Stanley Cup Playoffs: Blue Jackets vs. Lightning series preview

In the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Columbus Blue Jackets will try to once again upset a dangerous Tampa Bay Lightning squad.

Last year in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, everyone remembers what happened when the Tampa Bay Lightning took on the Columbus Blue Jackets. Tampa got out to an early 3-0 lead in Game 1, but then Columbus stormed back to not just win Game 1, but the next three games as well. This led to the Lightning sending out an awkward breakup note to their fans via Twitter.

Well, it’s 2020, and it’s happening again. After upsetting the Toronto Maple Leafs in five games, the Blue Jackets will face the Lightning in the first round of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs. And yes, Columbus fans, it was an upset. They were the betting underdogs in each game against Toronto. In my mind, that makes it an upset.

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This year, it’s going to be a lot harder for Columbus to upset Tampa. The Lightning are in some ways better than they were last season. But it’s 2020 and, as we all know, chaos reigns in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and anything can happen.

Here’s how both teams have gotten to this point.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

The Blue Jackets must really like facing blue teams in the postseason. Their two postseason series wins have come against the Lightning and the Maple Leafs. Against the Leafs, Columbus was able to score enough to win and they got stellar goaltending from their tandem of Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzilkins.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Tampa finished second in the Eastern Conference round-robin tournament to set up a rematch of last year’s first round. They’re hoping it’s more like The Rock vs. John Cena, which saw the latter beat the former after the former beat the latter the previous year, then Shawn Michaels versus The Undertaker, which saw Michaels lose both times.

Matchups

FORWARDS

The Tampa Bay Lightning, even without Steven Stamkos, have an overwhelming advantage here. They’re led by Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Alex Killorn. Stamkos is still out with an injury and his return is questionable.

Anthony Cirelli probably should have been a Selke Trophy finalist. Ondrej Palat quietly put up a solid season with 41 points in 69 games. Pat Maroon provides the Bolts with the physicality they lacked last season. So does Blake Coleman. As does Barclay Goodrow.

On the other side of the ice, the Blue Jackets rely heavily on Pierre-Luc Dubois, Gustav Nyquist, and Cam Atkinson. Atkinson had a down year during the regular season, but finished the series against Toronto with a team-high five points.

Team captain Nick Foligno had three points while Dubois had four points. Nyquist only had one point in five games, but he did have 41 points in 70 games during the regular season. Alexandre Texier and Boone Jenner round out their top-six forwards. Oliver Bjorkstrand was virtually invisible against Toronto, which is surprising considering how good he was during the regular season. Liam Foudy has earned a spot in the lineup and after his Game 5 goal, it’s hard to see him leaving it.

Advantage: Lightning

DEFENSE

Without Victor Hedman, the Lightning defense could be vulnerable. He left Saturday’s game against the Flyers with an injury and didn’t return. Hedman could miss Game 1. If he does, Tampa’s defense looks noticeably weaker. Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak would likely become the top pairing, with Kevin Shattenkirk and Mikhail Sergachev becoming the second pairing. Braydon Coburn and Zach Bogosian would likely be the third pairing.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets lean heavily on their top guys. Zach Werenski had a terrific series against the Leafs. Seth Jones is healthy and should be an important cog as the Blue Jackets try to neutralize Tampa’s high-octane offense.

David Savard and Vladislav Gavrikov struggled as far as underlying stats, but Columbus outscored Toronto 4-0 when they were on the ice. Ryan Murray was the constant member of their third pairing. He’ll be with either Markus Nutivaara or Dean Kukan.

Advantage: If Hedman’s playing, Tampa has the advantage. But if he’s not, it’s a push.

GOALTENDING

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and he’s a Vezina Trophy finalist this season. He struggled in last year’s series, but perhaps the unplanned four-month break will prove to be useful for him. Vasilevskiy will be backed up by Curtis McElhinney.

On the other side of the ice, both Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzilikins were outstanding for Columbus against Toronto. The Leafs shot right around 2% at 5v5 and the Blue Jackets goalies were a huge part of that. According to Evolving Hockey, Korpisalo had a 3.76 GSAA (goals saved above average) against Toronto. Only Carey Price had a higher GSAA in the play-in round. Merzilkins had a 2.06 GSAA in two games.

Advantage: My brain tells me to give the advantage to Tampa, but if Korpisalo plays as well as he did against the Leafs, Columbus has the advantage. It’s worth pointing out Merzilkins has an injury. I’ll go with my gut – Columbus has the advantage.

Key Players

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

All eyes will be on Point and Kucherov, but keep an eye on Anthony Cirelli as well. He’ll probably be tasked with shutting down the Blue Jackets top line of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alexandre Texier, and Cam Atkinson. Tyler Johnson had three points in three games during the round-robin tournament. Without Stamkos, he’ll be expected to be an important contributor in Tampa’s top-six.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

Everyone knows about Dubois, but keep an eye on Oliver Bjorkstrand. He had zero points against Toronto, but it sure wasn’t due to a lack of effort. Per Natural Stat Trick, Bjorkstrand had 11 scoring chances at 5v5 in a shade over 67 minutes. Seven of those were high-danger chances, which led the Blue Jackets.

Also, Liam Foudy is very fast and capable of generating rush attempts, which could give Tampa some problems. The same could be said for Eric Robinson, but he doesn’t generate chances like Foudy can.

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PREDICTION

Without Hedman and Stamkos, this series is a darn close one. However, I think the Tampa Bay Lightning will be able to squeak this one out against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus won’t go down without a fight, though.

Lightning in 7.

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