Penguins: John Marino is getting overlooked for the Calder Trophy

Penguins defenseman John Marino should be getting more consideration for the Calder Trophy.

With all of the hype surrounding former Carolina Hurricanes prospect and Harvard offensive defenseman Adam Fox last summer, the performance of his former college teammate Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman John Marino likely got overlooked and lost in the shuffle.

Penguins pro and special assignment scout Kevin Stevens did not get lost in that shuffle. Stevens recommended the Pens go out and acquire Marino. On July 26, 2019, Pittsburgh sent a 2021 conditional sixth-round pick to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for Marino. If Marino’s rookie season is any indication, the Penguins robbed the Oilers (again) and have received tremendous value from Marino.

After seeing some social media discussion about the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year), I feel that Marino is once again being overlooked. He was the Penguins’ best defensive defenseman this past season and appears to be a star in the making.

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Anybody who watched the large majority of the Penguins games this past season knows how impressive Marino was. His emergence and reliability on the backend ultimately made defense prospect Calen Addison expandable and allowed Pittsburgh to acquire Jason Zucker from Minnesota.

In terms of the Calder votes, Marino should undoubtedly be in the conversation. With all due respect to forwards Victor Olofsson and Dominik Kubalik, this year’s Calder is a four-horse race in my opinion. Today I am going to compare how Marino stacks up from a statistical standpoint against fellow rookie blueliners Cale Makar, Adam Fox, and Quinn Hughes.

The goals above replacement (GAR) stat estimates the total amount of goals a player added to his team relative to a replacement-level player. The stat tries to do so by taking everything a player does into account.

Using Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement tool, Marino ranked 2nd on the Penguins in GAR with 15.3 Bryan Rust was the only Pittsburgh skater with a higher total (15.9). If he would not have undergone surgery for a facial fracture, Marino would have likely surpassed Rust.

Here is where the four best rookie defenders from this past season ranked in terms of GAR amongst all NHL defenders.

• Makar: 15.9 (8th)
• Marino: 15.3 (9th)
• Fox: 14.9 (10th)
• Hughes: 11.1 (20th)

Next, we are going to take a look at where these four faired in terms of wins above replacement. WAR is simply defined as a one-number estimate of the value (in terms of team wins) that an individual player provided over a replacement-level player. This data is also courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Amongst all NHL defenders, here is where they ranked.

• Makar: 2.8 (8th)
• Marino: 2.7 (9th)
• Fox: 2.7 (9th)
• Hughes: 2.0 (20th)

All four of these rookies finished with a higher WAR total this past season than analytics darlings Jared Spurgeon and Dougie Hamilton. Norris Trophy candidates Victor Hedman and Roman Josi finished just ahead of this quadrant of rookies. That’s pretty impressive for four first-year players. They all performed at a top-pairing level in their first full seasons.

While Marino was not as productive or flashy from an offensive standpoint as his running mates, I would reckon he was the best of these four from a defensive standpoint. The key here was Marino’s ability to limit and suppress shots and scoring chances from opponents. Oftentimes, his gap control really limited the time and space of opposing forwards.

The data here shows what these opposing teams generated offensively for every 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play that these defenders were on the ice. As usual, it is courtesy of Natural Stat Trick. 

Makar

• Opponent shots for per hour: 30.29
• Opponent scoring chances for per hour: 24.3
• Opponent goals for per hour:  2.34

Marino

• Opponent shots for per hour: 27.31
• Opponent scoring chances for per hour: 22.99
• Opponent goals for per hour: 2.20

Fox

• Opponent shots for per hour: 28.83
• Opponent scoring chances for per hour: 24.79
• Opponent goals for per hour: 2.26

Hughes

• Opponent shots for per hour: 30.14
• Opponent scoring chances for per hour: 28.18
• Opponent goals for per hour: 2.36

As you can see, opposing teams generated more shots, scoring chances, and goals when Makar, Fox, and Hughes were out on the ice than they did against Marino. When you account for the 213 minutes that Marino spent alongside possession anchor Jack Johnson this past season, that makes this even more impressive.

If I had a vote on the Calder Trophy, I would vote for Rangers defender Adam Fox. His defensive rate stats nearly match that of Marino’s and he was more productive offensively. New York was one of the worst teams in hockey in terms of controlling territory, but when Fox was on the ice they were well above-average.

On a high profile team with an elite core, perhaps Marino is getting overlooked by members of the PHWA. I feel that Marino should be getting much more attention for his stellar rookie season. While Makar and Hughes are the higher profile players and the likely favorites for this award, Fox and Marino would be first and second on my ballot.

Makar, Marino, Fox, and Hughes is the best corps of rookie blueliners we have seen in quite some time. You can not really go wrong in voting for any of them for this award. Colorado, Pittsburgh, New York, and Vancouver are all very fortunate to have them on their blueline for the long haul. Thanks for reading!