2020 NHL Draft: The interesting, meteoric rise of Jack Quinn

One of the fastest risers in the 2020 NHL Draft, Jack Quinn, is a very intriguing prospect for many.

2020 NHL draft-eligible prospect Jack Quinn, born September 19th, 2001, in Cobden, Ontario, Canada, is a right-winger playing for the Ottawa 67’s in the OHL. Quinn stands at 5’11”, and 176 pounds. He went from starting the year out as a relative unknown, often being left out of draft rankings altogether, to now being a consensus first-round pick.

Bob McKenzie has him ranked 10th, Craig Button has him ranked 6th, with both guys showing a lot of love to the goal-scoring winger. Other sites have ranked him 16th (Elite Prospects), 20th (Future Considerations), and 10th (ISS Hockey and McKeens Hockey). I personally have Quinn ranked 16th overall, and I’ll get into why as we break his game down.

Quinn’s first full OHL season came in the 2018-19 year, where he played 61 games with 12 goals and 20 assists for 32 points. The reason for the relatively low point totals can be attributed to the lack of ice time, as per Pick224, he played just shy of 13 minutes per game.

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In 2019-20, however, Quinn was given a much larger role. Playing even more on the power play, alongside Marco Rossi, Quinn exploded onto the scene with 52 goals and 37 assists for 89 points.

Of those 52 goals, 15 came on the powerplay, and he finished the season with the 3rd most PPG among all 2020 eligible prospects. Going from almost 13 minutes per game to nearly 21 minutes per game will make a lot of people better.

However, there is cause for concern about consistency in his goal scoring, as his shooting percentage of 21.67% is at an unsustainable rate. That shooting percentage, in fact, was the 4th highest shooting percentage among all draft-eligible players with at least 100 shots.

Among players with over 150 shots, he had the highest shooting percentage. There is no doubt that number will drop in the future, and if it does, will Quinn still put up big-time goal totals, or was this season just a fluke?

Film Review

Statistics don’t show the entire story. If it were that easy, then there would be a very different feel about several top prospects in the 2020 draft. So with that, I gave Jack Quinn an in-depth eye test. First, let’s look at his skating abilities.

Jack Quinn has great top speed and smooth edge work. With his feet alone, he generates a lot of power off his back foot, and you can especially see that power when watching him shoot. However, he isn’t a technically sound skater, despite being a fast skater.

While Quinn has the edgework to pull off sharp turns and quick cuts to get through traffic, he doesn’t stop on the puck very often. He consistently loops and turns back and away when the play changes directions. This is a bad habit, as the extra half-second, it takes for him to loop back around to chase the play allows the opposition to blow by him. It’s extremely important that he gets into the habit of those quick stops and starts to be more effective as a skater, especially without the puck on his stick.

Another issue with Quinn’s skating, which isn’t as prominent, is his first two strides. Very often, he finds himself almost hopping into his first couple strides when accelerating. Hopping shortens his strides and takes away the power he could generate if he stayed low and displayed proper techniques in pushing off his back foot. He quickly adjusts and gets low to the ground and has powerful strides, but he needs to do the same for those first strides as well.

The next issue, again not exactly prominent, is his ankle bend. His ankles bend outward slightly, meaning when he is skating, he hardly utilizes his outside edges. It also hinders his ability to maximize his stride length by pointing his toes in a straight line when skating forward. Basically, because of his ankle bend, his toes point at an angle, so he almost snakes his way up the ice, as opposed to skating in a straight line. Again, minor issue, but worth mentioning.

Quinn displays hard work when it comes to forechecking and backchecking. When he’s the first one up ice to attack, he’ll attack with speed and aggression. When backchecking, he moves his feet constantly. He may not be the most effective at either end, in terms of forcing turnovers, but he has what a player needs to grow and become effective in those areas.

Offense

Now let’s talk about what makes Quinn super intriguing – his offensive game. Posting over 50 goals in the CHL is never an easy feat. But what concerns me, looking at his stats, is his crazy high shooting percentage. It’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, to consistently post the numbers he did year-to-year with that kind of shooting percentage.

The elephant in the room is his shooting abilities. He has a ridiculously quick release on his wrist and snapshots. Because of this, his shots are deceptive and can fool goalies consistently. It doesn’t matter where the shot comes, whether it’s in tight or from distance, that quick release alone makes his shot dangerous.

As mentioned earlier, Quinn generates a lot of power off his back foot that is most notable in his shooting ability. That power, mixed with his quick release, continues to bolster his strong shot. But that power and release would mean nothing without accuracy, and Quinn has a deadly accurate shot. Hands down, his shot is his best trait on offense.

As for his style, he drives the net very often. When he has the puck on his stick, he shows the strength, puck control and creativity to push past defenders to crash the net. His hands are also a strength of his, as he has the ability to stickhandle and fool goalies in tight with nifty and quick dekes.

Quinn doesn’t just drive the net when he has possession of the puck, however. He does it without the puck as well, often being used as a goalie screen. He has a knack for getting in those dirty areas and battling for that net-front presence.

That willingness to drive the net makes it easier, at times, for teammates to find him in a dangerous spot. When Quinn receives a pass, lookout. His one-timer is lethal, with loads of power behind it. He maintains his accuracy as well on those one-timers. He also broke loose for several breakaways throughout the season, and his hands and quick release gave him a massive advantage in those situations.

Quinn is also strong at generating rebounds for teammates to finish. He also shows strong vision, along with a solid passing ability, flashing his ability to go from a lethal goal scorer to a sneaky playmaker. However, that’s not exactly his style, as he leans on his shooting much more than his passing.

Here’s where my concerns begin, however. Quinn drives the net, and that’s a good quality to have. However, he drives the net with no true plan other than to drive the net. You especially see the almost reckless style of crashing the net when he is without the puck. He charges in, without looking to see if a pass is headed his way, and then when he gets there, he stops and waits.

Quinn oftentimes just floats in front of the net, waiting for the play to come to him. He doesn’t move his feet enough, making it easier for defenders to keep track of him. He can get away with that in the junior ranks, but top NHL defenders will shut him down almost every single time if he doesn’t move his feet and look for soft spots in coverage.

His off-the-puck movement in the offensive zone is a massive concern. This is a bad habit, and it isn’t easily coached out of a player. It must be Quinn himself who pushes to improve in this area of his game. If he doesn’t, even in the slightest, his goal-scoring prowess may never translate to the next level. With the hype surrounding him, to go along with the numbers he recorded, NHL teams will be expecting him to translate his scoring to the next level. That’s why teams should be hesitant, and it’s also why I don’t have him in my top-15.

Defense

This is where I begin to have a bit of a soft spot for Quinn. I always appreciate a forward prospect who has already established a strong two-way game. Guys like Anton Lundell, Theo Rochette, and Jaromir Pytlik are placed higher in my rankings than most others, and their strong defensive abilities are a leading contributor for that feeling. Quinn fits that bill.

He gets down low and supports the defense very consistently. He gets right in and disrupts the cycle well. His work ethic overall in the defensive zone shows through in spades, especially when it comes to getting down low to help his teammates defend.

Work ethic isn’t what makes him stand out. There are plenty of prospects who put in the hard work but don’t always get the results. Quinn, however, displays an excellent sense of positioning. He positions his body and stick effectively. He uses his stick well, clogging up passing lanes while using his body to cover shooting lanes.

He also displays an active stick. He constantly changes his stick positioning by reading the body language of the opposing puck carrier and the surrounding players. If the guy he is covering changes position, he moves his stick and even his body positioning to continue covering that player. That awareness, at a young age, is key.

His stick checking is strong, but not the most effective. His crash and burn style of charging the net on offense sticks with him on defense. He often charges at the opposition and slashes at the puck to knock it away. However, that aggression leads to him disrupting plays as opposed to forcing turnovers. If he can maintain his aggression, but reel it in and be more precise, could make him take an even larger step in the right direction with his already strong defensive zone coverage.

Quinn shows a willingness to block shots, as well. When his point man has the puck, he races up towards him and braces to block a shot, if he sees it coming. That willingness to block shots, his stick checking ability, his body and stick positioning, and his overall effort in the defensive zone, makes him an already solid player in the defensive zone at his age.

One trait that really stuck out was his patience during most breakouts. Quinn does an excellent job staying down low as support, rather than racing up ice to push for a breakaway or offensive rush. He often waits for his team to move the puck up ice before he begins to jump up in the play.

Most 2020 prospects find themselves racing up ice before their team fully possesses the puck to begin the breakout, and if the puck is turned over, they become short-handed for a little bit because of the impulse to push the offense.

Potential

The reason why I have a soft spot for defensively capable forwards is that, usually, if they’re already a strong defensive option with good skating abilities, they are a fairly safe selection. His style offensively, crashing the net and generating a ton of dangerous scoring chances, could make him a strong offensive option. However, his poor off-the-puck movements, if not adjusted, could limit his offense, and he’ll have to rely on his two-way game more.

His shot maps, shown below, display his abilities to generate scoring chances tight to the net. Another shot map, Valeri Nichuskin, has a very similar display to Quinn’s. However, Nichuskin currently doesn’t produce a whole lot in the way of points.

He is an analytical darling, but the counting stats don’t reflect that. Because of their similarities on offense and Quinn’s defensive capabilities currently, his floor could be that of Val Nichuskin. He could be a third liner, capable of penalty killing time and being relied upon with tough shut down minutes.

With his offensive concerns that I brought up, his goal-scoring may not translate smoothly, thus leading to him scoring at the same rate as Nichuskin.

If Quinn is able to improve his positioning drastically in juniors and is able to show consistency in his goal-scoring prowess from this past season, then he projects as a top-6 player at the next level. Though I am adamant to believe he can score 50+ goals in the NHL, he has the upside to be a consistent 35 to 40 goal scorer from a year-to-year basis. His playmaking, though not shown often, could be a massive help in his pursuit of NHL stardom.

If he can unlock the playmaking abilities that he showed in flashes, his dual-threat ability could make him an elite offensive presence. Only time will tell how far Quinn comes, but given the holes in his offensive game, and the potential of never repeating his draft year numbers, teams should be extremely hesitant early in the draft, and really consider every option on the table.