New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning series preview

Who will win the Eastern Conference Final between New York Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning?

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been waiting patiently since August 31st to find out who their opponent would be in the Eastern Conference Final. It would take seven games, but the New York Islanders would come out on top against the Philadelphia Flyers in Game Seven, as the matchup is now set. The first game of the series will begin Monday night at 8:00 pm on NBCSN.

On the surface, the Tampa Bay Lightning will be heavy favorites to make their way into the Stanley Cup Final, as their offense is so dynamic, as well as their defense and netminder. But this Islander team has flown under the radar this postseason, not being given the credit they truly deserve. For a team “lacking a goal scorer”, the Islanders rank second in goals scored this postseason with 54, averaging 3.38 goals per game (ranks third).

The Lightning, who scored the most goals in the regular season (243), averaging 3.47 goals per game, have only netted 34 in their postseason run. They are allowing 3.00 goals per game. That is a 20 goal difference. This does not take away from a Lightning offense that has done their job well enough to get to where they are right now.

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Looking at the defensive side of the puck, these teams are very similar. The Lightning have allowed the fewest goals (30) of the remaining teams, with the Islanders close behind at 31. Before we dive into some key pieces for both sides, let me tell you about some advanced statistics.

My two favorite stats to look at (all strengths) is Goals For Percentage (GF%) which is the percentage of goals scored in a game by a certain team and Scoring Chances Goals For Percentage (SCGF%) which depicts what percentage a team is coming through when given scoring opportunities in a game.

The New York Islanders sit atop the league this postseason in both categories, with a GF% of 63.53 and an SCGF% of 63.08.

While the Lightning were not as good in these categories as the Islanders, their numbers are still strong, with a GF% of 53.94 and a SCGF% of 51.67.

The Islanders took the regular-season series two games to one, outscoring the Lightning 11-6.

Keys For New York Islanders

For the Islanders, this series will be the toughest one yet. Despite knocking off the Flyers, the number one ranked seed after round-robin play, this Lightning team has been one of the best teams in the league for a couple of years, with an abundance of weapons on both sides of the ice. While they have a ton more big-name players when compared to the Islanders, the way the Islanders play makes it a nightmare for their opponents. Here are my key factors for this Islander team in what should be a rather exciting series.

Goaltending

Semyon Varlamov has been the go-to guy for head coach Barry Trotz and this Islander team during this outstanding playoff run. While Thomas Greiss got the nod for Game 7, where he denied 16 of 16 Flyer shots, this is Varlamov’s crease as I expect him to be in there when the puck drops on Monday.

Varlamov’s statistics have been remarkable, despite some shaky play since being pulled in the first period of Game Two, after he set an Islanders record for the longest shutout streak in team history (138:17) passing the great Billy Smith who held the record at 136:20.

His .921% save percentage ranks third in the playoffs, allowing just 2.00 goals per game. He had been coming up big for this team, but the play of Greiss (.960 SV%, 1.08 GAA, 167 minutes) has really given fans a mixed feeling on who should be in there. Luckily for the players, the fans do not make the call.

This season against the Lightning, Varlamov went 1-1, with a .951 SV% and a 1.52 GAA. Over his career, the 32-year old veteran has played this team quite well, owning a 10-7-2 record, with a .923 SV% and a 2.34 GAA.

Now Greiss should be ready when called upon, just like throughout the Flyer series. The German netminder has posted a .918 SV% and a 2.94 GAA in 11 career games against the Bolts.

Top Line for Islanders

You need your best players to step up in key moments, as the Islanders top line of Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal, and Jordan Eberle (hold that thought, I know).

This line combined for six goals and 10 assists throughout this series, as Anders Lee netted four of them.

Lee has been as consistent as they come in the playoffs, using his big body to win inside possession near the crease, screening goals, and generating plenty of chances for his team.

For Mat Barzal, this was a tough series physically, as his face took a ton of damage. First he was hit under his eye on a follow-through in Game Six, forcing him to miss the end of the third and overtime. He also took a puck to the head in warmups of Game Seven, before taking Eberle’s stick to the face in the game, giving him a nice gash to add to the ones he already had.

For Jordan Eberle, it was a nightmare of a series. Despite racking up assists, he just seemed to not be able to come through in the goals department, with plenty of high danger opportunities to do some damage.

While some were stellar stops by Carter Hart, Eberle just was unable to get easy goals. He was missing the net on plenty of these opportunities or shooting the puck right into the logo of Hart. He registered 22 shots throughout the seven games without a goal.

And if I could guess at least half of these shots were prime opportunities to score. Now this statistic does not even take into consideration the shots where he missed high and wide, which seemed to happen at least once a game in critical situations. The Islanders need to see Eberle find a way to get the monkey off his back as against this Lightning team the opportunities that he got cannot go by the board.

Josh Bailey

Josh Bailey is having a playoff to remember. A guy that never seen as a threat offensively has recorded 15 assists in 16 games, with two key goals coming back in the series against the Washington Capitals. His ability to contribute on the offensive side of the puck is showcasing just how deep this team is.

His linemates Brock Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier have done so well this postseason as well due to his play. While Beauvillier cooled off this series, with just one goal, an empty-netter last night, Nelson continued his strong play with four goals and four assists.

Bailey picked up the primary assist on all four of Nelson’s goals as that line has been clicking the entirety of the playoffs. In Game 7, his beautiful pass to Nelson, sealed the fate for the Flyers, giving the Islanders plenty of breathing room with a 3-0 lead.

This playoff run, Bailey has averaged 18:49 minutes per game, a career-high. Based on his play, his coach Trotz wants him out there as he has been a wizard with the puck on his stick. The biggest thing for Bailey is that he has done everything right, not registering a single penalty the whole entire playoffs, adding a physical touch to his game with 16 hits in 16 games.

Derick Brassard

After being a healthy scratch due to lackluster play through the first two games of the series, Derick Brassard got his chance to show that he deserves to be a regular in the lineup as his team continues their playoff run.

Since coming back into the lineup for Game 3, Brassard looked like a man on a mission. He was making plays that he had failed to make previously, using his creativity and skillset to create time and space in the offensive zone.

This is Derick Brassard, doing his best impersonation of Barzal to set up a crucial goal. He registered two goals and five assists in the series, winning 50 percent of his faceoffs (8/16).

Brassard has been a strong playoff player in the past, coming through in critical moments for his teams. He was able to come through in Game 5, scoring the tying goal to force overtime, in which the Islanders would ultimately lose. If the Islanders can have Brassard continue his strong form, it just makes this already deep lineup even deeper. A team can never have too much offense in the playoffs.

Keys For Tampa Bay Lightning

Despite their record this postseason, the Lightning have had to battle to get to this point. After going 2-1 in the round-robin, the Lightning beat off the Columbus Blue Jackets four games to one, before doing the same to the Boston Bruins to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. But it was a grind, with four games going past regulation between the two series, even a round-robin game going into a shootout. But the one common theme was that the Lightning came out on top.

Just as the Lightning are the Islanders’ best opponent so far, the same can be said for how the Lightning view the Islanders. A tough team to play against, the Bolts will need to play to the highest level to come out of this series on top despite them being favorites.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Andrei Vasilevskiy has been one of the top goaltenders in the league over the last few years, as the now 26-year old is looking to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in his career.

Unlike the Islanders who have two goaltenders that can contribute, this is Vasilevskiy’s crease regardless of struggles. Fortunately for the Lightning, struggling is not in Vasilevskiy’s vocabulary.

This postseason, AV has been stellar, with a .931 SV% and a 1.91 GAA, winning 10 of his 13 games. His team has allowed 32.2 shots per game, but they have all the faith in the world that he will come up with that big save, which he has. He has been his team’s best player every single night.

Every night, you know what you are getting from AV. You rarely see a weak goal get by him, and one of his strongest attributes is his ability to come up with that big save to keep a team in a game or a series, something that many goalies around the league struggle to do.

In this year’s playoffs, he owns a Goals Saved Above Average of 6.21, meaning he is denying more than six goals per game when compared to the average goalie.

Against the Islanders this season, the Russian netminder struggled a bit, with an .884 SV%, allowing 2.54 goals per game. In 12 career games against the Islanders, Vasilevskiy owns a .930 SV% and a 2.33 GAA.

Going against a team that averages 30.9 shots per game, Vasilevskiy will have to remain sharp, as this Islander team makes the most of their scoring opportunities.

Brayden Point

We all knew how good of a player Brayden Point is. But in this year’s playoffs, he has shown that he may be the best player on this Lightning team, a team that has Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and Victor Hedman.

After only scoring 25 goals in the regular season (a down year from his 41 in 2018-19), Point has led with his play, scoring six goals and recording 12 assists.

Against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Point scored the goal to send everyone home in Game 2 after five-plus overtime periods. He then sent the Lightning to the second round with his Game 5 overtime goal.

Safe to say that clutchness may be his middle name. Besides his scoring touch, his ability to make quick moves and make plays is something that truly stands out.

It just is not fair. Point has eight points (3G, 5A) in 12 career games against the Islanders. A series battle between Point and Barzal will be must-watch hockey.

The Islanders defense was caught watching a handful of times against the Flyers, so Point will need to use his skills to generate offensive zone time for his team, and when given the opportunity, get that puck to the net. Because the opportunities will be limited.

Ondrej Palat

Playing on the first line alongside Point has some perks, Ondrej Palat is a fire that the Islanders must put out to win the series.

After failing to record a goal in the first nine games of the postseason, Palat has five goals in his last four games, as we head into the Eastern Conference Finals.

His quick release, which definitely has gone under the radar by most over his eight-year NHL career, has provided his team with crucial goals.

His ability to deflect shots however is what has stood out to me. The Islanders rarely allow goals, and against the Flyers, the deflections were their downfall, as a handful of the goals for the Flyers came via this style.

While Palat is no Joe Pavelski, having this ability is so valuable, as it makes the lives of netminders rather difficult. In 20 games against the Islanders, Palat has two goals and 12 assists. With Kucherov banged up, still slated to play in Game One, Palat needs to continue his dominance to help this team get passed a juggernaut defense that the Islanders possess.