The Montreal Canadiens have signed Tyler Toffoli to a four-year deal worth $4.25 million annually.
The Montreal Canadiens have been active in rebuilding their top-nine forward group this offseason. Earlier this offseason, they made the bold move of trading Max Domi and a third-round pick to the Blue Jackets for Josh Anderson. On Monday, they continued their makeover, signing Tyler Toffli to a four-year deal worth $4.25 million.
That’s a pretty good deal for someone who’s a legitimate top six forward. Toffoli’s combination of play driving and shot generation alone makes him a strong second line or third line wing. For most teams, this is a brilliant signing.
But for the Canadiens? I’m not so sure.
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What Does Toffoli Bring To The Canadiens?
On both ends of the ice, Toffoli can drive play. He’s one of the best shot generators in the NHL as well. Since the start of the 2017-18 season, Toffoli ranks 11th among forwards in 5v5 ixG/60 (expected goals per hour). This shows you just how good he is at creating chances. The Canadiens need forwards who can do that.
He’s also above average in 5v5 points per hour and assists per hour. If you put Toffoli with skilled linemates, he’ll help them drive play better and help make them better players. Sounds like a pretty good signing, right? For most teams, I’d say yes. But…
What Doesn’t Toffoli Bring To The Canadiens?
Here’s what Toffoli doesn’t bring to the Canadiens – goal scoring. Yes, he creates chances. But Toffoli has historically struggled to finish them. Remember how I said he is 11th among forwards in expected goals per hour? Well, Toffoli is much lower on the list in actual goals per hour.
334 forwards have played at least 1,500 5v5 minutes since the start of the 2017-18 season. Toffoli ranks 152nd in 5v5 goals per hour. Part of this is because he was playing on the LA Kings, who aren’t a good goal scoring team. But this also tells us Toffoli isn’t a very good finisher.
Sound familiar, Habs fans? It should because in recent years, Canadiens wings have been very good at creating chances but not good at finishing them. That’s a problem. And it’s not just a “puck luck” problem. Toffoli consistently underperforms his expected goals.
Even if he continues to, from a value standpoint, Toffoli’s still a pretty good bargain. Play-driving wings who can finish competently are worth more than $4.25 million a year. The problem is, Toffoli doesn’t solve the biggest problem the Canadiens have – their inability to score. Unless Toffoli discovers how to finish, the Habs are going to have the same problems they had last year.
Grade
This is a great bargain signing. On any other team, I’d wager this would be at least an A-. Toffoli brings a lot of valuable skills to the table and he’ll make the Canadiens a better team. But ultimately, he’s not going to help them address their fatal flaw – scoring.
Overall, I like this signing for the Canadiens, but they should have gone after somebody who can score goals. For example, how about Anthony Duclair? He’d make all the sense in the world for the Canadiens.