How would the new CBA affect the Pittsburgh Penguins?
The NHL and NHLPA appear to be making significant progress on a new collective bargaining agreement. Bob McKenzie of TSN tweeted that it is possible that a tentative deal is agreed upon as early as today, Thursday July 2. This would have quite an impact on the Pittsburgh Penguins.
While none of this is official until the pen is put to paper, here are some important details of the new rumored CBA.
Elliotte Friedman laid out the NHL’s salary cap projection for the next three seasons.
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Regardless of if these are the exact final numbers, it does not appear that the salary cap will increase much (if at all) over the next 3 years. With the Penguins being a team that spends to the salary cap each season, that is going to impact them. It will play into their decision making, force their hand on some current players, and perhaps how they operate.
In the eventual & upcoming offseason, Jared McCann will be due a raise. In all likelihood, only one of Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry will be getting a raise from the Penguins following the conclusion of the 2019-20 season. At the very latest, rookie defenseman John Marino will also be due a raise in the summer of 2021.
Looking ahead regarding members of the current roster, I anticipate Nick Bjugstad being traded this off-season. He is scheduled to make $5 million in salary and count $4.1 million against the cap.
Since February of 2019, he has produced 10 goals and 16 points in 45 games with the Penguins. As we know, he is injury prone. I doubt the Penguins want to keep that kind of commitment to a player who struggles to stay healthy. Minnesota and Montreal could be possible destinations.
Signing Jack Johnson to his current contract was asinine from the get-go. The best news about the salary cap is that it will force the Penguins’ hand. In all likelihood, Johnson and his $3.25 million cap hit will either be traded or bought out either this off-season or the next one. When that happens, the Penguins will immediately become a better hockey team.
At some point, the Penguins are going to face a difficult decision with Patric Hornqvist. At 33 years old, he is the oldest member of this roster. He is their fifth-highest paid forward with a $5.3 million dollar cap hit. He is signed through 2022-23.
Hornqvist’s style of play is both a blessing and a curse. He gets under the skin of opponents and causes chaos at the net front. As you will see below, the eye test matches the result of this tweet. Hornqvist is not known for making controlled offensive zone-entries. He is heavily reliant upon his teammates getting him the puck in the offensive zone.
Here are the players who play as the team's trigger man. The team's build-up, transition and passing usually is focused and getting these players the final puck so they can turn the play into a high danger scoring chance pic.twitter.com/PPVbAbNtJu
— Bryce Chevallier (@FauxCentre) July 1, 2020
He has also missed 30 games over the last 2 seasons and sustained numerous concussions. Sooner or later, his style of play will begin to take its toll. I suspect he will either be exposed to Seattle in the expansion draft or traded next summer.
Looking ahead, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, and Kris Letang will need contract extensions prior to the 2022-23 season if they are to remain in Pittsburgh. At the very least, Rust appears to be trending in the direction of getting a raise from his current salary of $3.5 million dollars. The salary cap will likely only be at $82.5 million. It is going to be difficult for the Penguins to re-sign Rust if he maintains his level of production from this past season.
It will be of increased importance that the Penguins prospects can make a positive impact while on their entry-level contracts in the next 2 to 3 years. Sam Poulin, Nathan Legare, Drew O’Connor, and Pierre-Olivier Joseph will likely be taking roster spots from current members of this team within that same time span.
It may end up being sooner. We saw the competitive advantage that Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust, and Matt Murray helped provide on entry-level contracts back in 2016 and 2017.
The lack of growth with the cap may lead to Pittsburgh’s front office becoming even more aggressive in their pursuit of college free agents. College free agents seem to have a quicker path to the NHL than CHL prospects do. Doing this would allow Jim Rutherford to continue to trade draft picks away in an attempt to win a fourth championship during the Crosby/Malkin window.
As of yesterday, things were trending in the direction of NHL players participating in the 2022 and 2026 Winter Olympics.
https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1278308950522376197
That is tremendous news. Showcasing the game of hockey and the best players in the world on a global level should be a no-brainer decision. Hopefully, the behind-the-scenes decisions get sorted out and agreed upon.
If this happens, Sidney Crosby would get an opportunity to win a third Olympic gold medal. Provided all three being healthy, Crosby, Connor McDavid, and Nathan MacKinnon all being on Team Canada would be must-watch hockey. I suspect Kris Letang would at least be in the discussion for cracking the roster.
It would also give Evgeni Malkin the chance at winning his first Olympic gold medal. After losing to Finland in the 2014 Sochi winter games, Malkin told Yahoo! Sports “There has not been a day when thoughts about the Olympics didn’t enter my head.”
Jake Guentzel would likely make the USA roster. Mike Sullivan should be a leading candidate to coach this team. Considering both of their postseason success here in Pittsburgh, it’d be fun to see them compete for a Gold Medal on the national stage. Hopefully, all goes according to plan. Thanks for reading!