Minnesota Wild: Revisiting the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise contracts

July 4, 2012 was a huge day for the Minnesota Wild, as they signed both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter.

The Fourth of July is a huge day for all Americans. But it means something extra for Minnesota Wild fans because back in 2012, the Wild signed both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching $98 million deals over 13 years. They were twin deals in every sense of the word. Their term, AAV, and even their signing bonuses are precisely alike.

Eight years later, their contracts still have five years left. Suter and Parise are both on the wrong end of 30 years old, as Suter just turned 35 and Parise will be 36 in late July. The Wild committed $196 million combined to these two stars in 2012. Have they been worth it?

Some Context

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First, let’s take a look at why the Wild spent almost $200 million on Suter and Parise. Let’s rewind the clocks back to the 2012 offseason. Majority owner Craig Leipold was in his fourth year of owning the Wild. Since buying them, he had yet to see his team make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

It’s not that the Wild were awful, not by any stretch. They were something you could argue is even worse than being a cellar-dwelling team – they were mediocre. In 2008-09, they were two points short of the Anaheim Ducks for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The following season, they were 11 points shy of the Colorado Avalanche. They were 12 points shy of the LA Kings in 2010-11 and 14 points shy of them in 2011-12.

Leipold had enough of the Wild not being good enough. He’s also been a bit too hands-on as an owner, so it’s not surprising that he wanted to sign Suter and Parise, the two hottest free agents on the market in 2012. Leipold signed them despite knowing there was going to be a lockout.

Simply put, the Wild signed Suter and Parise to carry them to the next level. They were tired of not being good enough. With Suter and Parise leading the way, the Wild figured that would change.

It has not changed. So, have they been worth their deals? Let’s take a look.

Ryan Suter

I’m doing Ryan Suter first because the answer is much easier with him. Using Evolving Hockey’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) model, Suter has been the seventh-most valuable defenseman since the start of the 2012-13 season. The Wild were looking for a franchise defenseman and Suter has proven to be a very effective one, even as he’s aged.

If you don’t like WAR (I don’t blame you if you don’t), how about Point Shares, via Hockey Reference? By that method, Suter has been the ninth-most valuable defenseman since the start of the 2012-13 season.

Suter’s calling card has been his durability and toughness. No NHL defenseman has played more regular season minutes than him (16,487) since the start of the 2012-13 season. He missed a whopping four games since joining the Wild, and those four games were due to what could have been a career-ending injury.

Did the Wild probably overpay for Suter? Absolutely. No question. 13 years was asinine at the time and it looks even sillier in hindsight. But if you’re going to overpay someone, you better make sure they’re actually worth overpaying. Suter was worth overpaying. The last five years of his deal could be brutal, though.

Zach Parise

Zach Parise requires a much more complicated answer. He hasn’t had the blessings of the hockey gods like Suter has. Parise has suffered numerous injuries since signing with the Wild. In each of his full seasons (not including the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season), he has played fewer than 70 games (four times) more times than he has played at least 70 games (three times). However, it’s worth pointing out he would have gotten to 70 games this season if it wasn’t for the stoppage.

That said, when Parise has been healthy, he’s been about as good as advertised. He was brought in to score goals and you can’t deny he’s done what he was paid to do. Since the start of the 2012-13 season, among forwards with at least 500 games played, he ranks 13th in goals per game. Parise’s ahead of several stars, including Taylor Hall, Jonathan Toews, Phil Kessel, and teammate Eric Staal.

But what about the postseason? Well, Parise has fulfilled his end of the bargain. Since joining the Wild, he has 14 goals and 31 points in 36 Stanley Cup Playoff games. Parise’s been a huge leader on the team when healthy.

That’s the thing, though. Parise hasn’t been healthy. As unfair as it might seem, this is something we have to consider deeply. Because, as they say, the best ability an athlete can have is durability.

Also, Parise hasn’t had as much value to the Wild as Suter has. According to Evolving Hockey‘s WAR model, he ranks 45th in value among forwards since the start of the 2012-13 season (minimum 8,000 minutes). Even if you want to be fair to Parise and use rate stats, his WAR/60 ranks 47th among the 69 qualified forwards.

Father Time has been very cruel to Parise. He came to the Wild as an explosive scorer. Now Parise’s scoring is about the only thing keeping him above water. If that goes, both the Wild and Parise could be in deep trouble. But as long as he keeps producing, he won’t be a liability.

Verdict

Suter and Parise haven’t been able to take the Wild to the next level. Heck, they haven’t even been able to take them to a Western Conference Final. But that’s more the fault of the team around them than Suter and Parise.

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From the moment Suter and Parise signed their deals, everyone knew the deals would be judged by the first seven or eight years. The rest of it would be gravy. To win in the NHL, you need stars. The Wild got that part right by adding Suter and Parise. However, you also need the right complementary pieces. The Wild definitely didn’t get that part right.

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