Dawson Mercer is a high-rated prospect in the 2020 NHL Draft. Despite that, he isn’t widely talked about and slips under quite a few radars.
Dawson Mercer, born in Carbonear, Newfoundland, Canada, on October 27th, 2001, is a right-winger for the Chicoutimi Sagueneens of the QMJHL. The right-shot winger stands at 6’0” and 179 pounds. He started the 2019-20 season off unranked by Craig Button but finished the shortened season ranked 17th by Button in the 2020 NHL Draft. That’s quite the rise.
Other experts and sites have him ranked all over the place. He’s ranked 15th by Elite Prospects, 13th by Future Considerations, McKeen’s Hockey and Bob McKenzie, and 12th by ISS Hockey. I personally have him ranked 16th.
Despite being a consensus top-20 prospect, nobody really talks about Mercer. He’s one of the select few prospects who has already played three full seasons at the CHL level.
In 2017-18, Mercer recorded 11 goals and 15 assists for 26 points in 61 games played. He only averaged a hair over 13 minutes per game, according to pick224, making his numbers a lot more respectable. 20 of his 26 points came at even-strength, and in total, 19 of the 26 were primary.
Despite not carving out a big role, especially on the powerplay, Mercer showed an ability to produce in a strong way in a very limited capacity. It was no secret that he was in for a big 2018-19 season.
In 2018-19, Mercer exploded with 30 goals and 34 points for 64 points in 68 games played. His ice time expectedly rose in his second full season, as he now averaged over 16 minutes per game. While he hadn’t locked in a top-line role, it was clear he was earning more and more looks from a young age. Of those 64 points, 52 were primary and 44 came at even-strength.
It was clear he started to lean a bit on the powerplay, though if you get time on the powerplay, chances are your production will rise. It isn’t negative if you rely on the powerplay, as you have to earn those special teams’ minutes. This performance in his second season, however, projected a spectacular draft-year performance.
In the shortened 2019-20 season, Mercer split between the team that drafted him, the Drummondville Voltigeurs, and his current team, the Sagueneens. Before the trade, Mercer had put up 18 goals and 24 assists for 42 points in 26 games, while wearing an “A” on his jersey.
With Chicoutimi, Mercer posted six goals and 12 assists for 18 points in 16 games. Basically, Mercer went from recording 1.62 points per game with Drummondville to 1.13 points per game with Chicoutimi. While he still produced over a point per game, but he slowed down substantially upon switching teams. It’s not as though his ice time even went down dramatically, as he finished the year with an average of almost 21 and a half minutes per game.
Not to mention, his even-strength production went down. Just 34 of his 60 points this past season came in those situations, while 21 of his points came on the man advantage. Also, 46 of his 60 points were primary, a step down from the year before. However, a trade can hurt a player’s momentum, especially if he has been on his previous team for some time.
All-in-all, Mercer isn’t an offensive dynamo, but he has been consistent and an all-around solid player. He’s a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type of player. Ben Kerr, a writer for Last Word on Hockey, went as far as comparing him to Jonathan Toews. Will the eye-test back that comparison up?
Film Session
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First, let’s start with Mercer’s skating ability. I wasn’t a fan watching him when he skated both with and without the puck, though he looked more confident when the puck was on his stick. But to avoid letting a relatively small sample of games take away from his overall game, here are what others had to say about Mercer’s skating.
"“He may not be the fastest player in the draft, but his speed is still well above average. The fact that he is smart with his positioning and his feet are always moving, help him to seem faster than he is. Mercer has excellent edgework and agility. This allows him to beat defenders in one-on-one situations. Mercer has excellent lower-body strength already. This gives him a powerful stride and he is able to fight through checks.” – Ben Kerr, Last Word On Hockey"
Without further ado, here’s what I saw in Mercer’s skating ability. All-in-all, Mercer has good, but not great, speed. He can win races to loose pucks with relative consistency, but he is by no means a burner. Mercer isn’t the type of player like Connor McDavid and Brayden Point, who effortlessly fly past slower defenders.
Another issue I had was his balance or lack thereof. I often saw Mercer get knocked down a bit too often when battling for the puck. While he didn’t always lose the battles because of falling, as he has the work ethic and determination to keep fighting while down on a knee, it’s still a bit of an issue.
I believe part of his issue with his balance is a poor ankle bend. I picked up on this with Jack Quinn, but Mercer’s ankle bend is much more noticeable, at least to me. His ankles bend outward, meaning he is mostly working on his inside edges. This ankle bend also leads to another technical flaw.
Due to his poor ankle bend, Mercer does not keep his toes pointed straight forward, which allows for a longer stride, as it keeps him in a straighter and more direct line. Improving on this could help with improving his top-end speed.
Mercer possesses a very explosive first few strides. This short-area quickness allows him to make up for turnovers or when he is out of position and needs to get back. This is especially seen when he is in the defensive zone. However, those explosive first few steps are a bit awkward. When he tries to get a quick burst of speed, he leans too far forward, looking like he is unbalanced and falling forward.
While he leans too far forward when building up speed for a quick burst, he tends to stand up too tall following those first few strides. He does a nice job keeping his back straight and chest up, but he doesn’t bend his knees low enough and looks a bit stiff. Getting lower can improve the power behind his strides, which can improve his top speed.
Most of the issues I brought up mainly came when he was without the puck. When Mercer possesses the puck, he has a wider stance. This helps for a variety of reasons, one of which is puck protection. The other reason is to be tougher to knock off the puck. That’s where he displays his lower-body strength the most, which is what Ben Kerr brought up in his report on Mercer.
Kerr’s other point, Mercer having excellent edges and agility, is spot on as well. Mercer is able to pull off tight turns without losing much if any, speed. His edges are also very smooth, and that’s shown in two ways. First, it shines in his ability to effortlessly open his hips and change from skating forward to backward. Second, it shows in his ability to weave through traffic and avoid defenders, both with and without the puck.
Defense
Perhaps where Mercer shines most is in his defensive game. Right off the bat, his defensive IQ is strong. He keeps himself reeled in and focused, staying in excellent positioning and hardly caught puck-watching or chasing.
Mercer has an active stick, which he uses efficiently by clogging up passing lanes and knocking down passes. He is more than willing to throw his body in front of shots if his team needs it. Plus, that short-area quickness I talked about gives him an advantage at times. This clip of Mercer defending while short-handed at 5 on 3 perfectly displays his hard work on defense.
Arguably one of the best shifts I’ve seen in my viewings of Dawson Mercer (#19 in red). Stays in excellent position, taking away passing lanes. Throws his body in front of a heavy shot. Diving effort and then racing back to position. Solid work ethic pic.twitter.com/OhFkjuihmy
— Kyle Pereira (@pereira_report) August 3, 2020
His defensive awareness stands out in other ways too. Mercer was clearly trusted in the locker room, as he was named an assistant captain on Drummondville this season, before being dealt. That shows that he isn’t afraid to take charge. His defensive awareness allows him to pick up on certain plays, and his leadership abilities allow him to communicate effectively. It seems as though, at times, Mercer is quarterbacking the defensive zone coverage.
Mercer keeps his head on a swivel, constantly keeping an eye out for any opposing forwards trying to exploit the defensive zone coverage. He also supports the defense down low and helps immensely against the cycle, though his balance needs a bit more work to be even more effective in this area.
Mercer is a very effective stick checker as well. As mentioned earlier, he possesses an active stick. But that’s not all, as he uses his stick to force plenty of turnovers. Most of the turnovers he generates are in the neutral zone when defending against the rush. He’s quick and precise with his poke checks and stick lifts. When he forces those turnovers, he is very quick to strike offensively.
On the forecheck, Mercer usually sits back. He isn’t often the first man in on the attack anyway, but either way, he tends to stick back and rely on his anticipation. That has worked well for him to this point, so if it isn’t broken, don’t fix it.
On the backcheck, Mercer doesn’t always move his feet full speed. Then again, he never really puts himself in a position to be forced to backcheck hard. He’s very responsible and tends to be quick to get back and force those turnovers in the neutral zone.
One last piece on Mercer’s defensive game is fairly important. He won 51.1% of the faceoffs he took, according to the QMJHL website. Though he didn’t necessarily dominate the faceoff circles, he was reliable for Drummondville and Chicoutimi all season long, and that’s important for centers, especially defensively responsible ones.
Offense
Before I get into his offensive game, I decided to look at what other experts had to say about Mercer in the offensive zone.
"Ben Kerr from Last Word on Hockey: “Mercer has very good hands and can beat defenders in one-on-one situations. His speed and agility allow him to take a defender wide and cut back to the front of the net. He can score goals with an excellent wrist shot. If defenders back off to defend against his speed, he has the smarts to use the defenceman as a screen and put that wrist shot on net with a quick release.”Tony Ferrari from DobberProspects: “Mercer is an opportunistic player who finds weaknesses in the opposition and exploits them. If he can continue doing that and improve on his scoring rates with Chicoutimi, he should be a top-15 lock heading into June.”"
Mercer’s offensive game is very well-rounded overall. Where he stands out most, however, is in his shooting ability. He has a strong and accurate wrist and snapshot. Not only that, but he possesses a great one-timer that, though it needs refinement, can be lethal.
One important thing when it comes to shooting ability is a players’ off-the-puck movements. If they’re not able to get into space and get open for an extended time in the offensive zone in Juniors, how will they do it in the NHL? For Mercer, that’s not much of an issue. He does a good job finding space to get shots or set up teammates in high-danger areas.
Mercer also loves driving the net, though he doesn’t do it as much as, for example, Jack Quinn. However, he does like getting to those dirty areas, fighting for net-front positioning, and finishing in tight. He has strong hand-eye to get deflections and quickly adjust and put home rebounds.
As for his passing, here’s where the well-rounded comment comes in. Though Mercer has a strong shot he doesn’t limit himself to just that. Not only does he have a strong vision to occasionally find open teammates in high-danger areas, but his passes are strong and accurate too.
What adds to his overall playmaking abilities is the fact that he has excellent puck control. Mercer is extremely difficult to knock off the puck, and his ability to fight through checks to get into an area to set up a strong scoring chance is key.
What helps Mercer, even more, is that he gets creative as well. He doesn’t make plays too simple, and always looks to pull something new off to fool defenders. If that doesn’t work, he uses that puck control to, at the very least, remains in possession of the puck.
Mercer isn’t the flashiest player, but he doesn’t simplify or limit his game, either. He shows confidence in his ability to maintain puck control in tough situations, and he also understands he has strong hands to dice up a defender, if needed.
That confidence, creativity, and passing skills mesh extremely well, and if he continues to refine that overall game, he could turn out being a very good playmaker at the next level.
Potential
Dawson Mercer, overall, isn’t the most prolific player out there. His skating is a concern for me, and overall his offensive game isn’t flashy and game-changing. However, he plays a strong and sound 200-foot game, and his offensive abilities are still very good. Ben Kerr from Last Word on Hockey claims Mercer has top-six potential while playing in all situations. He specified that he will reach that if he hits his full potential.
I see Mercer as a very strong 2C in the future, if he reaches his full potential. While he can easily be looked at as a future number one center, I believe his skating will hold him back just enough that he’d be best suited in an Evgeni Malkin or David Krejci type of role.
Mercer’s defensive game and dual-threat offensive abilities make him a bit of a safer option in the draft, especially when looking at some of the guys ranked around him. I think, at the very least, Mercer could be a Zack Aston-Reese type in the bottom-six – someone who can be heavily relied upon in certain situations but plays sheltered minutes.
In the grand scheme of things, Mercer is a relatively safe bet compared to many of the prospects around him, like Seth Jarvis and Rodion Amirov. He doesn’t have quite the upside, but if a team is looking for a very solid defensive-minded forward, and the likes of Jack Quinn and Anton Lundell are already gone, Mercer could be the perfect guy to scoop up.