The NHL’s Best non-Elite Defensemen in 2021

A list ranking the second-tier of defensemen playing in the NHL right now

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article ranking 2021’s ten best NHL Defensemen. 

In that article, I used a method that hasn’t been done before. I first isolated Defensemen who fit my (self-defined) criteria for a #1 defenseman, then created a standardized score based on seven categories:

1. Time on Ice (“TOI”) (which I got from natural stat trick);
2. TOI vs. Elite Competition (which I got from PuckIQ);
3. Points;
4. Individual Corsi For % vs. Team Corsi For % (which I got from natural stat trick) – which I’ll call “Corsi Differential”;
5. Plus/Minus;
6. Blocks (which I got from hockey-reference);
7. Hits (also from hockey-reference).

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What I got was a list that mostly met the eye test. Of course, there were some surprises. I didn’t expect Alex Pietrangelo to fall to ninth, nor Ivan Provorov to rise to tenth, or Kris Letang to fourth.

I’m interested in seeing whether this method is truly valid, so I expanded it to several other NHL defensemen, which I will go over in this article.

I also didn’t put some names on my list of #1 D that probably belong there, which I’ll go over first. Then, I’m going to look at some D that didn’t get enough Power Play time, followed by the D that didn’t get enough Penalty Kill time.

To recap, I defined a #1 D as a player who generally:

1. Plays the most minutes on the team;
2. Plays the toughest minutes (in other words, against elite competition);
3. Quarterbacks the Power Play and also logs significant time on the Penalty Kill;
4. Contributes offensively, while also being defensively responsible.

What I’m calling a “non-elite D” either didn’t fit the criteria to qualify as a #1 D or was a #1 D but wasn’t in the top ten.

Other Number One Defenseman – Morgan Rielly

Leafs fans would have surely noticed the omission of Morgan Rielly from my list. That was deliberate – I simply never assumed Morgan Rielly could be considered an elite #1 D.

But Rielly’s TOI was:

• 19:52 Even Strength
• 2:20 Power Play
• 1:59 Penalty Kill
• (Adjusted for a full season) He led his team in Even Strength minutes and TOI vs. Elite Comp.

Since he technically fit my criteria for a #1 D, I probably should have at least included him.

Although after plugging it in, I can see that it wouldn’t have changed the result:

• TOI: 97%
• TOI vs. elite comp: 83%
• Pts: 53%
• Corsi Diff: 41%
• (+/-): 54%
• Blocks: 49%
• Hits: 27%

Overall Score: 59%

Rielly spent enough TOI to be the #1 D in Toronto, but his numbers did not put him in the top ten. It is easy to look at Hits as a weakness, but keep in mind the category is only weighted as heavily as the other six. Roman Josi only scored 37 percent in hits, and Victor Hedman came in even lighter at 25 percent.

Where he actually suffered the most was Corsi Differential. The team was technically better overall when he wasn’t on the ice. And that’s certainly not what a #1 D should be.

Incidentally, Corsi Differential also hurt John Carlson, another player known for putting up the points. Like Carlson though, I would say that Morgan Rielly is more than just an offensive specialist (like a Tyson Barrie or a Torey Krug). But also like Carlson, that offensive production needs to be measured against Rielly’s defensive game.

Other Number One Defenseman – Duncan Keith

A former Norris Winner with three cup rings, Duncan Keith has had an amazing career. In prior years, I have no doubt he’d land high in the top ten. But it should come as no surprise that last year wasn’t one of those years. He did, however, check the boxes – I’d say he is still a #1 D in this league.

• TOI: 94%
• TOI vs. elite comp: 82%
• Pts: 41%
• Corsi Diff: 48%
• (+/-): 44%
• Blocks: 66%
• Hits: 35%

Overall Score: 56%

Keith is still logging heavy and tough minutes for the Hawks, but the results aren’t as shiny. The category that hurt him the most was points. At 41 percent, 18 of the 19 players I tested scored higher than him. Only Jacob Trouba had fewer points.

Other Number One Defenseman – Ryan Suter

When Ryan Suter and Shea Weber were both in Nashville, they were one of, if not the best tandem in the league. That seems like ages ago, but both Defensemen can still bring it. But while Weber has had a bit of a resurgence in his career, Suter’s game is slightly declining.

• TOI: 93%
• TOI vs. elite comp: 70%
• Pts: 64%
• Corsi Differential: 58%
• (+/-): 31%
• Blocks: 46%
• Hits: 23%

Overall Score: 55%

I initially thought Suter was a #1 D, but his TOI vs. elite comp is so low that I don’t think he’s there anymore. I don’t recall him ever being much of a Power Play Quarterback either, but he spent an average of 2:54 per night on Minnesota’s PP last year. That’s more minutes on the PP than Burns, Werenski, or Heiskanen.

On the one hand, Suter had a strong Corsi Differential. His team was better when he was on the ice. On the other hand, Suter’s (+/-) really hurt him. So he’s an above-average player on a below-average team. It’s not easy to be an above-average player on an above-average team, which is why Dougie Hamilton is in the top ten and Suter is not.

But when you consider Suter’s Corsi Differential in light of his deployment against elite comp, that above-average performance is suddenly revealing. He should be an above-average player if he’s playing against below-average competition.

Like Morgan Rielly,  just 23 percent in Hits didn’t sink him, but without gaining much ground in other categories, it certainly didn’t help.

Bear in mind, though, that 55 percent isn’t exactly that far off from 65 percent. And if I am being realistic, this is the NHL we are talking about, where the margins should be narrow. What I am saying is that 55 percent doesn’t make Keith or Suter bad players – it actually suggests they are very good players. In 2021, they’re just not quite at the level a mere handful of their peers are.

Further criteria.

Some defensemen do everything for their team but quarterback the PP. In my opinion, in order to be considered a legit #1 D, those players must quarterback the Power Play.

I’m looking at some of those players next. But take their scores with a grain of salt. They are not being measured on the same criteria as legit #1 D.

In fact, after looking at the names, I suspect that the model I used biases defenders. That isn’t a bad thing – a defenseman’s most important job is to defend. But quarterbacking the Power Play is also a really important job. And it’s a job that comes with an extra 2:30 a night. So players with no PP duty can flourish in their other roles.

What I am saying is this. It might not be fair to compare the scores you see with the scores on my other list. But, it might be fair to compare these players against each other.

That or the methodology needs tuning.

Offensive Defensemen – Quinn Hughes

Expectations in 2020 were probably higher for Quinn Hughes‘ younger brother Jack, the first overall pick in the 2019 draft. Quinn himself was drafted seventh in 2018, and for a 19-year-old defenseman, he clearly stole the show.

• TOI: 87%
• TOI vs. elite comp: 75%
• Pts: 72%
• Corsi Diff: 106%
• (+/-): 23%
• Blocks: 23%
• Hits: 3%

Overall Score: 56%

First of all, it’s fairly rare to see 20-year-olds playing a full season in the NHL on defense. Typically, young defenders are 22 before they get a full season. But it’s simply unheard of for 20-year-old defensemen to score 53 points (64 adjusted over a full season). What Hughes did was incredible. In just his first year, he has established himself as an elite offensive defenseman.

There are two scores which look like typos but aren’t. First of all, Vancouver’s Corsi was far better when Hughes was on the ice – an impressive feat. On the other hand, he managed just seven hits last year. Seven.

But Quinn Hughes is only 21. He is a far cry from the 6-foot-5 230 pounds Eric Lindros was when he was 21. But like most humans (Lindros was not), Hughes will surely improve the physical side of his game in the coming years. What remains to be seen is whether that maturity will enable him to transition from being a purely offensive talent into a legit #1 D and one of the league’s best.

Offensive Defensemen – Cale Makar

2020’s Calder winner, Cale Makar, had a breakout year that was no less incredible than Quinn Hughes’. And at just 22, he also has plenty of room to improve his already impressive game.

• TOI: 84%
• TOI vs. elite comp: 76%
• Pts: 81%
• Corsi Diff: 57%
• (+/-): 65%
• Blocks: 28%
• Hits: 26%

Overall Score: 59%

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 2021 Hughes post similar numbers to 2020 Makar. After all, Makar is one year older than him.

Like Hughes, Makar got relatively easy minutes, which ultimately hurts his overall score. That’s obviously offset by how much better his points were. And also, like Hughes, the physical game is missing, although not to the same extent.

Offensive Defensemen – Shea Theodore

Shea Theodore is a few years older than Hughes and Makar, but I think that it’s debatable whether his game is any farther along.

• TOI: 93%
• TOI vs. elite comp: 57%
• Pts: 60%
• Corsi Diff: 99%
• (+/-): 65%
• Blocks: 33%
• Hits: 9%

Overall Score: 60%

A few numbers jump out at me with Theodore. His Corsi Differential was extremely high on a team that already has an extremely high Corsi Differential. In fact, that number is 58.50 percent – that’s a truly phenomenal shot share.

On the other hand, Theodore got hardly any time against elite comp. Even Hughes and Makar are head and shoulders above him. Clearly, whenever possible, Theodore gets the easiest assignments in Vegas.

And like Hughes and Makar, his game isn’t very physical. And physicality is an important part of playing defense. How do you expect to defend when you can’t win a battle on the boards or in front of the net?

Offensive Defensemen – Thomas Chabot

Thomas Chabot was head and shoulders above anyone in the league for minutes played. His TOI and TOI vs. elite comp were also far beyond any of his teammates. Clearly, he has become the cornerstone of the Ottawa Senators’ blue-line in the wake of Erik Karlsson’s departure. And at the young age of 23 to boot. So I was a little surprised to learn that Chabot spent no time on the PK.

• TOI:110%
• TOI vs. elite comp: 94%
• Pts: 51%
• Corsi Diff: 78%
• (+/-): 8%
• Blocks: 41%
• Hits: 37%

Overall Score: 60%

Chabot was a TOI monster for the Senators last year. No Defenseman had a tougher assignment than he did at even strength. Chabot also spent 3:15 a night on the PP.

To give a 23-year-old defenseman all that ice time, it shouldn’t be overly surprising to see his Plus/Minus take a hit. What is surprising, though, is that despite a tough assignment, the Senators were a significantly better team when Chabot was on the ice.

On the other hand, for a player with so many minutes, Chabot didn’t block very many shots or make very many hits. He is only 23 though, so I expect to see improvement in 2021 from an already impressive young player.

Offensive Defensemen – Neal Pionk

The Winnipeg Jets’ Blue Line has a new name: Neal Pionk.

Even though his time on the PK was a little light at 0:53 per night,  Neal Pionk had an impressive debut with the Jets. He took on a heavier than expected role with Dustin Byfuglien’s abrupt retirement and definitely rose to the challenge.

• TOI: 96%
• TOI vs. elite comp: 93%
• Pts: 58%
• Corsi Diff: 81%
• (+/-): 62%
• Blocks: 39%
• Hits: 78%

Overall Score: 72%

Here’s an offensive defenseman who really did it all last year. It’s crazy to think he was undrafted. That’s a story in and of itself. As we’ve seen time and time again on this list, when players are given higher TOI and TOI vs. elite comp, their (+/-) tends to falter. Not so for Pionk, and his Corsi Differential was much higher than his team’s average.

Pionk’s a couple of years older than Charlie McAvoy, but he’s thrust into a similar role, leading a blue line in the process of transition. I am surprised Pionk didn’t get more attention from Norris voters. Surely Jets fans knew he was one of the brightest surprises last season.

Takeaways

I looked at these players to help assess whether the methodology I used in making my top ten list was valid. I don’t think we could possibly say that Darnell Nurse and Jaccob Slavin are better than Victor Hedman, even though their scores were similar. So I think that at best, the methodology could only work if comparing similar players.

I also noticed that offensive defensemen scored lower. Taken alongside the fact the defensive defensemen scored higher, I wonder if the methodology was skewed in favor of defenders. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though – a defenseman’s first priority always remains on defense. I do, however, feel like there’s a way to score all defensemen; I just need to find it.

I thought it was interesting the offensive and defensive defensemen were (for the most part) younger than the #1 D. I wonder whether some of the names we are looking at in this article are the #1 D of tomorrow. I guess we’ll see.

Thanks for reading!