Stanley Cup Playoffs: Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars series preview

The second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin on Saturday night, as the second-seeded Colorado Avalanche will face off against the third-seeded Dallas Stars.

The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars are set to do battle in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs after eliminating the Arizona Coyotes and Calgary Flames, respectively, in the first round. This series will feature a potent Colorado offense against a stingy Dallas defense, and it has me feeling conflicted.

Back in October, I picked the Stars to win the Stanley Cup because of how close they were to eliminating the St. Louis Blues last season and because they added some great pieces in the offseason.

However, after Dallas continued to struggle with scoring and dealt with months off thanks to COVID-19, I jumped on the Avalanche bandwagon in July. The Avs were my pick to win the Central division back in October, so I’ve been high on them all season, but the round-robin was what pushed me to their side.

Now, these division foes will be meeting in the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 Western Conference Quarterfinals, which the Avalanche won in five games. This is the fifth postseason meeting overall, as each team has defeated the other in two playoff series since the Colorado franchise moved to Denver in 1995.

This season, the teams met on four occasions, with the Stars emerging victorious in all four contests. The clubs also met in the round-robin play, and the Avs took that game 4-0 to earn a higher seed in the playoffs.

The Avalanche won two out of three of those round-robin games, in fact, to claim the second seed in the West, before knocking out the Coyotes in five games. Dallas won only one round-robin game, then eliminated the Flames in six games.

The Matchup

These two teams really could not be more different. The Avalanche succeed by scoring goals, and were outscored by only three teams in the regular season. That elite scoring has carried over into the playoffs, as Colorado has posted 31 goals in eight games, including seven in each of its last two outings.

Dallas, meanwhile, allowed fewer goals than all but one team in the regular season, though the defense has been a bit looser in the playoffs. After conceding 2.57 goals per game in the regular season, the Stars are giving up 3.00 goals per contest in the playoffs.

Where the difference was really evident between these rivals in the regular season was the goal differential. The Stars were only a +3, as the team managed only 180 goals over its 69 games. The Avalanche were a +46, surrendering only 191 goals, a nice compliment to its high-powered offense.

That is why I believe this series will be decided by the Stars offense and the Avalanche defense. Obviously, over the course of a best-of-seven series the Avs offense will get the best of the Dallas defense, and vice versa. The key, then, will be whether the Colorado defense stands tall, or the Stars find a way to score more goals.

Key Players

Having covered the Avalanche in the last round, I know exactly how dangerous the team’s offense is. Nazem Kadri is one player that has to be watched closely in this series after his performance against the Coyotes. He has compiled 11 points in the playoffs so far and has been a fantastic complement to Colorado’s lethal top line.

Speaking of the top line, there is no way to discuss key players and not mention Nathan MacKinnon. His 13 points continue to lead all players in the playoffs, and the way he controls the play at even strength and on the power play is mesmerizing. I have no doubt he will be good in this series, but if he continues to be great, the Stars are in trouble.

The third player to keep an eye on for Colorado is Andre Burakovsky. He came up with some big goals against Arizona, including the game-winner in Game 2, and his championship experience and scoring touch make him a top candidate to strike in big moments, especially if the Stars find a way to bottle up the top line of the Avalanche.

For the Stars, Anton Khudobin will be squarely in the spotlight. Not only has he been thrust into the starting role, but he also faces a huge task against the Avs. Just look at Darcy Kuemper, who was outstanding for the Coyotes, yet still could not save them from Colorado’s offensive juggernaut. I expect Khudobin to get more defensive help than Kuemper did, but he will still be fighting an uphill battle.

Another player to watch closely is Joe Pavelski. When he signed with Dallas last summer, I thought it was a perfect fit. In the regular season, though, he mustered only 31 points in 67 games. With that being said, he has found his groove in the playoffs, recording six goals and eight points through nine games. He will need to keep scoring if Dallas wants to keep pace with the Avalanche.

Finally, Miro Heiskanen is the defenseman that could have the biggest impact on this series. He led the team in time on ice per game in the regular season, playing 23:46 on average, and he continues to do so in these playoffs, logging 26:05 per game. Not to mention, he leads the Stars in postseason points with 12 in nine games. It will be his responsibility to not only provide offense, but to also slow down the Avalanche attack.

This series ought to be competitive and long. When they are on their game, both of these teams possess the ability to be one of the best teams in hockey. When it’s all said and done, the Avalanche will win this series in seven games.