St. Louis Blues: It’s more about when than will with Vince Dunn
You can safely buy a Vince Dunn jersey, St. Louis Blues fans.
Objectively speaking, the St. Louis Blues run one of the tightest ships in the NHL.
Sure, their 2020 offseason hasn’t exactly been flashy, and some will point to the loss of Alex Pietrangelo to the Vegas Golden Knights as an indictment of the team’s ability to retain star-level talent, but neither of those outcomes were all that surprising. After contractual extension conversations broke down with Pietrangelo back in September, it became abundantly clear he wouldn’t be back in a Blues jersey anytime soon, so the organization shifted course and locked in ex-Boston Bruins’ left-handed playmaker Torey Krug to a seven-year, $45.5 million deal worth $2.3 AAV less than what Vegas paid the team’s former captain.
Factor in the presence of 27-year-old topliner Colton Parayko and the four-year contract extension tendered to 2020 trade deadline acquisition Marco Scandella and the Blues appear better positioned to lose a three-time All-Star captain than most others, all the while maintaining their positioning as one of the premier favorites to win the Central Division for the fourth time in the last decade.
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However, just because the Blues are well-positioned to replace Pietrangelo’s production in 2021 doesn’t mean they are totally finished re-shaping their defensive rotation, as one of the team’s more intriguing options remains unsigned heading into the 2020-21 NHL season: Vince Dunn.
The 56th overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, Dunn found a home in the Blues’ defensive rotation in 2017-18 and has remained a quality, ascending piece for the team ever since. Though he’s yet to truly grow into a player worthy of top-line consideration, Dunn’s 82 points, 174 blocks, and 127 hits rank favorably among his St. Louis contemporaries and could continue to see his stats improve with more action and power play opportunities.
That development, however, is directly contingent on signing a new contract, which, as of yet, hasn’t happened.
You see, Dunn is a restricted free agent without arbitration rights. Though the Blues have extended a qualifying offer to keep the Mississauga, Ontario native around for the 2020-21 season, the two parties have yet to agree on any sort of a deal to remain together moving forward, whether that be on a short-term or long-term basis.
Could some other team swoop in and steal the 24-year-old away from St. Louis? In theory, that’s possible, but at this point, incredibly unlikely. With the salary cap expected to remain stagnant through 2021-22 at the bare minimum and the actual start of the 2020-21 season very much still up in the air, there just hasn’t been much movement in the RFA game outside of teams like the Bruins retaining their own on long-term deals. Though Dunn remains an intriguing player that many an NHL team would like to add to their roster moving forward, the most likely outcome remains the two parties reuniting for a fourth season together this winter.
How the Blues can make that work financially, however, is where things get interesting.
With the Blues roughly $870,000 over the NHL’s $81.5 million salary cap, according to our friends over at Spotrac, the team can’t afford to pay Dunn even $1 without making serious subtractive moves to get under the cap first. Fortunately – for the team’s cap at least – the Blues have two players, Vladimir Tarasenko and Alexander Steen, who are expected to start out the season on LTIR, which effectively removes them from the cap conversation for the time being. While that doesn’t necessarily guarantee the team a full season with $13.25 million in cap reprieve, it could buy general manager Doug Armstrong 10 NHL games and 24 days to move some money around and get the team under the hard cap regardless of Dunn’s status.
Adam Gretz of NBC Sports’ Pro Hockey Talk expects Dunn to command a ‘bridge’ contract worth roughly $3 million so finding a way to free up roughly $4 million isn’t the hardest ask in the world for a savvy NHL mind with a clear track record of building contenders.
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Could some team come out of the weeds and mix things up in the final two minutes for the St. Louis Blues? Sure, anything is possible, but when it comes to extending Vince Dunn, the question appears to be ‘how are the terms of his extension with the Blues,’ more so than ‘where will he play next.’ Though it’ll take a little bit of work to make things work, after allowing Alex Pietrangelo to walk in free agency to join an equally cap-strapped Vegas Golden Knights squad, I highly doubt Armstrong and company will let a 24-year-old defenseman walk too.