Chicago Blackhawks: Top 6 players they should target in 2020 NHL Draft
The suspension of the NHL season amid the COVID-19 pandemic has shifted hockey fans’ attention towards what is next, which is the 2020 NHL Draft. Let’s take a look at who the Chicago Blackhawks should go after.
The Chicago Blackhawks, entering 2019-20, had some people projecting them as a playoff team, while others had them remain in the basement of the league. Though they haven’t been bad, they’re still not quite a playoff team, heading into the season’s pause with a 32-30-8 record. Because of that record, the Blackhawks are projected to land the ninth overall pick.
The Blackhawks have recently developed a really nice pool of prospects. At the forward positions, they have young NHLers in Kirby Dach, Dominik Kubalik, Alex Nylander, Dylan Strome, and Alex DeBrincat. In their pipeline, they have Michal Teply, Andrei Altybarmakyan, and Philipp Kurashev.
Meanwhile, on defense, they employ Adam Boqvist and Nicolas Beaudin on the NHL, while also having Alec Regula in the pipeline. The Blackhawks have Corey Crawford as their starting goalie, and he’s 35 with a long injury list, with no future starter waiting in the shadows. Unless, of course, Malcolm Subban breaks out if and when he ends up as the starter.
Their current general manager Stan Bowman has been in office since the 2009 NHL Draft. That being said, there is a strong sample size of Blackhawks draftees that I was able to look at. Using every Blackhawks draft pick from 2009, I gathered their heights, weights and nationalities to see if there were any patterns that developed over time, in terms of whether they have preferences in the aforementioned categories.
Since 2009, Bowman has drafted 48 forwards, 33 defensemen, and nine goalies, for a grand total of 90 selections. Let’s start with the forwards.
Forwards
Of the 48 drafted forwards, 17 are American, 13 are Canadian, six are Swedish, four are Finnish, three are Russian, one is Slovakian, one is Danish, one is Czech, one is Swiss, and one is German. Of those forwards, 36 fell between 5’11” and 6’3” and 25 fell between 175 and 200 pounds.
With the above parameters, the top fit for Chicago at forward is Connor Zary. Zary is a Canadian forward who stands at 6’0” and 181 pounds. Zary has been ranked as early as ninth (McKeen’s hockey) and as late as 24th (Elite Prospects), but for the most part, he is considered a top-15 prospect. I have him as my 11th ranked prospect.
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He put up 38 goals and 48 assists for 86 points in 57 games this season with the Kamloops Blazers in the WHL. His well-balanced two-way game is what earns him the most praise, while his skating needs a bit of refinement before he is able to make the jump to the NHL.
The second-best fit for the Blackhawks in the first round is Dawson Mercer. Mercer is another Canadian forward, standing at 6’0” and 179 pounds. He has been ranked as early as 12th by three expert sites (HockeyProspect.com, Future Considerations, and ISS Hockey) and as late as 15th by McKeen’s Hockey. I have him as my 15th ranked prospect.
Mercer recorded 24 goals and 36 assists for 60 points in 42 games this season, split between the Drummondville Voltigeurs and Chicoutimi Sagueneens of the QMJHL. He doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses in his game, as he is a natural goal-scorer who can also be a solid playmaker. Mercer is also responsible in all situations, allowing him to play on both special teams units. He’s also an excellent skater. All that combined, and you have an all-around solid prospect, who has a safe floor and a potentially high ceiling.
Finally, the third-best fit for the Blackhawks is Alexander Holtz. Holtz is a Swedish forward who stands at 6’0” and 183 pounds. Holtz has been ranked as early as fifth by two expert sites (McKeen’s Hockey and Future Considerations) and as late as ninth by two other expert sites (HockeyProspect.com and ISS Hockey). He is my fifth ranked prospect.
Holtz recorded 9 goals and 7 assists for 16 points in 35 games with Djurgardens IF in the SHL. Holtz has been praised for his incredible shooting ability and hockey IQ. He has immense skill-level throughout his game, while also possessing the ability to out-smart opponents and stay one play ahead. One of my favorite draft prospects this year, Holtz may not be available when the Blackhawks are on the clock, but if he is, they should snag him up.
Defensemen
As for defensemen, Bowman has taken 33 of them, as mentioned earlier. Of those 33, 15 are American, seven are Swedish, seven are Canadian, three are Finnish, and one is Czech. Also, 23 of those defensemen were between 5’11” and 6’2”, and 19 weighed between 180 and 200 pounds.
With the above parameters, the top defensive fit for Chicago is Jake Sanderson. It seems as if Sanderson seems to be an excellent fit for most teams, which will make it difficult for the Blackhawks to land him at ninth overall. The left-handed American defenseman stands at 6’1” and 185 pounds. He has been ranked as early as 10th by McKeen’s Hockey, but the demand for defensemen in this draft is higher than the supply, so he could very easily go in the top 10.
The lowest ranking he got by an expert site was 22nd by HockeyProspects.com. I personally have him as my 18th ranked prospect but was very tempted to put him earlier. His best quality is his transitional game, easily, as I believe he is the best transitional defenseman in this draft.
Sanderson’s overall game is decent, but nothing outstanding, and he doesn’t have the high potential that other top defensemen have. He has the makings to be a safe pick, and teams wouldn’t mind being safe in this draft, especially with defensemen.
The second-best fit for the Blackhawks is Justin Barron. Barron is a Canadian-born right-handed defenseman who stands at 6’2” and 187 pounds. He has been ranked as early as 23rd by ISS Hockey and as late as 70th by Elite Prospects. I personally have him ranked 45th in this draft. He most definitely would be a complete reach and an awful pick at 9th overall for the Blackhawks, but he could be a potential second-round selection.
Barron posted 4 goals and 15 assists for 19 points in 34 games this season, with a -19 plus/minus for the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL. He took a massive step back from the season prior (41 points in 68 games), and the reason why I brought up a useless stat like plus/minus is because of the drastic drop he had there too (+42 in 2018-19).
However, he does have top-4 potential in the future, but his step-back is certainly a concern. He is a great skater, playing smart in the offensive zone, as he doesn’t try to get flashy with the puck on his stick.
Defensively, he’s extremely smart, not trying too much to make a play. His safe play is something to look at positively, but his conservative approach does pose the question of how good he can be if he tries to do a little bit more.
The Wild Card
Despite all of the intriguing prospects I mentioned above, there’s one prospect that I believe is the Blackhawks top target – Yaroslav Askarov. The Blackhawks have an ageing goaltender and no true stand-out future options in their pipeline. Not to mention, the success of recent Russian goaltenders in Ilya Samsonov, Alexandar Georgiev, and Igor Shesterkin.
Think of those goalies, and know that Askarov is miles better then they were when they were his age. He’s that good. If the Blackhawks don’t pick him, I will look at this draft as a fail. However, if he is taken ahead of their selection, which is also possible, then I’ll give them a pass.
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Overall, the Blackhawks priority is grabbing a goalie, and there hasn’t been a goalie prospect as good as Askarov in quite a while. If they miss out on him, then someone like Holtz, Zary and Sanderson seem like excellent fits, with Sanderson especially filling a need and being a perfect match for them. If he’s there and Askarov isn’t, they should pull the trigger on Sanderson.