New York Rangers: Making the Hart Trophy case for Artemi Panarin

The Hart Trophy should go to New York Rangers forward Artemi Panarin.

This season’s Hart Trophy race is one of the most stacked in years. Leon Draisaitl led the league in points and carried the Edmonton Oilers while Connor McDavid was out. Connor Hellebuyck dragged the Winnipeg Jets into the postseason. David Pastrnak nearly dethroned Alex Ovechkin from the goal-scoring throne. Nathan MacKinnon helped the Colorado Avalanche overcome numerous injuries. But the favorite should be Artemi Panarin of the New York Rangers.

Before I make the case for him, I want to make something clear. Draisaitl, MacKinnon, and Hellebuyck are each extremely deserving candidates. In just about any other season, they’d probably win the Hart Trophy. But Panarin has been at another level this season. He’s probably the biggest reason the Rangers are in the postseason and he’s been arguably the most impressive player in the NHL this season.

Let’s compare Panarin’s case to the case of each of his primary competitors.

Draisaitl

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Draisaitl’s case is largely built around his production. Points and scoring are important in hockey because the team who outscores their opponent wins 100% of the time. Draisaitl led the NHL with 110 points. He had 13 more points than teammate Connor McDavid in second place and 15 more than Panarin and Pastrnak, who tied for third place.

However, Draisaitl’s point totals were a bit inflated thanks to the Oilers’ top-ranked power play. His 44 points there led the NHL. By comparison, Panarin had 24 power play points. Panarin actually finished the season with more even-strength points (71) than Draisaitl (66) and more 5v5 points as well (59 to 56).

I don’t like raw stats as much as I like rate stats, especially when you’re comparing two players in very similar roles. So here’s how Panarin and Draisaitl compared at 5v5, which is the most important part of the game since most of each game is played at 5v5.

5v5 points per hour

Panarin: 3.28
Draisaitl: 2.89

5v5 goals per hour

Panarin: 1.17
Draisaitl: 1.13

5v5 assists per hour

Panarin: 2.11
Draisaitl: 1.75

So while there’s a 15 point discrepancy between Draisaitl and Panarin, it’s not nearly as big as it appears.

Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy case gets a lot weaker when you look at his possession stats. Possession stats aren’t everything, but they’re an important part of the story that can’t be ignored. Draisaitl’s relative possession stats are in the green, but that’s largely due to his offense. His defense, though, has been admittedly weak.

On the other hand, Panarin’s possession stats are simply outstanding. The Rangers are an entirely different team when he’s on the ice. With Panarin on the ice, the Rangers have a 5v5 Goals For% of 66.37%. For those of you like me who stink at math, this means just under two out of every three 5v5 goals scored when Panarin is on the ice is by the Rangers.

Without him on the ice, that number falls to 41.67%. If the Rangers without Panarin were an NHL team, they’d have the second-lowest 5v5 Goals For% in the NHL.

Draisaitl had an incredible season, but points aren’t everything. Panarin has, in my opinion, been more valuable to the Rangers than he has been to the Oilers. And before Oilers fans yell at me because the Rangers aren’t in the playoffs, let me remind you all that the Oilers aren’t in the playoffs yet either.

Pastrnak

Like Draisaitl, Pastrnak’s Hart Trophy case largely revolves around his production. I must tip my hat to Pastrnak because he almost did the impossible by dethroning Ovechkin as the league’s sole goal-scoring king (they tied). Panarin and Pastrnak both finished the season with 95 points, though it’s worth pointing out the former played in one fewer game.

By traditional standards, Pastrnak’s a pretty strong Hart Trophy candidate. Historically, voters gravitate towards players with his profile. He’s arguably the best player on the league’s best regular-season team.

However, it’s unclear if he truly is his team’s best player. You could make a very strong case that his teammate Brad Marchand is better. Evolving Hockey‘s Wins Above Replacement model has Marchand worth 3.7 WAR while Pastrnak’s worth 3.2. By comparison, Panarin is worth 4.4 WAR and Draisaitl is worth 2.7 WAR (though this seems low to me). Panarin also holds the advantage in 5v5 points and assists per hour, as well as possession stats.

MacKinnon

MacKinnon is probably Panarin’s toughest competition. He checks off every box you want to see in a Hart Trophy candidate and he matches up well against Panarin. They’re extremely similar as far as production and it’s worth pointing out MacKinnon stepped up huge when linemates Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen were out due to injuries.

Much like Panarin, MacKinnon has been responsible for a lot of Colorado’s offense. He had 93 points this season. By comparison, Andre Burakovsky, who had the second-most points of any Avalanche forward, had 45 points.

To give you an idea of just how bad the Avalanche’s injuries were, they played 70 games this season. Only 11 players played in more than 60 games and only two (Samuel Girard and Matt Nieto) played in all 70. MacKinnon, according to Evolving Hockey, was worth 3.5 WAR this season. His possession stats are quite solid, but they don’t quite add up to Panarin’s.

Finally, the Avalanche are probably going to have the Calder Trophy winner (Cale Makar) and perhaps the Jack Adams Trophy winner (Jared Bednar). At the very least, I’d be utterly shocked if both aren’t finalists. MacKinnon has been outstanding this season, but Panarin has done more with less.

Hellebuyck

Here comes the tricky part. How do you compare a goalie to a skater? That’s like trying to compare an apple to a banana. Sure, they’re both fruits, but they don’t share too much else in common. What makes a good apple doesn’t necessarily make a good banana, and vice versa.

That said, if we’re strictly looking for the player who is most valuable to his team, you’ve got to seriously consider Hellebuyck for the Hart Trophy. Among goalies who played in at least 40 games, he has the second-best save percentage (.922%), trailing only Tuukka Rask of the Boston Bruins (.929%).

However, raw save percentage doesn’t tell the whole story. No two shots against are the same. A shot from the slot has a much higher chance of going in than a shot from the blue line. Certain teams are good defensively and other teams aren’t. Hellbuyck’s Jets are one of the latter.

The Jets were awful defensively in front of him, and that’s putting it very politely. Among goalies who played at least 2,000 minutes during all situations, Hellebuyck had the fourth-highest expected goals against.

Now, expected goals are still a bit of a work in progress, so I don’t blame you if you’re skeptical. How about this? Hellebuyck faced the fourth-most high danger shots against per hour and the fifth-most shots on goal per hour. Not to mention he also tied for the league lead in games played (58).

Goalies are the most valuable position in hockey because they’re the only players who can erase their teammates’ mistakes. I don’t care how good Panarin or Draisaitl are. If their teammates is out of position, they can’t magically make up for it. A goalie can.

I’ll be honest – I don’t know how to begin to compare Panarin and Hellebuyck. But I know one thing for sure. You’re nuts if you think Hellebuyck isn’t a serious Hart Trophy contender. The Jets wouldn’t be anywhere close to the playoffs without him.

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As I said at the start of the article, this year’s Hart Trophy class is impressive. You could make a very strong case for any number of players. I didn’t even mention Elias Pettersson, who quietly had an outstanding season. But from someone who has no rooting interest in the Hart Trophy race, Panarin’s case is the strongest.

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