Jared McCann is pivotal to the Pittsburgh Penguins postseason

The Pittsburgh Penguins secret weapon could be Jared McCann.

The return of Jake Guentzel and the health of Kris Letang are obviously pivotal to the potential success of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the possible upcoming postseason. However, I feel the most important player (outside of the core) for Pittsburgh this summer is Jared McCann.

In all likelihood, he will be the third-line center and skating alongside players that the Penguins will need secondary scoring from.

It has been a story of two seasons for McCann. Through the first two thirds and 44 games of the season, he picked up right where he left off after a strong start to his Penguins’ tenure. He had 14 goals just after the halfway point and appeared destined to score at least 20 goals. McCann ended up tying his career-high in points with 35 and would have surpassed it if it were a normal regular season.

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As the great Mike Lange would say, McCann has not scored since the eighth-grade picnic. McCann’s last goal came on January 14th in a victory over the Minnesota Wild. During his 22 game goalless drought, McCann has produced 7 assists and is a -9. Granted, he was bouncing back and forth from playing the wing and center, but the Penguins need more from him.

Here is a look at the Penguins third-line centers regular and postseasons for two of their three championship teams of this era. All data is during even-strength play and is courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

I did not include the Penguins 2017 championship run because Nick Bonino, Matt Cullen, and Carter Rowney essentially rotated as the third-line center. The Penguins did not really have a firm third-line for that championship run. Bonino and Rowney also both missed some time with injuries.

Jordan Staal

2008-09 Regular Season: 0.99 goals per hour, 2.04 points per hour, 6.44 shots per hour

2008-09 Postseason: 0.49 goals per hour, 1.15 points per hour, 7.53 shots per hour

Nick Bonino

2015-16 Regular Season: 0.48 goals per hour, 2.08 points per hour, 6.48 shots per hour

2015-16 Postseason: 0.72 goals per hour, 2.52 points per hour, 6.12 shots per hour

Jared McCann

2019-20 Regular Season: 0.84 goals per hour, 2.03 points per hour, 9.37 shots per hour

2019-20 Postseason: TBD

When the puck dropped on the playoffs, Staal and Bonino both elevated their games in different ways. As the data indicates, Staal began shooting the puck more. His production dipped, but he was still helping his line control territory. He used his size to his advantage and was a force on the Penguins penalty kill unit. He combined the two to score the shorthanded goal that turned the 2009 Stanley Cup Final in the Penguins favor

Bonino served as the facilitator on the famous HBK line. He found Carl Hagelin and Phil Kessel with passes and allowed them to use their speed to wreak havoc. Bonino shot the puck at about the same rate and simultaneously saw the improvement in terms of quality of teammate boost his tangible offensive production.

McCann will need to elevate his game in some way, shape, or form. While he scored and shot the puck at a greater rate than Staal and Bonino in the regular season, much of that production came in the first half of this season. He also saw time alongside Sidney Crosby. Ideally, you see a player improve as the season goes on. That was not the case here. His performance over the last two months of the season was not good enough.

Now the Penguins projected third line for their upcoming 5 game series does not match the skill level of the HBK line. But the common thread is this: Staal and Bonino both centered an above-average third line, and both scored crucial goals in tightly contested series.

There is a piece of encouraging news regarding a line combination here for McCann. I suspect Conor Sheary and Bryan Rust will be the right-wingers amongst the Penguins top-six forwards. That leaves Patric Hornqvist on the Penguins third line alongside McCann.

This season, this combination has played 251 even-strength minutes together. Here is how the Penguins have faired in those minutes. This data is also courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Shots For: 51.38%
Scoring Chances For: 57.89%
Expected Goals Percentage: 53.71%
Goals For Percentage: 50%

Admittedly, the Penguins are generating shot attempts at a just below average rate when these two are on the ice. I will take that trade-off considering their numbers in the other statistical categories. Pittsburgh’s non-stop injuries have limited Mike Sullivan from pairing these two together for an extended stretch of time.

I do have a concern with this combination. Hornqvist is not known for making controlled offensive zone entries. He has been notorious for dumping the puck into the offensive zone throughout his career.

McCann and Hornqvist have combined for just 9 primary assists (passes or shots off of a rebound that directly leads to a goal) this season. Their primary assist rate stats are nearly identical. Both players are better finishers than playmakers so that will make for an interesting dynamic. Counting on a 40-year-old Patrick Marleau to consistently distribute the puck is a risky proposition.

As Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin approach their mid-thirties, they will obviously need more help. Having a third line that can chip in offensively is crucial to postseason success. At age 24, Jared McCann can help provide that speed, energy, and production. He is also a pending RFA. A strong postseason would help him offset his second-half struggles and likely help from a contractual standpoint.

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If the Penguins plan on winning their sixth Stanley Cup this summer, they need their newly formed third line to find chemistry quickly and do the same. With his skating ability and role as the facilitator on the third line, Jared McCann is the most important player in doing so. Thanks for reading!

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