Stanley Cup Playoffs: Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars series preview

Matchups

How do these two teams matchup against each other?

Forwards

The Calgary Flames top line features Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm. During the regular season, they were outscored 23 to 20 at 5v5 and posted relatively unimpressive underlying stats. That line was slightly better against the Winnipeg Jets, but still had below-average underlying stats.

Their second line, the 3M line, is probably their best line and they actually got more 5v5 time against the Jets than the Gaudreau line. Matthew Tkachuk is continuing to develop into a very unique player who is both skilled and annoying. Mikael Backlund had a strong year and Andrew Mangiapane was a pleasant surprise.

The Flames third line is a bit of an outcast line. It features Milan Lucic, Dillon Dube, and Sam Bennett. Each of those guys had issues heading into this season and Ward decided to stick with this group in the playoffs after putting them together late in the season. They held their own, though they don’t really generate much offense. They’re pretty good defensively, though.

Their fourth line is Derek Ryan, Tobias Reider, and Mark Jankowski. Reider had a shorthanded goal against the Jets. This line hasn’t seen too much time together, but they’ve treaded water in a short sample size. Most of their value comes on special teams, as each of them are among the Flames’ five most used forwards on the penalty kill.

The Flames got scoring throughout their forward group against the Jets. Everyone except Ryan and Jankowski scored at least one goal. If that keeps up, the Calgary Flames are going to be a tough team to beat.

On the other side of the ice, the Dallas Stars have pretty flexible lines. Head coach Rick Bowness isn’t afraid to mix things up. Tyler Seguin is injured, but will likely be able to play in Game 1. The Stars really need him to generate offense. NHL.com has them reuniting Benn, Seguin, and Alexander Radulov, though I think Dennis Gurianov will join them instead of Radulov.

Their second line will likely feature Joe Pavelski, Mattias Janmark, and Joe Pavelski. They scored one of the Stars’ few 5v5 goals during the round-robin tournament, but their underlying stats were downright horrific, though they did do better in the regular season.

The Stars third line will be the one driven by Roope Hintz. He’ll be joined by Jason Dickinson and noted pest Corey Perry. Like most of the Stars lines, they didn’t score as a trio during the round-robin tournament, though their underlying stats were strong. I like the energy this line has.  Andrew Cogliano, Radek Faksa, Blake Comeau will make up their fourth line.

Advantage: Flames

DEFENSEMEN

The Calgary Flames top pairing is their best one and it features Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie. They were great against the Jets, even though they got outscored 2-0 against them at 5v5. Expect that to change if they keep pushing the puck up the ice against a Stars team that is struggling mightily to score goals.

Their best pairing against the Jets, though, was their second pairing. Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson handled their own, as the Flames outscored the Jets 3-2 at 5v5 with them on the ice. Moreover, their underlying stats were terrific.

Derek Forbort and Erik Gustafsson looked quite strong in the play-in round. Both were acquired at the trade deadline for relatively cheap prices. Just goes to show you how important getting guys at reasonable prices is.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars top pairing is Esa Lindell and John Klingberg. They were very strong during the regular season, so I’ll give them a pass for a weak showing during the round-robin tournament. Their second pairing was quite impressive during the tournament, as the Stars outscored their opponents 2-0 when Miro Heiskanen and Jamie Oleksiak were on the ice.

Andrej Sekera and Stephen Johns make up their third pairing. They need to be better against the Flames than they were in the round-robin tournament.

Advantage: Stars

GOALTENDING

The Flames have David Rittich and Cam Talbot. Geoff Ward chose to start the latter and stuck with him even after a rough Game 2. Talbot repaid his coach with a steady performance against the Jets. Rittich is a nice plan B, but it’s clear Talbot’s the guy for the rest of the postseason.

On the other side of the ice, you could argue the Dallas Stars have the best goaltending tandem in the NHL. Ben Bishop suffered an injury that kept him out of Sunday’s game against the St. Louis Blues, but he looked good at practice on Monday, so expect him to get the nod. In case he can’t go, Anton Khudobin is one of the best backup goalies around.

Advantage: Stars

Key Players

Which players should fans keep an eye on?

Calgary Flames

The second pairing of Hanifin and Anderson looked as good as they’ve ever looked. Granted, they were playing against the Jets. But they were confident with the puck and didn’t spend much time in their own zone. If the Flames second pairing plays as well against the Stars as they did against the Jets, the Flames will basically have two top pairings.

Also, I’m curious to see how their top line does against the Stars. They rely a lot on rush chances, especially since the top line doesn’t really have a puck retriever. The Stars were effective at limiting them during the regular season, so that’s going to be quite the chess match.

Dallas Stars

Denis Gurianov is someone to watch. He’s quite skilled and the Stars have steadily given him more ice time. Gurianov is one of the few Stars players capable of taking over a game by scoring goals, so shutting him down is key for the Calgary Flames.

Prediction

This series is a coin flip. I could see either team winning. However, the Stars have simply not looked like a good hockey team since late February. They’re in a really bad funk and even though they got a shootout win against the Blues, they were less than a minute away from getting shutout. The Flames are a flawed team, but those flaws were much less visible against the Jets.

Flames in seven.