Projecting contracts for the Pittsburgh Penguins pending free agents

The Pittsburgh Penguins have various free agents to worry about this offseason. Let’s take a look and see what they should get.

At some point, NHL free agency will occur prior to the start of the new 2020-21 league year. Nobody knows when free agency will take place, but it will occur. The Pittsburgh Penguins have some important decisions to make.

Evolving Hockey has a tool that projects the contracts of pending UFAs and RFAs. They do not have goaltender projections listed yet, so that is why Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry are not included here.

From a player personnel standpoint, what the Penguins decide to do between the pipes is their biggest question and storyline heading into next season.

Justin Schultz

Projected AAV: $4,108,000

Contract term likelihood: According to this model, Justin Schultz is nearly just as likely to get a 1 year (22 percent chance) contract as he is a 3-year contract (23 percent). As a UFA, that is not great. If I were Schultz, I would settle for a one-year deal somewhere in an attempt to increase my value. His last two seasons have been frustrating to follow and watch.

The verdict: As I wrote last month, there are too many red flags here for the Penguins. Injuries, a significant dropoff in his tangible production, and inconsistent performance have made Schultz a shell of his former self. The emergence of rookie defender John Marino has also made the decision to let Schultz walk an easy one.

Jared McCann

Projected AAV: $3,185,000

Contract term likelihood: At 24 years old, it is quite possible that the Penguins view Jared McCann as a key contributor moving forward. He possesses the speed and skill that make him a great fit on this roster. While a 2-year contract is the most likely outcome (27 percent), there is a 21 percent chance of McCann signing a 5-year deal and a 20 percent chance that he signs a 6-year contract. He is an RFA, and a multi-year deal is very likely.

The verdict: Throughout his career, McCann has played in 78.1% of the games that his teams have played in. He has been pretty durable. McCann was rushed into the NHL by Vancouver and Florida. He has been a nice fit as a Penguin.

Per Natural Stat Trick, McCann ranks fifth amongst Penguins forwards in even-strength points per hour (2.01) and fifth in goals per hour (0.94) since arriving in Pittsburgh last February. I feel that McCann is most productive while playing center. I would prefer to sign McCann to a 4 or 5-year contract.

Conor Sheary

Projected AAV: $2,568,000

Contract term likelihood: The Penguins signed Conor Sheary to his current contract (3 years, $3 million per year) before trading him to the Sabres. After trading Dominik Kahun to re-acquire Sheary, I suspect the Penguins will want to retain him moving forward.

Sheary is 28 years of age and a 3-year contract is once again the most probable outcome (47 percent chance). A 2-year contract is the third most likely outcome and that is what I suspect the Penguins will prefer for the pending UFA. It is also noteworthy that Sheary is married to Mike Sullivan’s niece.

The verdict: Trading Kahun at the deadline was a decision that surprised me. I doubt that the Penguins view Sheary as a rental. They know and value his skillset and personality. I would bet the Penguins try to sign him to a 2-year contract.

By all accounts, Sidney Crosby enjoys having him on his wing. Sheary was also having a great season in terms of helping a bad Sabres team generate and suppress offense.

Dominik Simon

Projected AAV: $1,705,000

Contract term likelihood: There is a 33 percent chance that Dominik Simon ends up signing a 2-year contract. A 3-year contract is the second most probable outcome with a 23 percent chance of occurring. The 25-year-old is a pending RFA.

The verdict: From a possession standpoint, Simon did not repeat his 2018-19 season. The majority of his advanced stats dropped off in 2019-20 but were still above average. With forward prospect Drew O’Connor likely to see NHL action next season, I could envision a scenario in which the Penguins trade or do not re-sign Simon.

It is important to note that Crosby enjoys playing alongside him. An argument can be made for Simon being one of the best passers on this team. Simon has excellent vision and has the ability to find open ice. Personally, I value his skillset and would like to see him return.

Evan Rodrigues

Projected AAV: $1,448,000

Contract term likelihood: With a 43 percent chance of happening, a 2-year contract is the most likely outcome here. I was surprised to see that there is a 35 percent chance of Evan Rodrigues’s next contract being 3 years. I suspect the Penguins will attempt to sign him to a 1-year contract. Rodrigues is 26 years of age and a pending RFA.

The verdict: Rodrigues provides versatility to the Penguins’ bottom-six forward group. When everyone is healthy (and that is rare), he is likely the 13th forward. Rodrigues is an upgrade over Sam Lafferty.

I feel that he is the Nick Bjugstad replacement in terms of being a right-handed shot that can play center in the bottom six. His speed and tenacity are a better fit in the Penguins up-tempo system than Bjugstad’s as well.

Patrick Marleau

Projected AAV: $1,757,000

Contract term likelihood: If Marleau decides to play next season, a 1-year contract is the most likely outcome here. That is about the only foreseeable outcome here. Patrick Marleau is a pending UFA at 40 years old.

The verdict: This will ultimately come down to what Marleau wants to do. I would assume the Penguins have some interest in bringing him back. If this season resumes, I can see him retiring after a postseason run with the Penguins. He could retire either way. In his 8 games with the Penguins, Marleau helped the Penguins generate shot attempts and scoring chances at an above-average clip.

Sam Lafferty

Projected AAV: $1,243,000

Contract term likelihood: A 2-year contract is the most likely outcome here. According to this model, Sam Lafferty has a 22 percent chance of signing a 1-year contract. Lafferty is 25 and a pending RFA.

The verdict: This is too expensive of a salary for my liking. His underlying metrics were bad. Per Natural Stat Trick, Penguins’ goalies stopped 94.6% of the shots they faced with Lafferty on the ice. That is not a sustainable rate. Players like Lafferty are a dime-a-dozen and you do not want to overpay and overcommit to fringe-roster players like this. If the Penguins bring him back, I would assume his salary will be in the 6 figures.

Juuso Riikola

Projected AAV: $1,107,000

Contract term likelihood: There is a 42 percent chance of Juuso Riikola signing a 2-year contract. If I were the Penguins, I would jump all over this. From a puck possession standpoint, Riikola’s numbers have increased substantially across the board. At age 26, Riikola has shown significant improvement in his second NHL season. He is also a pending RFA.

The verdict: Many people have said that the Penguins coaching staff does not trust Riikola. I would have to agree with that sentiment. I wrote back in March, the Penguins need to play him on a regular basis.

Despite playing in just 1 fewer game this season compared to the 2018-19 season, Riikola has played 119 fewer minutes this season. His ice time has dropped off and I do not understand why. Letting Riikola depart would be a mistake. I recall Montreal having previous interest, so he will have options if hits the free-agent market.

Returning: Jared McCann, Conor Sheary, Dominik Simon, Evan Rodrigues

Departing: Justin Schultz, Patrick Marleau, Juuso Riikola, Sam Lafferty

Above is how I envision all of this eventually playing out. The Penguins will likely have to add a defender at some point. The uncertainty of next season’s salary cap will certainly play a role in all of this. The best-case scenario is that the cap stays at the $81.5 million mark.

Perhaps Pierre-Olivier Joseph will be ready to make an impact at the NHL level at some point next season. If I were the GM, I would absolutely bring back Juuso Riikola but I think he will move on this summer. Thanks for reading!