Connor Brown and the Ottawa Senators are scheduled to go to arbitration. Here’s what he could get.
The Ottawa Senators have been quite busy so far this offseason and they’re still not done yet. Their next order of business will probably be restricted free agent Connor Brown‘s arbitration case, which will be held on Thursday, Oct. 22.
Should the two sides get to arbitration, Brown cannot receive anything longer than a one year deal, since Brown has one year of team control remaining before he becomes an unrestricted free agent after next season.
What could Brown get in arbitration? Let’s take a look.
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Arbitration Figures
The two sides have exchanged arbitration figures. Ottawa has offered $2.25 million while Brown and his camp have countered with $4.8 million. Usually, the award tends to be pretty close to the midpoint. If this rings true for Brown’s case, he’ll get around $3.025 million.
However, the Senators offer seems pretty low even for arbitration. Keep in mind Brown is coming off a deal that paid him $2.1 million per year. He performed well during that contract, especially last season, when he set career highs in assists (27) and points (43).
Brown was indisputably a top line forward for the Senators. Among Senators forwards, only Brady Tkachuk averaged more 5v5 ice time per game than Brown. He also led the team in 5v5 points with 35.
The Senators low offer could affect the ruling and it wouldn’t be surprising if Brown’s award is closer to $3.5 million than $3 million.
In theory, the Senators could walk away from his award if it’s more than $4,538,938. That’s well within the realm of plausibility and it might persuade Brown to agree to a long-term deal. It wouldn’t be good for Brown to enter the free agent market right now with so many teams clinging onto what remains of their cap space.
That said, it would be mighty odd for the Senators to walk away from an award, especially for Brown. Brown’s a very useful player and if nothing else, they could easily trade him and at least get something for him. Getting nothing for him and Anthony Duclair would put a huge damper on what has been a pretty solid offseason for the Senators.
Long-Term Deal
A long-term deal isn’t likely, but it’s still plausible. If one gets worked out, Kevin Labanc‘s recent extension (four years $4.725 AAV) could be the benchmark. The two players have pretty similar numbers over the past three seasons.
Labanc has averaged 1.64 5v5 points per hour since the start of the 2017-18 season while Brown has averaged 1.61. Thanks to more power play time (and a better team around him), Labanc’s raw numbers are better. Labanc has 129 points while Brown has 100, which is why I think Brown will get a little less than Labanc.
Brown’s arbitration case is going to be a fascinating one to watch. The Senators must consider not just what he was last year for them, but also what he will be in the future.