Stanley Cup Playoffs: Previewing the Islanders vs. Panthers series

The New York Islanders and Florida Panthers will face each other in the play-in round.

Two days ago, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman officially announced that the league would forgo the remainder of the regular season, continuing with a 24-team postseason tournament.  One of the play-in series renews a rivalry that was kickstarted back in the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs, as the New York Islanders defeated the Florida Panthers four games to two to advance to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The Islanders won the last two games of that series in 2016, both in dramatic fashion with Game 5 ending in regular overtime and Game 6 finishing in a second overtime period.

Former captain John Tavares scored the two biggest goals of his Islander career, tying the game with less than a minute to go in Game 6, before winning it in the second overtime to take the series.

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Well, a few years later and these two teams meet again. But which team has the advantage heading into this play-in series?

The Islanders this season swept the Panthers in three games, one win coming via a shootout. All three of these games were competitive, with the team from the island outscoring the big cats 8-4.

We saw both of these teams start off strong out of the gate, yet could not keep it going in the latter half of the season.

While the Islanders struggled to score all season long, the Panthers had the opposite issue, struggling to stop the puck from entering their net.

Averaging 3.3 goals per game (5th in NHL), the Panthers have the offensive advantage over an Islander team that averaged just 2.8 goals per game (21st in NHL).

The Islanders, however, allowed the fifth-fewest goals in the league at 190, while the Panthers, given the struggles of netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, allowed the fifth-most at 224.

These numbers come out to 2.69 goals allowed per game for the Islanders and 3.07 goals per game for Florida.

When comparing the team’s starting netminders, the Islanders have the advantage as Semyon Varlamov‘s numbers are just much better. His 2.62 goals-against-average and his .914 save percentage trumps Bobrovsky’s 3.23 goals-against average and his .900 save percentage.

But this was just not a good season for Bobrovsky, as we have seen in the past how crucial he is when it matters the most.

Last season in the playoffs, Bobrovsky helped the eighth seed Columbus Blue Jackets sweep one of the regular season’s all-time best teams, the number one seed Tampa Bay Lighting, before losing in the second round to the Boston Bruins four games to two. Bobrovsky’s play, posting a .925 save percentage, and a 2.41 goals-against-average, was stellar as he hopes to mimic those numbers again this time around.

Varlamov has not played a playoff game since 2014, as we will see how comfortable he truly is when these series officially begins.

It is worth mentioning that Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello broke the news today that the team’s best defenseman, Adam Pelech, will be ready when this series begins, after missing the majority of the regular season with a torn Achilles.

The Panthers registered more shots when compared to the Islanders this season, 2253-2016, registered a higher power-play conversion percentage, 21.3% to 17.3%, as well as recorded fewer penalty minutes per game, 7.25 to the Islanders 8.5.

The Islanders owned a better penalty kill, 80.7% to the Panthers 78.5%, as well as registering 28.2 hits per game (first in NHL), to the Panthers 18.1.

Clearly these teams are polar opposites when discussing their strengths. The question becomes, which strength is stronger in the playoffs?

We always hear as sports fans that defense wins championships. But the biggest defense a team can have is their offense. The great teams dominate their opponent’s zone, and that limits the ability of the opposition to spend any time on attack.

Two advanced statistics, the percentage of total goals in games that are for that team (GF%) and the percentage of goals scored off scoring chances (SCGF%) are true indications of how strong a team really is.

The Panthers sit 17th in the league with a GF% of 50.44 while the Islanders sit 19th, with a 49.87 GF%. What this means is that the Panthers score a higher percentage of the total goals in a game.

Meanwhile, the Islanders sit 13th in the league in SCGF%, at 51.14%, with the Panthers sitting 16th, with a SCGF% of 50.72%. Breaking this down, that means that the Islanders, when given the chance, convert at a higher rate when compared to the Panthers, despite the lower offensive numbers. And in the playoffs, where the offense is hard to come by, having a higher SCGF% is crucial.

This series is ultimately going to come down to which team can adapt the quickest. If the Islanders can add a scoring touch, it seems this team will come out on top. But if the Panthers learn how to play stronger defensively, they will have the advantage.