Stanley Cup Playoffs: Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs series preview

Matchups

How do these two teams matchup?

Head To Head

The Maple Leafs won the season series by picking up three out of four points while the Blue Jackets picked up two.

Advantage: Toronto

Forwards

Toronto’s greatest strength lies in their forwards. Few teams can match their pure skill. Auston Matthews was a goal away from sharing the Rocket Richard Trophy with Alex Ovechkin and David Pastrnak. For the first time in his career, he had a fully healthy season and he proved he’s a strong challenger for Ovechkin’s goal-scoring throne.

John Tavares was injured for a good portion of the season, but still put up very good numbers. The break was probably a good thing for him, as it let him rest his hand injury from earlier this season. Mitch Marner answered his critics with another strong season and William Nylander silenced his with his best season yet. Zach Hyman emerged as a legitimate top-six forward.

Even their bottom six forward group is surprisingly strong. Kasperi Kapanen and Alexander Kerfoot both had over 35 points. Ilya Mikheyev could play a larger role, which is what he was doing before an injury cut his season short. Pierre Engvall surprised a lot of people. Jason Spezza changed his game and showed everyone, including himself, that he’s still an NHL-caliber player.

The Blue Jackets offense, as expected, took a huge hit due to losing Panarin. Pierre-Luc Dubois proved he’s a first-line caliber center even without Panarin. Free agent signee Gustav Nyquist had one of his patented quietly good seasons with 41 points. The only thing that stopped Oliver Bjorkstrand from having a breakout season was an injury. He had 36 points in 49 games.

Nick Foligno and Cam Atkinson has less than stellar seasons, but both are talented enough to make a difference in August. If Josh Anderson is healthy, he could be an x-factor.

Advantage: Toronto

Defense

The Leafs have a bit of a bad reputation defensively. Part of that is earned, but it’s worth noting they were noticeably better under Keefe. From Nov. 20 to the hiatus in mid-March, Toronto was 17th in goals against per game. That’s not great, but it’s just barely good enough to contend if their offense does its part.

Tyson Barrie had a rough season, but he put up better numbers under Keefe. The same could be said for virtually everyone on the Leafs. Morgan Rielly had a very rough season, but he’s finally healthy. Jake Muzzin had a strong season and emerged as their best defenseman. Justin Holl’s a feel-good story, as he has finally found his home in the NHL as a top-four defenseman.

Travis Dermott didn’t make the leap the Maple Leafs were hoping he would make due to injuries. Rasmus Sandin was surprisingly effective and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be in the lineup over Cody Ceci at this point.

Columbus’s defense is what carried them this season. Even in an off-year, Seth Jones was pretty good. He was battling injuries, so the break was likely a good thing for him. Zach Werenski put up impressive numbers as well. David Savard, Vladislav Gavrikov, and Ryan Murray shored out their blueline.

The Blue Jackets allowed the third-fewest expected goals against per hour at 5v5. They made things relatively easy for their young goalies, which is a huge reason why they were able to have success.

Advantage: Columbus

Goaltending

Speaking of which, the Blue Jackets had a huge question mark in goal going into this season. Two of them, actually. Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo had combined for 90 career NHL games heading into the season, and all of them were from the latter. Korpisalo got a lot of work early, though Merzlikins was getting roughly 50% of the starts before an injury to Korpisalo forced him into a starting role. Between them and Matiss Kivlenieks, they combined for a .915% save percentage.

Frederik Andersen wasn’t his usual self this season. His .909% save percentage was the lowest of his career. A break probably did him some good. Unlike in previous seasons, the Leafs have a strong backup plan in Jack Campbell. It’ll be interesting to see how short of a leash Andersen gets in the postseason.

Advantage: Columbus

Coaching

This is as good as it gets. It’s old school versus new school as John Tortorella will be coaching against Sheldon Keefe. Torts was rightfully a Jack Adams Trophy finalist. However, I really like the job Keefe did this season as well. He didn’t force his players to be what they weren’t. The best coaches adapt to their players, and that’s precisely what Keefe did.

Advantage: Columbus

Burning Questions And Prediction

Which burning questions will determine the series?

Is Freddie Ready?

Frederik Andersen has been a darn good goalie for the Leafs. However, he hasn’t been terrific in the postseason. Andersen’s poor campaign has a lot of people concerned about him. He’ll need to do a good job this series for the Leafs to win. While Toronto does have Jack Campbell to back him up, ultimately, Freddie’s the guy who can lead them to the Stanley Cup.

Which Strength Wins?

This series will boil down to Toronto’s offense versus Columbus’s defense (and vice-versa). The Leafs love to score goals while the Blue Jackets love to prevent them. Something’s got to give. And whichever side gives is probably going to the side that loses.

Prediction

Honestly, this is probably the toughest play-in round series to predict. I could see it going either way. My head is telling me Columbus and my heart is telling me Toronto. I’m going with my head on this one.

Prediction: Blue Jackets in five.