Pittsburgh Penguins: Grading each player’s season

How did each Pittsburgh Penguins player do this season?

After taking the last week and a half or so to reflect on the Pittsburgh Penguins embarrassing defeat to the Montreal Canadiens, it is time for the Penguins end-of-season report cards. I combined the regular and postseason in the evaluation process.

2020 and the novel coronavirus pandemic have made it somewhat difficult to evaluate the regular and postseason as a whole. My first half report cards were released seven months ago! However, the Penguins need to be able to evaluate and analyze the big picture here. It needs to be done nonetheless.

It is difficult for me to determine how much weight to put on the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Sure, it was the playoffs. But it was also a four-game sample size, coming off of a five-month layoff in the midst of a global pandemic. I do not want to make irrational decisions based on this (or any) postseason. Context is very important here.

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Personally, I feel that poor coaching played a large role in the Penguins postseason failures over the last two years. Mike Sullivan has not maximized this roster. There are some obvious flaws, but I believe that the Penguins roster is still quite strong. Their third line and third defense pairs are the biggest problems on this roster. These season grades will reflect all of that.

Forwards

Sidney Crosby: B

Crosby’s regular season was a frustrating one. He missed 28 games due to sports hernia surgery. Following his mid-January return, he struggled a bit. His underlying possession and goal metrics were not where they usually are. Granted, he was without Guentzel and still trying to get to 100% health.

Of the Penguins core, Crosby had the best postseason. He was a lot healthier (in terms of injuries) in August than he was in January. The return of Guentzel also helped a great deal in terms of postseason production.

Evgeni Malkin: A-

Malkin’s regular season was terrific. He was on pace for 110 points. He carried the team and benefitted from a quality of teammate boost when Crosby was injured. His 21 shots on goal in the series led the Penguins. Carey Price was up to the task. I do not feel that the Penguins put Malkin in the best position to be successful in the postseason.

The trio of Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust was dominant in the regular season. They were never re-united against Montreal. The coaching staff botched the powerplay, which often had Malkin over in the left circle. That took away his one-timer. The Penguins announced that Malkin recently underwent successful elbow surgery.

Malkin had only 1 point in 4 games, but he was generating shots & scoring chances. Despite an injury and poor coaching, Malkin’s process was pretty good. Sometimes the puck just does not go in.

Jake Guentzel: A-

Prior to undergoing shoulder surgery on New Year’s Eve, Guentzel was on pace for a 90 point season. He has developed into an elite winger. He was having the best season of his career. His possession numbers were the best of his career and great relative to his teammates.

From a production standpoint, his postseason was not at the standard we are accustomed to here in Pittsburgh. We have to factor in that Guentzel was returning from seven months of recovering and rehab. He was also still getting his timing back.

Bryan Rust: A

What a breakout season Rust had. He displayed more poise and increased confidence when the puck was on his stick. He was a tremendous fit alongside Malkin and is a bargain at a $3.5M cap hit. His shooting percentage has climbed in three straight seasons.

I do not expect Rust to sustain his 17.9% mark from the 2019-20 campaign. In the postseason, Rust was not on the top powerplay unit. For a team that has failed to replace Phil Kessel on the left half-wall, that is a stunning decision.

Jason Zucker: A

Zucker has thrived during his brief Penguins tenure. He has been a seamless fit in this system. His speed and puck pursuit ability fit the Penguins style of play and complement both Crosby and Malkin. Combining the regular and postseason, Zucker has produced 8 goals and 14 points in 19 games. Relative to his teammates, Zucker’s underlying metrics are elite.

Conor Sheary: B

I was very surprised when the Penguins traded Dominik Kahun to re-acquire Sheary. Regardless, I feel that he was a solid fit here. Per Natural Stat Trick, Sheary was the Penguins’ most productive postseason player at even strength. He led the team in points per hour at 2.12. I would explore bringing him back. His speed and playmaking ability could help the third line become more productive.

Patric Hornqvist: C

His underlying metrics have dropped off in three consecutive seasons. The Penguins have been generating fewer scoring chances and have had less of the expected goals share over that same timespan. When you account for his style of play and injury history, there are some serious red flags here moving forward. His decline will not be pretty. It is probably time for the Penguins to explore moving him.

Jared McCann: D-

In the first half of the season, McCann appeared to be heading towards a lucrative contract extension. The second half, not so much. His last goal came on January 14th against Minnesota. He did not score a goal over the final 26 games of the Penguins season.

While he is only 24 years old, he does not strike me as a gifted passer, puck carrier, or facilitator. Nick Bonino was capable of doing all three of those. We know how important the third-line center is to this era of the Penguins winning championships. I am no longer convinced that McCann is the long-term answer.

Patrick Marleau: F

Marleau has had a terrific & hall of fame caliber career but he was never a fit with the Penguins. Granted he was only here for 12 games, but he never developed chemistry alongside any of the Penguins centers. It appeared that father time caught up to him in the postseason. I’d be stunned if he is in a Penguins uniform when next season begins.

Teddy Blueger: B

After a strong start to his NHL career, Blueger solidified himself as the Penguins fourth-line center in 2019-20. Blueger’s possession numbers improved from his rookie season. Mike Sullivan referred to him as the “glue” that keeps the Penguins effective fourth line going. He scored an even-strength goal in the postseason and did not make any glaring errors.

Zach Aston-Reese: B

ZAR was one of the best defensive forwards in the entire league in 2019-20. He played a key role in the Penguins’ ability to suppress opponents’ shots and scoring chances. Like Blueger and Tanev, he was trusted in defensive zone situations and on the penalty kill. He took a bad retaliatory penalty in Game 3 and was guilty of over back-checking on multiple occasions against Montreal.

Brandon Tanev: C

Tanev seemingly drew a boatload of penalties through October and November. That tailed off as the season went on. Per Natural Stat Trick, Tanev’s primary assists per hour (0.15) ranked dead last on the team in the regular season. His speed and energy are valuable, but difficult to place an exact value on. The numbers indicate his postseason performance was just average.

Evan Rodrigues: C

After being acquired from Buffalo, Rodrigues only played in 7 games as the regular season concluded. His possession numbers were pretty good. Rodrigues did not play in the postseason, so there is not much to say there. He is a restricted free agent, but he would likely accept a tender of $2 million dollars. If the Penguins can sign him for cheap, I would expect Rodrigues to return.

Sam Lafferty: F

I just do not see him as an NHL player at the current moment. He burst onto the scene in October but tailed off in the following months. His possession numbers throughout the regular season were pretty poor.

At best, I see him topping out as a fourth-liner. The decision to dress Lafferty over Evan Rodrigues was questionable at best. Pittsburgh got outshot 8-2 and outchanced 5-2 by Montreal with Lafferty on the ice. I would not re-sign him.

Nick Bjugstad: F

Considering he has not played since the 8th-grade picnic, it is easy to forget about Bjugstad. He played in just 13 regular-season games. He has had multiple surgeries and does not have the skating or puck distribution ability that the Penguins need.

From a territorial standpoint, his 2018-19 season was good. It is hard to judge his 2019-20 because of the small sample size. I suspect the Penguins will try to trade him, but who will be their third-line center?

Defenseman

Kris Letang: A-

The large majority of Letang’s regular season was elite as usual. He and Brian Dumoulin form an excellent top defense pair. When Dumoulin got injured, Jack Johnson was elevated to the top pair. For as great as Letang is, even he cannot prop Johnson up. That decision was a huge detriment to Letang and the team.

It is a huge reason why the Penguins even had to play in the qualifying round. In the postseason, Letang did not register any points and was a -2. Pittsburgh was just average in terms of controlling territory with Letang on the ice against Montreal.

If the Penguins trade him this summer, their Stanley Cup window will be slammed shut. He is still the straw that stirs the drink in terms of helping the Penguins consistently be above average in generating offense.

Brian Dumoulin: B

Dumoulin continues to compliment Letang’s game very well. He missed a large chunk of the season due to ankle surgery. In the postseason, he was not as solid as he usually is. He was not breaking up opposition passes or starting the occasional breakout. He just looked a bit off. As we know, that was a four-game sample size.

John Marino: B+

What a find Marino was. At age 23, he performed like a 10-year veteran. Marino’s calmness and composure are incredible. He is terrific at disrupting opponents’ offensive zone entries and winning 1 on 1 battles.

In my opinion, he was not getting enough attention in terms of being a Calder Trophy finalist. His postseason was just average, but he made a huge impact on this team and is a great fit on the second defense pair.

Marcus Pettersson: B-

I thought Pettersson’s performance was fine throughout the regular season. His underlying numbers were once again just above average. In terms of stature and style of play, Pettersson is similar to Dumoulin.

I’d reckon Dumoulin is better from a defensive standpoint while Pettersson possesses more offensive upside. Opposing forwards do appear to get behind Pettersson on a frequent basis. I’m not sure if that is a hockey sense or skating problem, but becoming more alert could help Pettersson moving forward. He and John Marino will be Penguins for the long haul.

Justin Schultz: F

When Ian Cole was his partner, we witnessed Schultz being effective in a sheltered role alongside a quality two-way defender. With Jack Johnson as his partner, all hell broke loose. The Penguins essentially took him back to his Edmonton days, in which Schultz was playing alongside bad players and being asked to do too much.

Schultz has gone through multiple lower-body injuries and is just a shell of his former self. He struggled mightily in the postseason and I would be stunned if he returns.

Jack Johnson: F

Ah, the most predictable grade yet. He hinders this team in so many ways. The data is overwhelming. Signing him from the get-go was asinine. During his NCAA career at Michigan and NHL career in Los Angeles, Columbus, and Pittsburgh, Johnson’s teams have never won a playoff series.

You can not shelter him. He is below replacement level and opponents feast when he is on the ice. If the Penguins want to win a fourth title during this era, they must trade him prior to next season. If not, then their postseason struggles will continue.

Juuso Riikola: B

The resistance from the Penguins coaches to dress Riikola was bizarre. Just a friendly reminder that according to Natural Stat Trick, Pittsburgh generated 57% of the scoring chances with Riikola on the ice in 2019-20. In 36 games, Riikola’s expected goals percentage of 58.74% was the best of any player on this roster.

As it turns out, the Penguins did indeed match that expected total, scoring 58.33% of the goals during 5 on 5 play. He should have replaced Johnson in the lineup in both the regular and postseason. Unfortunately, he never got that opportunity. I suspect he will sign elsewhere when free agency begins.

Goalies

Matt Murray: D

The reality of it is Murray’s performance has been below average for the last two seasons. He has started slow out of the gates and lost his job to both Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith for large parts of the regular season. He was not the more deserving player goaltender to play the first three games of these playoffs.

The Penguins appear to have based their decision here on experience, a gut feel, and past postseason performance. It was a decision-making flawed process. I am not surprised Murray was replaced in Game 4. Keeping him over Marc-Andre Fleury was the correct decision.

Murray was outstanding in 2016 and 2017. I suspect his time as a Penguin is coming to an end. Toronto and Minnesota are two teams to keep an eye in terms of being potential trade partners here.

Tristan Jarry: B

Way back in September during the first training camp, Jarry’s performance surprised me. I thought Casey DeSmith was set to be the backup once again. I was wrong. Not only did Jarry win the backup job, but also the starting job.

He was better than Murray in 5 of 7 key statistical categories. He was the better netminder throughout the course of the season. By all accounts, his practice habits have improved a great deal from earlier in his career. In all likelihood, he will be a cheaper option than Murray during contract negotiations.

Head Coach

Mike Sullivan: D

In the early portions of the season, Sullivan helped transform the Penguins into an elite shot suppression team. He helped keep the Penguins afloat as Crosby, Malkin, and Bjugstad all missed time. Overall, Sullivan did a great job until the injuries hit on the Penguins blueline. Losing Dumoulin and Marino is when the Penguins season began to unravel. Jack Johnson was promoted to the top pair. A 6 game losing streak followed.

The postseason was a mess. Sullivan got outcoached for a fourth straight postseason (yes, I’m including 2017 in that). Regardless of whether it was Sullivan or former assistant Mark Recchi making the power play personnel decisions, the usage of Justin Schultz was odd. Why Bryan Rust was not on that top unit is bizarre. He should be on the hot seat moving forward.

We’ll see what changes the Penguins deem necessary in the coming months. The core of Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Guentzel should not be touched. In my opinion, the holes on this roster are relatively obvious and correctable. Hopefully, they get taken care of. Thanks for reading!