Is an Andrei Svechnikov breakout season coming up for the Carolina Hurricanes in 2020-21?
Andrei Svechnikov is one of the most exciting players in the NHL.
Between his pension for scoring lacrosse goals and power forward playing style, the 20-year-old Russian left-hander has certainly lived up to the pedigree of a player who went second overall in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.
However, through his first two years in the NHL, one thing has eluded the Carolina Hurricanes‘ most popular player: Volume scoring.
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Now sure, Svechnikov is, was, and will remain one of the most creative shooters in the entire league for the foreseeable future, but through his first 150 NHL games – 165 if you count the playoffs – he’s only scored 44 goals in the regular season and seven more in the playoffs. Is the 2020-21 season the year Svechnikov eclipses 30 goals?
That… depends.
Though Svechnikov’s numbers look remarkably similar between his first two seasons in the NHL, his shooting percentage actually increased by 2.5 percent from 10.6 in 2018-19 to 13.1 in 2019-20 while serving as the Hurricanes’ top-line right wing for the vast majority of the season. Assuming that trend continues along with an uptick in average on ice time, there’s little reason to believe Svechnikov won’t be capable of putting up big numbers if given an opportunity.
But again, will that opportunity be there?
First and foremost, the Hurricanes are one of the league’s most forward-thinking teams in terms of embracing analytics. They opted against paying big money to a free agent goalie – arguably their biggest weakness in 2019-20 – because they felt they could coast along with the two cheaper options they already had under contract (James Reimer and Petr Mrazek) and routinely shift lines at a clip higher than many of their Metro Division peers. With zero forwards averaging 20 or more average minutes on ice per game in 2019-20, it’s entirely possible Svechnikov’s ceiling as a volume scorer could be artificially lowered due to a lack of opportunity.
Granted, Hurricanes GM Don Waddell is no dummy. If Svechnikov is head and shoulders the team’s best offensive option or is on a particularly hot streak, he isn’t going to instruct Rod Brind’Amour to play him less based on the numbers, but as a general rule, we probably won’t see Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl-esque usage rates anytime soon.
Another factor that could prevent Svechnikov from joining the 30 goal club is the general lack of information fans, teams, and players alike have about the 2020-21 season. If the league opts to play a full 82-game regular season campaign – which seems incredibly unlikely – then there’s very little reason to assume Svechnikov from hitting 30 goals. However, if the league opts instead for a 70 game season, a 60 game season, or *gasp* even fewer, then it’ll be incredibly challenging for Svechnikov, or really any player in the NHL, to put up career numbers.
In a normal season, this would be Svechnikov’s year, but unfortunately, 2020 doesn’t appear to be anyone’s year, even if the season doesn’t technically open up until 2021.
Whether it happens in 2020-21, 2021-20, or even 2022-23, it feels like only a matter of time before Andrei Svechnikov finally has that breakout season that turns him into an international star worthy of fans memorizing how to spell his name. Heck, some, like NHL.com’s Dan Rosen and NHL Network’s Mike Johnson, think we may see the day when the former second overall pick hits 40 goals, which would obviously be a huge addition to the Carolina Hurricanes’ offense. If that happens this season, great. But if it doesn’t, we’ll surely get a ton of showstopping lacrosse goals that will flood social media for the foreseeable future.