Connor Zary was a highly touted prospect entering the season. He didn’t rise up draft boards as the season went along, but he didn’t fall far either. What about his game stands out and makes him a first-round talent?
Connor Zary is one of the most interesting 2020 NHL Draft prospects, in my eyes. He’s one of the older first-year draft-eligible players in the 2020 draft class, making him a bit more mature physically and, in some cases, mentally. But despite that, he didn’t move much in the way of draft rankings, and I wanted to find out why.
Zary, born September 25th, 2001, in Saskatoon, Canada, is a center for the Kamloops Blazers of the WHL. Zary stands at 6’0” and 181 pounds, putting him on the slightly bigger side, compared to other 2020 prospects.
In Craig Button’s 2020 preseason draft rankings, Zary was placed at the 18th spot. Currently, after several updates, Zary finds himself placed 11th by Button. Bob McKenzie has him ranked 22nd, Elite Prospects has him ranked 25th, Future Considerations has him 17th, ISS hockey ranks him 15th, and McKeen’s Hockey puts him at 18th.
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The major thing that Zary has going for him is his experience in juniors. He is one of the very few players in this class, at 18 years old, to have played now 3 full seasons in the CHL. That sort of experience gives teams a much larger sample to sift through than most other prospects.
In his first WHL season, he played about 13 minutes per game, on average, per Pick224, and recorded a solid 11 goals and 18 assists for 29 points in 68 games.
Zary recorded 24 goals and 43 assists for 67 points in 63 games in his second WHL season. Of those 67 points, a whopping 51 were primary, and only 14 of those primary points were on the man advantage.
In his third season, his shortened draft year, he played a little less. Zary averaged a hair under 18 minutes a game, over a minute less than the year prior. Despite that, his production still exploded, as he recorded 38 goals and 48 assists for 86 points in 57 games. Of those 86 points, 65 were primary.
It’s also fair to point out that he had an advantage that some 2020 prospects didn’t have. He had experience and chemistry with talented linemates in Kamloops. His linemates Zane Franklin and Orrin Centazzo recorded 91 and 81 points, respectively. You have to imagine that Zary benefitted from playing on what ended up being a dominant line.
Film Session
First, let’s start with Zary’s skating ability. Right off the bat, Zary displayed above-average speed, both with and without the puck. While he doesn’t have that next gear that can allow him to leave defenders in the dust, he has the ability to get by defenders by combining his speed and slightly more mature physical stature to get through.
Because of the smoothness and fluidity in his stride, he has the ability to change directions with relative ease and quickness. This is a massive advantage for him, as it allows him the ability to constantly be facing the puck, even if there’s a change of possession.
One of his favorite things to do with the puck on his stick is to make a quick, tight curl to shake off an opposing attacker. He does this very often and he is extremely efficient as well. This ability gives him more room to work with off the curl, and it could open up passing or shooting lanes on offense.
Zary is a fairly technical skater, to a degree. He displays good ankle bend, and he keeps his toes pointed straight when he is skating. If you don’t understand why that’s a good technical skating ability, it’s because when you keep your toe pointed straight, your strides are straight, and it maximizes the length of your stride.
One thing Zary definitely needs to work on is his skating technique at full speed, without the puck. In his first few strides, when trying to accelerate to full speed, he stands a bit tall. He needs to get lower in his first few strides in order to generate even more power, which in turn will grant him a faster top speed.
Another issue with his skating technique at full speed comes after those first few strides. After he stands a bit tall on his first few steps, he then leans too far forward when skating full speed. He needs to keep the knee bend he has, as that gives him that power and fluidity that I brought up. However, he needs to keep his chest up and his back a little more straight. That will help with his balance, which I noticed was a bit of an issue. Straightening his back could even improve his top speed.
Finally, Zary needs to work on stopping on the puck. It seems that the curl back habit he developed with the puck translated into a bad habit without the puck. I mentioned this with my Jack Quinn evaluation as well, as stopping on the puck allows you to stick with the play far easier than curling or turning back.
It takes an extra half-second to curl back and chase a play, and that half-second could be enough for the opposition to blow past you. Especially fast skaters like Connor McDavid. This habit could eat Zary up at the NHL level. Not to mention, his speed isn’t exactly good enough for him to make up for that lost time from curling instead of stopping.
Defense
From the film I watched, I was completely unimpressed by Zary’s defensive game. That being said, I wanted to look at what other people had to say about Zary’s defense, just in case the sample of games I watched were just a handful of poor performances and not a true definition of his game. So, before I talk about what I saw, here’s what Tony Ferrari from DobberProspects had to say about him.
"“Connor Zary is a smart player but his high IQ doesn’t always translate to success defensively. He lacks a real explosive stride and small area quickness which generally leads him to concede too much room for the attacking player.”“He can get into passing lanes but doesn’t adapt to a dynamic offense very well. His defensive play is adequate at best but he will need to improve his defensive play, driven by improving his skating, in order to become a better 200-foot player if he wants to say at center at the next level.”"
Zary, as stated earlier, is physically mature, in large part to being older and more experienced than a majority of draft-eligible players. His physical maturity allows him to be successful along the boards and in the corners. He wins a good portion of battles in those areas in the defensive zone.
To stay on the positive end of his game, Zary is very responsible when it comes to body positioning and supporting his defense down low. He uses that strength to help contain the cycle and support his teammates in front of the net.
Zary is a good stick checker as well, specifically with his stick lifts. He knows how to time his stick lifts well and is good at pick-pocketing players. That ability gives him an additional advantage when battling along the boards.
While he does set himself up well with positioning, he doesn’t use an active stick to clog up passing lanes. A lack of an active stick normally wouldn’t be an issue, but add to that the fact that he puck watches constantly, and this could lead to him getting exposed in the NHL.
His lack of movement and not possessing a consistent active stick throughout the games I watched was concerning. It stems from a lack of overall effort in the defensive zone. One game, in particular, went to overtime, and in that overtime period, he showed excellent work ethic. He had his best period in the games that I watched, specifically on defense. That tells me he has the ability to be solid in that area, but he just doesn’t play with full interest.
The lack of a constant motor in the defensive zone is especially evident with his skating. When attacking the offensive zone, he moves quickly, and I see a lot of the strengths I mentioned about his skating. On defense, he just doesn’t seem motivated and gets burned. That skating is what Tony mentioned, and he’s exactly right about Zary giving the opposition too much room.
When Zary does attack, especially on the powerplay when he’s pursuing the opposition’s blueliner, he doesn’t get in shooting lanes very often. However, upon seeing his overall lack of effort in the film I watched, I wasn’t too surprised by this. He again just showed a lack of interest in putting his body in front of a shot to help his team.
Nothing shows his bad habit of puck watching and low effort in the defensive zone more than this clip right here.
What kind of effort was this from Zary?? (#18 in white) pic.twitter.com/ogVMrDZHGK
— Kyle Pereira (@pereira_report) July 28, 2020
He was caught back with a teammate, and even though his teammate had the puck carrier covered, he began gliding across the ice towards him. That allowed an opposing forward to skate behind his back and rush the net, completely uncovered. He’s lucky his goalie was sharp and made an excellent save.
Finally, as I believe this falls under his defensive abilities, is his forechecking and backchecking. Zary doesn’t always push himself on the backcheck, often gliding after he crosses the red line. He needs to work harder on the backcheck, though it isn’t exactly a necessary trait to have.
On the forecheck, however, he is very aggressive, but not precise. It’s somewhat easy for an opposing puck carrier to simply side-step past Zary and then move the puck up ice. He should look to improve in both of these areas.
Offense
On offense, this is where Zary presumably thrives. He’s been able to produce at a solid rate in all three WHL seasons, with his draft season being by far his best. Also, unlike Jack Quinn, he has more than one season to bank on for offensive production. So what exactly makes Zary a strong offensive player?
Right off the bat, his stickhandling ability is top-notch. Zary has a lot of creativity and confidence, which allows him to pull off some pretty spectacular plays in a blink of an eye. Whenever he finds himself in a pickle, he looks for the best opportunity to pull off a quick deke to get through and into space.
Zary’s hands are great, but unless he has good vision to go with it, he’s likely going to make some questionable plays. Luckily for him, his vision is high-end, and he’s able to spot the smallest of spaces to exploit. That allows him to take his creativity and stickhandling ability and pull off a quick and unexpected deke to get into space.
His vision isn’t limited to looking for room to get out of trouble. Zary uses his vision to find teammates open across the ice for a scoring chance as well. However, he does make some mistakes. He almost rushes himself to make a play at times, and it leads to him missing an otherwise easy pass. However, this is something that can be worked through with maturity and good coaching.
Zary shows confidence in his vision and stickhandling with his style of play in the offensive zone. How? He plays an east-west game as opposed to a Jack Quinn style north-south style. If you don’t know what that means, it means Zary likes to move side to side, or boards to boards, in the offensive zone, usually staying on the perimeter. North-south, which is the style Quinn has, is a crash-the-net style, basically attacking through the middle.
With that east-west game, Zary is constantly looking to exploit defenses with his passing abilities. It helps too that Zary has a high offensive IQ and anticipation. He seemingly thinks the play one step ahead, so that when he receives a pass on the perimeter, he is quick to move it. He rarely makes the wrong decision on those passes, but as I stated earlier, he does sometimes rush himself and simply miss passes.
However, Zary isn’t just limited to the perimeter. He does crash the net from time to time, and when he does, he can be very effective. His vision and anticipation make him a threat to score off rebounds that get to him.
His hand-eye is solid, and that makes him a threat for redirections. His strength allows him to win net-front battles, which is key when playing in that area. Finally, his stickhandling continues to prevail in tight, and if he gets the puck down low with space, he has the ability to dismantle the goalie with quick dekes.
To focus more on that anticipation I mentioned earlier, he uses his anticipation, vision, and creativity to be a quick strike player. Basically, those three traits allow Zary to pull off a quick play to catch the opposition off guard.
These quick-strike plays help Zary to score or set up teammates for goals of their own. This trait of his is going to be key when he makes the jump to the next level, as he can be dangerous with these quick strikes at any level. He just has to translate it to the NHL level, which is no easy task, but it is doable.
Zary isn’t limited to his playmaking and cheesy goals from in tight. He has a sneaky good shot too. I would say his shot is under-utilized, based on the games I watched, but one glance at Pick224’s stats, and his 257 total shots this season say otherwise. That stat is promising, as although his shot isn’t nearly as dangerous as most, he has a knack for finding the smallest openings and putting it through.
His shot does lack the necessary power and consistency to beat NHL goalies. However, his accuracy is there and his vision allows him to find those small openings. Zary also doesn’t have a particularly quick release on his shot. He tends to pull the puck back and take a half-second to find a spot to fire it. He should work on this aspect of his shot, as it could give him an added element that could be a threat for opposing goalies.
Zary’s off-the-puck movement is solid as well. This is key because it means that he knows how to get open and position himself to aid his team’s offensive attack. This kind of positioning will also help him translate his game to the next level.
If he can get into position and find soft spots in defensive coverages in the NHL, then he will get the opportunity to show off his hands, shot, and passing ability. His positioning at his age allows him to put more focus on other skills at the moment, which will only help him in his development.
Potential
Connor Zary isn’t a dynamic offensive player, but he has been consistent. He has the positioning and offensive arsenal that can translate smoothly to the next level. Based on what other people have said, he has a capable defensive game, but from what I’ve seen, it’ll require quite a bit of work.
That said, his floor is probably a fourth-line scoring forward. I see an NHL future for Zary based on how easily I see his game translating to the next level, at the moment. But if his defensive game doesn’t translate and his offensive game doesn’t become dominant in juniors, he likely tops out as a 20-30 point scorer from year-to-year. His leadership qualities and consistency aid him in that area of NHL certainty.
His ceiling, however, is arguably him topping out as a decent 1st line center. I don’t see him ever becoming an elite talent, unless he takes massive strides on defense, skating, and shooting in a very short time. I feel more comfortable saying he likely winds up as a strong 2nd line option, with a David Krejci-esque impact. I believe Zary could end up being that underrated 2C option for teams and be a dynamic, clutch leader for whatever NHL team drafts him.
Due to him being on the older end of the spectrum in this draft, along with his physical maturity, he could be closer to being NHL-ready then it currently seems. He’s seemingly already made strong strides on the defensive side of the puck from last season into this past season, and if that continues, he could shock a lot of people and be ready in two to three years from now.
However, I feel confident saying that Zary will likely take his time and get started in the AHL before an NHL chance emerges. His defensive game was too unimpressive for me, his skating is still a work in progress, and his shooting is not enough of a threat for me to believe he is a dual offensive threat just yet.
He’s still a high-end prospect, and he has the experience to back it up, and that’s why I ranked him where I did. However, it’s also clear he has a lot of work to do if he wants a shot at the NHL level.