Stanley Cup Playoffs: Capitals vs. Islanders series preview

The New York Islanders will face the Washington Capitals in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

With round-robin play finishing up on Sunday, the matchups are now set for the official first round of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs. For the New York Islanders, they go head to head with the Washington Capitals, a familiar foe.

This matchup is all a hockey fan can hope for, as the bad blood between these two clubs will certainly be boiling when the puck drops for Game 1 Wednesday at 3:00 PM EST.

Before the halt in play back in March, the Capitals were third in the Eastern Conference (41-20-8), riding the hot hand of defenseman John Carlson, a potential Norris Trophy winner, the usual superstar that is Alex Ovechkin, and the play of rookie goaltender Ilya Samsonov (16-6-2, 2.55 GAA, .913 SV%).

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But once play resumed, the Caps were without their young netminder (unfit to play), having to rely on a struggling Braden Holtby, who put up career-worsts in goals-against average and save percentage. To make matters worse, Carlson would leave with an injury during the first round-robin game against the Tampa Bay Lightning and would miss the remainder of those games.

It is still up in the air if Carlson will be able to play in this series. But he was on the ice today, and is taking steps in the right direction.

After going 1-1-1 in three games, the Capitals found themselves as the third seed, beating the Boston Bruins on Sunday, securing a matchup with the Islanders.

When play was halted, the Islanders were not in a playoff position, but the expanded postseason format gave them the opportunity to rewrite the story of a mediocre campaign.

Unlike the Capitals, the Islanders welcomed back injured players rather than seeing crucial players hit the shelf (Johhny Boychuk is skating again).

After defeating the offensively-talented Florida Panthers in four games, the team from the island will need to play a similar game against another high-octane offense.

Let’s take a look at the keys for both teams in what should be an outstanding series:

Washington Capitals:

Braden Holtby

The biggest key to this series for the Capitals is the play of netminder Braden Holtby, who is coming off the worst season of his NHL career. With the emergence of Ilya Samsonov and Holtby’s UFA status following this postseason, it seems that he may not be wearing the Capitals’ sweater for much longer. But regardless, he is the guy that Todd Reirden, the team’s head coach, has to ride, whether he plays well or terrible.

The good news for Holtby is that his career numbers against the Islanders are strong, posting a 2.44 GAA and a .918 SV % in 27 regular-season games.

The bad news is that the Islanders had Holtby’s number this season, as in three games he owned a 3.85 GAA and an abysmal .857 SV%.

The encouraging news is that the Saskatchewan native sported a .925 SV% with a 1.98 GAA in the three round-robin games, which leads me to believe that his regular-season struggles could be behind him, which does not bode well for anyone he goes up against.

Tom Wilson

One of the most hated Capitals among Islander fans is Tom Wilson, who has given them many reasons for their underwhelming feelings.

The fun began back in the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs when Wilson leveled defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky during Game 4.

This series, which ended in the Capitals advancing, created this rivalry and number 43 was a major reason why.

Now since then, Wilson has become more of a threat offensively then people could have imagined. Playing alongside Ovechkin surely helps in that regard.

This season, Wilson posted a career-high in goals and assists, with 21 and 23 respectively, leading to a career-high 24 points. But the craziest thing is that he has become a much more disciplined player, posting under 100 PIM for the first time in his career (93).

In the round-robin games, Wilson scored one goal, with three penalties to his name, adding 14 hits.

Playing on a line with Ovechkin and Evgeni Kuznetzov is perfect for Wilson, who distracts his opponents with his physicality, giving his linemates more time and space to make a play. Or on the flip side, his linemates take the attention of opposing teams, giving him higher-level chances at producing offensively.

Due to his offensive prowess, he also finds himself on the second power-play unit.

Against an Islander team that has taken their fair share of lazy, unacceptable penalties in this year’s playoffs, Wilson will need to be a pest and draw as many as possible. If he can be smart choosing his battles and limit his willingness to retaliate, he can be a key piece to the Capitals advancing.

Alexander Ovechkin

What can one say about Ovechkin, the greatest goal scorer of this generation? At the age of 34, Ovi does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon.

Over his career, the Russian superstar has owned the Islanders, as he has been a point per game player against this team throughout his illustrious 15-year career.

With 58 points in 58 games (39G, 19A), he clearly feels confident when going against the team in blue and orange.

Thanks to Islanders head coach Barry Trotz, who stood behind the Capitals bench from 2014-2017, Ovechkin has become much more reliable in his own zone, making critical plays on both sides of the puck which helped his team to their first Stanley Cup, back in 2018.

Despite being held off the scoreboard through the three round-robin games, expect Ovechkin to be a difference-maker in this series, particularly on the power play.

This power play, which has struggled so far in this year’s playoffs (10.00%), owned a respectable 19.4 PP% during the regular season with Ovechkin scoring 26.86% of his points while up a man (or two).

The Islanders in the Qualifiers took 13 penalties in four games, killing off 71.4% of them, tied for second-to-last so far this postseason.

If the Capitals can generate power-play time, Ovechkin is given a prime opportunity to fix his issues and make an even bigger difference.

New York Islanders

Anthony Beauvillier

The 23-year old Quebec native had a qualifying round to remember, with three goals and two assists in the four games against the Panthers.

He was electric, using his legs to create opportunities for him and his teammates throughout the series.

This is next-level hustle and foresight from Anthony Beauvillier. #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/XemP901rEx
— NBC Sports Hockey (@NBCSportsHockey) August 5, 2020

During the regular season, Anthony Beauvillier put up a career-high 39 points (21G, 18A), but also a career-high in blocks with 36.

Last year in the Islanders playoff run which lasted two rounds, Beauvillier was non-existent, posting just one point in eight games.

But this postseason, he seems possessed, and without his production and play in the first round, his team would be watching the remainder of the playoffs via a television.

He seems to be the life of this offense thus far, getting himself into great positions to release any type of shot given the situation. He has had luck via the one-timer so far, but his willingness to shoot from any angle is something that the Islanders, as a whole, struggled to do this season.

Beauvillier is currently shooting at an 18.8% clip throughout the playoffs.

With the Washington Capitals struggling defensively all year and in this playoffs, their top defensive pairing of Brendan Dillon and Dimitri Orlov (if Carlson is out) will be on against the Barzal line, giving Beauvillier a great opportunity to continue his success.

Semyon Varlamov

Getting the nod for the entirety of the Panther series, Semyon Varlamov played better than anticipated. After a solid, and more importantly, a consistent regular season (19-14-6, 2.62 GAA, .914 SV%) head coach Barry Trotz had faith to start him over Thomas Greiss.

A player who has seen injury and inconsistent play derail his career was given an opportunity for a fresh start on the island and he has made the most of it.

Having not played in a playoff game since the 2013-14 season, Varlamov seemed very comfortable. In the four games, he boasted a 1.77 GAA and a .932 SV%, coming up with big saves to help his team advance.

Despite a few mental errors, taking a rough penalty in Game 3 (team’s only loss), Varlamov did his job.

But now he faces another talented offensive group in the Capitals, a team he was a part of for the first three years of his NHL career. His career numbers against the Caps are strong, with a .924 SV% and a GAA of 2.74.

However, as nice as those stats are, he struggled this season against them, with a .896 SV% while allowing 3.39 goals per game.

If the defense in front of him, which was the team’s strength this season and more importantly in the playoffs, can limit the number of high chance shots, then Varlamov will have success in this series.

The Defensive Structure

As a coach, the biggest thing is having your team buy into your gameplan. And we have seen the Islanders due so under Barry Trotz since he joined the team last year. Despite losing their best defenseman Adam Pelech for what was supposed to be the remainder of the season back in early January, this team battled to play as strong as possible.

And while they did not end the year allowing the least amount of goals like they did following the 2018-19 campaign, they were top five this year, allowing 190 goals in 68 games (2.79 GA/G).

In the series against the Panthers, the Islanders were able to quiet one of the best offensive units in the league, allowing only 1.75 goals per game. The Capitals, on the flip side, have only been able to score on average 1.65 goals per game, which should give the Islanders confidence heading into this series.

And what is so crucial about this team’s defensive system is that it translates to offense. This Islander team does not light the lamp like some of the powerhouses we see in this league. But what they do that makes them so effective is they play shut down defense and are able to capitalize on their limited offensive opportunities.

Taking a look at advanced statistics, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, the Islanders own an SCF of 47.80%, meaning that they create under 50% of the scoring chances in a given game. While that may seem underwhelming for a team looking to win, the Islanders score off those chances 66.67% of the time.

Final Remarks

The Capitals and Islanders are completely different hockey teams. The Capitals are the better offensive team, while the Islanders ae the stronger defensive team. While that opinion may not back up the statistics we have seen over the last week of games, that is the reality. The biggest concern is the goaltending for the Capitals, so if Holtby can play like he did in the round-robin, then he gives his team a fighting chance against this tough Islander hockey club. But if he struggles, the Islanders, whose offense has awoken, are going to have a field day.

This series will be a physical one. The Capitals have the big bodies in Ovechkin and Wilson, while the Islanders have Matt Martin, and if applicable, Ross Johnston will be in there as well to counteract the Caps heavy hitters. My unbiased prediction: Islanders in 7