Is moving the NHL season’s start to January the right decision?

October opening nights for the NHL might be a thing of the past.

October usually means two things – being able to dress up in crazy costumes with the rest of society and the return of the NHL. As baseball winds down and the NFL is getting the ball rolling on its still young season, it’s time for game one of 82 for the league’s 31 teams. At least that’s how it’s always been.

With the sports calendar drastically altered with in-season pauses as leagues begin to return to play that calendar might be changed forever. Since the NHL hasn’t released specific dates, let’s take a quick look at the NBA, since they share a similar regular season to begin with, as well as their return to play structure.

Guesstimating from the NBA model, the Stanley Cup would be awarded for the 2019-20 season would be in early October. That’s not unexpected. Neither is the league’s presumption late start for next season perhaps going as far back as January 2021.

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What is surprising is that this move may be permanent. NHL owners are considering a permanent move to a January to August season, with increased attendance and television ratings during those months being the justification for doing so.

As the season goes on, the NHL does see more tickets sold and more people watching games so that point is hard to dispute. What exactly causes this increased viewer demand though? Would a permanent move to this schedule result in the higher fan demand that the owners want? Well, probably not.

It’s hard to track NHL attendance throughout the season by month. Media outlets that track fan attendance, such as ESPN, do so by season.

As the season goes on, that number reflects the season as a whole. Even if most hockey fans see more seats filled and more tickets sold as the season progress it’s hard to put an exact number to prove it.

Do you know what happens as the season progresses? The Stanley Cup contenders start being separated from the pretenders. The playoff push starts to build. Those are the things that bring fans to the arena and keep them tuning in. Opening night games are almost always sell-outs, but as the season progressed excitement either builds or decreases. It’s not the date on the calendar that helps sell tickets, instead, it’s how the team is doing throughout the season.

A perfect case study was done about by New Jersey Devils in 2018. That season was a surprising success, with New Jersey reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2012, and attendance increased. Their article also takes a look at another factor that affects attendance and viewership: other sports, particularly the NFL.

If the NHL moves its’s schedule it would almost entirely avoid the NFL regular season. Fewer options for sports means more viewers might tune into NHL hockey, but will those number remain constant or fluctuate throughout the season?

Look at baseball for another example. Opening day for Major League Baseball is a huge event, basically a holiday, with sell-out crowds. After that every game for the next month or two looks to have a fraction of the crowd. Granted baseball also has to deal with weather issues, so the move towards warmer summer months helps them and is largely a nonexistent problem for the NHL.

Even if the NHL moves to avoid the NFL, the move would put them right up against MLB. Now with speculation that the NBA might join in changing their schedule the sports schedule might be crowded once again. Baseball might be a bigger problem to worry about than football surprisingly.

The NFL still overwhelmingly relies on a Sunday schedule, giving hockey and basketball almost free reign over the other six days of the week. Yes, Thursday night and Monday night football exist but on a much smaller scale. Major League Baseball has multiple games every day of the week. The NHL would be fighting for market share constantly instead of once every seven days or so.

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It remains to be seen if a different time table is better for the sport itself. While it would be an odd adjustment at first, it could work out. Hopefully, the NHL would do it for the right reasons, and the reasons everyone thinks they’re doing to do it for aren’t the right ones.