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Stanley Cup Playoffs: New York Islanders vs. Philadelphia Flyers series preview

By Stefen Rosner|
Tyler Pitlick #18 of the Philadelphia Flyers (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Tyler Pitlick #18 of the Philadelphia Flyers (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

The New York Islanders get set to face their rival in the Philadelphia Flyers in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Since these unprecedented Stanley Cup Playoffs began, the New York Islanders and the Philadelphia Flyers have been playing great hockey. The Islanders were able to defeat the Florida Panthers in the Qualifying Rounds in four games, then beating the Washinton Capitals in five.

The Flyers were unbeaten in their round-robin play earning the top seed, knocking off the Montreal Canadiens in six games in the first round. Now, these heated rivals, who have not met in the postseason in 33 years, meet up for round two, in what should be an excellent series.

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Before we dive into this series, let’s take a look back at how these two did against one another during the shortened regular season. While this has no bearing on the results of this series, it is worth a mention.

The Islanders were able to take all three meetings this season, outscoring the Philadelphia team 14-9. The first two meetings on this season came during the Islanders’ best stretch of the campaign, in which they picked up a point in 17 straight games from Oct. 12 to Nov. 21.

In the first meeting, a 5-3 Islanders win, second-year netminder Carter Hart was pulled after allowing five goals on 14 shots, with Islanders’ netminder Semyon Varlamov stopping 28-31.

The second meeting saw these teams play a close game, with the Islanders coming away with a narrow 4-3 win via a shootout. Both Varlamov and Hart would take a seat for this one, as Thomas Greiss and Brian Elliott battled it out.

The third and final meeting of the year came on Feb.11, where the Islanders came away with another 5-3 win. Hart did not start this game again for the Flyers. Varlamov did for the Islanders, stopping 35-38.

Why put emphasis on the netminders for each game?

Despite both teams playing incredible hockey so far in this year’s playoffs, both goaltenders have played enormous roles in their team’s success.

During the regular season, Hart put up a 24-13-3 record with a 2.42 GAA and a .914 SV%. In the playoffs thus far, his first crack at it, Hart has been phenomenal, owning a 1.71 GAA and a .943 SV% (2 SO). While he only played once against the Islanders this year, that could be due to the Flyers being on the second leg of games on back-to-back nights for all 3 meetings.

For the first time back int he playoffs since 2014, Varlamov has been slightly better, playing to a 1.67 GAA, with a .934 SV% (1 SO). One could say that Hart’s play is more critical to the success of his team then Varlamov’s play is for his given other statistics which we will dive into right now.

Statistics Telling a Story

When teams are having success, we need to look at the reasons why.

The Islanders have surprised many, as their offense has come alive in the playoffs, scoring 3.33 goals per game. What was not a surprise is their stellar defense, which has played a crucial role in the Islanders, sitting at the top when it comes to allowing goals, only giving up 1.67 goals per game.

The Flyers, who are thought to be the better offensive team, have only scored 2.44 goals per game, but are right behind the Islanders, allowing 1.78 goals per game.

The Islanders’ Achilles heel this postseason has been their inability to come through with the extra-man, only scoring at 15.8 % on the power play. This will need to be improved upon if they want to get past the Flyers. Too many chances went by the board against the Washington Capitals, but fortunately, it did not come back to bite them.

For the Flyers, their power play has actually been worse, only coming through 10.3% of the time. Going against an Islander team whose penalty kill sits at only 75%, being able to come through on the power play may be the deciding factor.

Clearly five on five hockey has been better for both clubs.

Besides looking at these basic statistics, let’s dive into some advanced ones.

Both these teams in the playoffs posted similar advanced statistics. When discussing Corsi For % (percent of shots for team in a given game), both teams have not generated the majority of shots in a game, with the Islanders holding a slight edge (48.41%) over the Flyers (45.57%).

Goals For %, which is exactly what you think, has the Islanders on top of everyone in the NHL Playoffs, scoring 66.67% of the goals in a given game. The Flyers are fourth at 57.87%, as both teams score the majority, which makes sense given their stellar records thus far.

The last advanced statistics that we will look at is the percentage of goals scored off scoring chances (SCGF%). What this stat shows is how well a team comes through on their offensive opportunities.

Both these teams sit in the top three, with the Islanders currently at 61.67%. The Flyers, again, breathing right down their necks at 58.62%.

While the Islanders do sweep in these chosen categories, both teams did extremely well, showcasing why this will be a tough series to win for both sides.

Key Player for Islanders

There is a list of players that need to step up for the Islanders to get past this Flyer team, the player I am going with is centerman Mat Barzal.

Playing well this postseason with seven points in nine games (3G, 4A), it took Barzal a little bit to wake up and find his legs.

The 23-year old center did a better job following the Qualifying Rounds, coming through with huge goals for this Islander team.

There was no goal bigger than his Game 3 overtime winner, in which he gave the Islanders a commanding 3-0 series lead.

With the way the Islanders’ second line played in the last series against the Capitals, it is worth mentioning that they may draw the attention of the Flyers’ top defensive pairing, leaving Barzal against the second or third unit. While that does not mean it will be a walk in the park for this young player, it may provide him with a better opportunity to be successful.

One thing that Barzal has brought into this playoffs is his willingness to backcheck. We have seen him use his speed to turn on the jets, helping to break up odd-man rushes that could have cost his team big time. Against a Flyers’ team full of speed and skill, having a player like Barzal to help out on defense, as well as offense, is a crucial benefit.

A player that has struggled at times to take care of the puck, has been rather responsible so far in postseason play. A player who averaged 1.51 giveaways per game during the regular season, has only turned the puck over twice in nine games (.22 times per game). To go with that, and to back up my statement prior, he has six takeaways. He will need to continue to play well in the faceoff circle, where has won exactly 50% of his draws thus far.

Key Player for Flyers

While Carter Hart needs to be this team’s best player, another player has really come to life in this year’s playoffs and will need to continue that in this series.

One player that has truly struggled, but needs to have a breakout series is nine-year veteran Sean Couturier.

The Pheonix-native has yet to score in the playoffs, providing five assists, while accumulating 14 PIM. He has won 59.3% of his faceoffs in the postseason.

This player, slotted in the number one center role, has to show some more life offensively. His top line, with Michael Raffl to his left and Jakub Voracek on his right, has accounted for 31.82 percent of the goals the Flyers have scored this postseason.

While Couturier did not surpass 30 goals during the regular season, as he did in the previous two seasons, this is a guy who is a threat with the puck on his stick.

Over his career against the Islanders, he has scored 10 goals and 18 assists for 28 points in 37 games. That is the most points against any team he has faced throughout his career. This season against the Islanders he picked up two goals and an assist in three games.

Final Thoughts

Looking at the statistics and the way these teams both play, it would not be a shock to see this series go the distance. Both teams focus heavily on the defensive side of the puck, but the Islanders have the advantage on offense and even an advantage on the power play. If both goaltenders can continue their strong play, my professional opinion is that we will see the Islanders advance in six games.

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