lost Sergei Bobrovsky.
Now, with that said, I wasn’t incredibly low on the Blue Jackets. In fact…
In a tough Metropolitan Division where every team has at least one star, it’s going to be hard for Columbus to compete. But maybe that’s the kind of team head coach John Tortorella can thrive with.
Philadelphia Flyers
I wasn’t that wrong about the Philadelphia Flyers. Even back in October, I could see they had the potential to be a really good team. But the Flyers still had some huge questions to answer. Would Matt Niskanen and Justin Braun bounce back? Could Ivan Provorov continue to improve? Can Carter Hart and Brian Elliott prove to be an effective goaltending tandem? Would Alain Vigneault improve their defense enough to help out their already impressive offense?
The answer to all of those questions was “yes”. So in a way, the Flyers surprised me. But also, anyone who didn’t think they had the talent to be as good as they have been this season wasn’t looking at the big picture. That said, I didn’t think they’d be serious contenders to win the Metropolitan Division. But I don’t think anyone did back in October. If you did, congratulations!
3. Vancouver Canucks
What I thought: I thought the Vancouver Canucks were a talented team, but they were a bit too top-heavy for my liking. Back in October, I wasn’t sold on their goaltending. Even in a weak Pacific Division, I didn’t think they’d be serious contenders to make the playoffs, even in a best case scenario.
Why I was wrong: There were several things I was quite wrong about. The biggest thing I was wrong about was just how good Quinn Hughes would be as a rookie. Did I see him being a legitimate All-Star and borderline top pairing defenseman already? No. Hughes was always primed to have a special year, I just didn’t think he’d be one of the best defensemen in the NHL already.
Secondly, I underestimated the addition of J.T. Miller. To be fair, his spot in the lineup was a bit of a question mark. Would he play with Elias Pettersson or Bo Horvat? It turned to be primarily the former and they helped form a remarkably effective trio with Brock Boeser. Miller is having a fantastic season and I’ll be the first to admit I underestimated what he brings to the table.
Thirdly, nobody saw Jacob Markstrom being a very good goalie this season. He was always good, but this season, he’s taken his game to another level. Markstrom’s .918% save percentage is a career high. Thatcher Demko has been decent in a backup role, but for the first time in his career, Markstrom’s looking like a bona-fide starting goalie. Fourthly, the Pacific Division was way worse than many thought.
In short, the Canucks had a perfect storm happen. I’m still not sold on them as serious Stanley Cup contenders, but they’re clearly a lot further long than I initially thought.
2. Edmonton Oilers
What I thought: The Edmonton Oilers were a team that would have to lean too much on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. They comfortably missed the postseason during the 2018-19 season despite both players having outstanding seasons. The mere presence of McDavid and Draisaitl would have them somewhere decently close to the postseason, but I didn’t have much faith in them.
Why I was wrong: A few things stick out to me. First of all, Draisaitl’s a lot better than I thought he was. Heck, he’s a lot better than anyone thought. Draisaitl was coming off a season with an inflated shooting percentage of 21.6%. Only 13 players in the salary cap era had a shooting percentage of at least 21% while playing in at least 60 games, so I thought Draisaitl was due for some regression.
In theory, I was right! His shooting percentage dropped to just 19.7%, which is still the third-highest mark in the NHL (minimum 50 games played. But clearly, Draisaitl didn’t experience nearly as much regression as many thought.
Also, I thought Connor McDavid was by far the Oilers’ best player. This season, Draisaitl has proven the race is a heck of a lot closer than I thought. And man, that’s saying something. I still think it’s McDavid, but now an argument for Draisaitl makes sense.
Other factors include their elite penalty kill and power play, their improved defense under Dave Tippett, and Mike Smith somehow being a really good goalie again this late in his career. Again, the weak Pacific Division clearly helped the Oilers. But I’ll eat crow when I need to, so Oilers fans, if you want to serve me some, I deserve it and I like mine fried.
1. New Jersey Devils
What I thought: Many had the New Jersey Devils as serious contenders in the Eastern Conference. My optimism was a bit lower than that, but I still thought they had a good chance of earning a postseason spot. Ultimately, I had this to say in my preview.
The playoffs are a realistic goal for the Devils. If everything goes right for them, they could easily make the postseason. But unless the Islanders fall off (which is entirely possible), I don’t see it happening.
Why I was wrong: Almost nothing went right for the Devils this season. Rookie goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood has been remarkable in 2020, but his slow start coincided with his team’s slow start. This led to the Devils going six games before getting their first win and they left October with a 2-5-3 record.
They lost 17 of their first 26 games before firing head coach John Hynes. But by then, it was too late to save their season. Maybe if they fired Hynes earlier, they could have rebounded. But Hynes wasn’t the right coach for the team, and the Devils took too long to figure that out.
I thought P.K. Subban would bounce back big time this season. It turns out he did not. Maybe Subban is experiencing regression already. Subban is no longer the dynamic defenseman he was with the Montreal Canadiens and Nashville Predators. That hurt the Devils a lot.
Finally, it’s safe to say that just about everyone was wrong about Jack Hughes. I thought he could be a Calder Trophy contender. However, Hughes’ rookie campaign has been quiet unimpressive. If it’s over, he’ll have the 30th-fewest points per game of any rookie teenage forward drafted in the first-round in the salary cap era (minimum 50 games).
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It gets even worse when you compare his numbers to those of other first overall picks. Hughes had the least productive season of any first overall pick in the salary cap era. Yes, that includes Aaron Ekblad, who’s a defenseman. I’m not saying Hughes is a bust, but the Devils need him to be a lot better next season if they want to make the playoffs.