Pittsburgh Penguins: Which center would maximize Jake Guentzel’s production?

Which line should Jake Guentzel be on when he returns for the Pittsburgh Penguins?

One of the most interesting questions regarding the Pittsburgh Penguins this postseason is how they are going to utilize Jake Guentzel and Jason Zucker in their top-six forward group. Are they going to go with what they have a larger sample size on (Sidney Crosby and Guentzel) or the combination that controlled possession at a better rate this season (Evgeni Malkin and Guentzel)? Early indications are that it will be the former.

I am a firm believer that the increased production from Malkin was largely due to the quality of teammate boost Malkin received when Crosby got injured. He began consistently sharing the ice during even-strength play with the Penguins’ best winger in Guentzel and best defenseman in Kris Letang.

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As Crosby centers the “first” line, he tends to see more ice with Letang than Malkin does. Head coach Mike Sullivan and his staff should spread the wealth a bit whenever play resumes, whether that be in the postseason or in 2021.

Here’s how the Penguins faired when Malkin and Guentzel were on the ice during 284 minutes of 5 on 5 play in 2019-20.  All data in this article is courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

• Shot Attempts For: 58.27%
• Shots For: 61.56%
• Scoring Chances For: 61.01%
• Expected Goals For: 63.73%
• Goals For: 66.67%

While skating alongside Malkin during 5 on 5 play, Guentzel took 9.05 shots per hour, scored 1.26 goals per hour, and tallied 4.21 points per hour.

Clearly, Guentzel and Malkin alone are not the sole reasons for these excellent on-ice results. Having Letang on the backend to start breakouts, exit the defensive zone, and help drive possession was crucial to this success. Bryan Rust also had a breakout season and served as the right-winger alongside these two. This trio was one of the best lines in the league. I do not want to break them up.

And here is how the Penguins controlled territory when Crosby and Guentzel were on the ice during 252 minutes of 5 on 5 play.

• Shot Attempts For: 56.26%
• Shots For: 56.85%
• Scoring Chances For: 54.58%
• Expected Goals For: 55.34%
• Goals For: 52%

While skating alongside Crosby during 5 on 5 play, Guentzel took 8.09 shots per hour, scored 0.48 goals per hour, and tallied 2.85 points per hour.

From both a team and individual production standpoint, there is a significant dropoff here compared to how Malkin and Guentzel performed together. Now, context is very important here. Crosby was dealing with a sports hernia for the first month of the season. He was not fully healthy.

With the exception of goals for percentage, Crosby and Guentzel were also at 55 or 56 percent in these same metrics when on the ice together during the 2018-19 season as well. While those numbers are well above average, I’m not convinced that Crosby and Guentzel is the Penguins best option right out of the gates.

Therefore, I would start the play-in series with Jason Zucker alongside Crosby on the Penguins first line. Here is how this duo performed from a territorial standpoint in 189 minutes of 5 on 5 play together.

• Shot Attempts For Percentage: 52.49%
• Shots For Percentage: 54.63%
• Scoring Chances For: 48.21%
• Expected Goals For Percentage: 48.97%
• Goals For Percentage: 52.94%

In terms of scoring chances and expected goals, the Penguins were below average when Crosby and Zucker were together. There are valid reasons for that. For the large portion of their time spent together, Jack Johnson was consistently sharing the ice with the Crosby unit.

As we know, Johnson actively makes his teammates worse. Brian Dumoulin and John Marino were also out of the lineup for extended periods of time. With the exception of Letang and Pettersson, the Penguins blueline struggled to transition the puck effectively up to their forwards.

Fittingly enough, back on Valentine’s Day, the speed of Crosby and Zucker gave the Canadiens fits. While they did not convert on this play, they played give and go with the puck, generated a high-danger scoring chance, and drew a penalty while in the process.

On this play, Dominik Simon (who is now sidelined due to shoulder surgery) did a nice job of creating time and space that allowed Crosby to navigate through the neutral zone. Zucker simultaneously kept his feet moving, opened up, and kept his stick on the ice. This allowed him to one-time Crosby’s pass past Carey Price.

Just a few minutes later, Zucker struck again. He did a nice job of navigating around some traffic and dishing Crosby the puck on a controlled zone entry. Once Zucker started breaking for the net, the Montreal defender tried tying him up. Zucker battled through it, won the position battle, and deflected the feed from Marcus Pettersson past Price.

Due to the chemistry of Guentzel, Malkin, and Rust, their ability to dominate opponents, and control territory,  I would put Guentzel on Malkin’s left-wing. They were one of the best lines in hockey this season. Last spring and summer, we had to listen to the (largely false) narrative that Malkin had a bad season. Keeping these three together is the best way to prevent that same narrative from arising.

The bottom line is this: Pittsburgh needs to spread the wealth. Crosby gets to share the ice during even strength with Guentzel and Letang more frequently than Malkin does. As a team, the Penguins faired better when Guentzel was with Malkin than opposed to Crosby this past season.

Stylistically, Crosby and Zucker fit together. They have had success against Montreal. If Crosby and Zucker are playing together with a healthy Penguins blueline, I expect them to control territory at a higher rate and generate more offense. I expect Conor Sheary to be Crosby’s right-wing regardless of who is on the other side.

Because of injuries and the timing of the Zucker acquisition, these are all small sample sizes. When Crosby and Malkin are both firing on all cylinders, the Penguins become a matchup nightmare. In order to do that, I feel that these are the best center/left-wing combinations to start things off.

Ultimately, I suspect Mike Sullivan will reunite Crosby and Guentzel. We shall see how long that lasts. This is a great “problem” to have. Thanks for reading!