Stanley Cup Playoffs: Nashville Predators versus Arizona Coyotes preview

Matchups

Forwards

The Coyotes finished 21st in the league in scoring, so it’s no surprise their forward core is relatively weak compared to other playoff teams. They had nine forwards score at least 10 goals, but only five scored at least 15 and only one (Connor Garland) scored 20.

Nick Schmaltz led the team in points with 45 and was one of their main driver of offense. Christian Dvorak was their second-best play driver as far as 5v5 offense and also finished the season with 38 points in 70 games. Taylor Hall was their primary play driver there.

Clayton Keller’s 44 points finished second on the team, though his play driving remains mediocre at best. Garland drove play and also showed a penchant for scoring goals in his first full NHL season. Kessel has a lot of talent, but his defensive play has been declining big time.

Derek Stepan remains strong defensively, but his offense has taken a turn for the worse, as he posted just 28 points this season in 70 games and he wasn’t a good play driver either. Christian Fischer and Dvorak are both solid defensively. Lawson Crouse had his best season as a pro with 25 points in 66 games, but his play driving on both ends was subpar.

On the other side of the ice, the Predators were led by Filip Forsberg and Matt Duchene. The former didn’t drive play as strongly as he usually does, though that was likely due to injuries. Duchene was brought in to drive play and score, and he did the first quite well while finishing the season with 42 points.

Craig Smith is a strong play driver, but unfortunately, he’s not a good shooter. He’s a mighty fine complementary player, though. Ryan Johansen has fallen quite far over the past few years. He’s no longer making a huge impact on either side of the ice. Nick Bonino’s a surprisingly effective play driver and he put up 35 points in 67 games. Kyle Turris got better once Hynes became the coach. Viktor Arvidsson had a significant down year. Rocco Grimaldi was a bit of an unsung hero for them.

Advantage: Predators

Defense

First, I think it’s important that we separate goaltending from defense. Those are two entirely different things. Now, with that said, the Predators were a much stronger team defensively than their goals allowed (17th in the league) suggested.

The Preds had the 13th-lowest 5v5 expected goals against per hour rate in the league. Defense is their bread and butter and this year was no different. Upfront, they’re led by Norris Trophy finalist Roman Josi. If you think the award should be given to the best overall defenseman, it’s hard to argue he wasn’t better than John Carlson and Victor Hedman. Ryan Ellis is also extremely good.

Mattias Ekholm had a down year by his standards, but that was likely due to going from playing primarily with P.K. Subban to playing primarily with Dante Fabbro. Speaking of Fabbro, he didn’t drive offense as much as the Predators were hoping.

Dan Hamhuis is still a decent defensive defenseman, but he’s becoming a liability on offense. Neither Yannick Weber nor Jarred Tinordi are much to write home about.

The Coyotes allowed the 11th most 5v5 expected goals against per hour in the league, which suggests their goaltending propped up their impressive goals against numbers (they allowed the third-fewest in the league).

Jakob Chychrun had a surprisingly strong season, leading all Coyotes defensemen in WAR ( wins above replacement) according to Evolving Hockey. He drove offense at a respectable level, posted strong defensive numbers, and scored 12 goals with 26 points.

Ilya Lyubushkin was used in a sheltered role, but he did quite well there. If the Coyotes are smart, they’ll give him some more minutes next season and see if he can be a solid top-four defenseman.

Alex Goligoski led the team in points among defensemen with 32 while team captain Oliver Ekman-Larsson was just behind him with 30. Jason Demers, when healthy, is still strong defensively, though he’s not much of a play driver on offense. Jordan Oesterle finished in the green as far as relative expected goals for percentage.

Advantage: Nashville

Goaltending

The Coyotes’ greatest strength is their goaltending. If Darcy Kuemper had played a full season, he likely would have been a Vezina Trophy finalist (or at least would have deserved to be one). In just 29 games, he posted the fourth-highest GSAA (goals saved above average), according to Evolving Hockey.

Meanwhile, Antti Raanta finished with the eighth-highest GSAA. Their .919% team save percentage was the third-highest mark in the NHL. You could argue the Yotes have the best tandem in the league, especially if you consider their mediocre blueline.

Pekka Rinne has done a great job over the years defying age. This year, Father Time has finally caught up to him. His .895% save percentage this season is the lowest mark of his career. Juuse Saros started the season weak, but got better as the season went along. One has to imagine he’ll be the starter in the postseason.

Advantage: Arizona