Winnipeg Jets: How Mark Scheifele would impact each NHL Division

The Central Division

Scheifele’s (2019-2020) Central Division rivals are:

1. Nathan McKinnon (Colorado): 70.2% – 3rd Overall
2. Ryan O’Reilly (St. Louis): 52.1% – 15th Overall
3. Jonathan Toews (Chicago Blackhawks): 35.2% – 27th Overall
4. Tyler Seguin (Dallas Stars): 34.5% – 28th Overall
5. Matt Duchene (Nashville Predators): 33.1% – 32nd Overall
6. Eric Staal (Minnesota Wild): 27.6% – 33rd Overall

Scheifele scored higher than all other centers except for Nathan McKinnon.

In fact, looking at these scores, the bottom half of the Central Division appears to be below league-average at the center position.

Numbers three to six all tended to score low at Time on Ice, both at Even Strength and on the PP. This means that those teams are distributing responsibility more evenly among their centers. But it also means the coaches aren’t trusting their First Line Centers in too many situations.

Nathan McKinnon is obviously one of the league’s very best centers, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Scheifele as the #2 Center in Colorado. McKinnon wasn’t far off Scheifele’s league-leading TOI and TOI vs. elite, but his CDiff was much improved, which probably created the most separation between the two. In other words, when Nathan McKinnon is on the ice, he creates that more offense and allows that much less defence.

Verdict: Scheifele would be the First Line Center on every team in the Central Division, except the Colorado Avalanche.

The Pacific Division

The Pacific Division is a case study in extremes:

1. Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers): 80.2% – First Overall 
2. Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers): 79.6% – 2nd Overall
3. Elias Pettersson (Vancouver Canucks): 59.9% – 8th Overall
4. Bo Horvat (Vancouver Canucks): 50.2% – 17th Overall
5. Anze Kopitar (Los Angeles Kings): 41.8% – 24th Overall
6. William Karlsson (Vegas Golden Knights): 37.5% – 25th Overall
7. Sean Monahan (Calgary Flames): 33.54% – 30th Overall
8. Logan Couture (San Jose Sharks): 28.6% – 32nd Overall
9. Ryan Getzlaf (Anaheim Ducks): 27.1% – 34th Overall
10. Derek Stepan (Arizona Coyotes): 21.2% – 35th Overall

Speaking in terms of Overall Score, the Oilers are the only team where Scheifele would definitely be the third Line Center. In reality, Scheifele would likely still be deployed in the top 6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a natural center who plays on McDavid’s wing. Before McDavid and Draisaitl came into the league, the Nuge was indeed the Oilers’ First Line Center.

Derek Stepan of the Arizona Coyotes finds himself at the bottom of the Division. He scored below the 30th percentile for both TOI and TOI vs. elite. And he scored the lowest of all players tested for Even Strength Points, netting him a 0.0% in that category.

On the other hand, McDavid and Draisaitl played huge minutes while scoring the most points of anyone. At 29.5%, the Oilers’ Power Play was among the NHL’s all-time best. And typically, McDavid and Draisaitl were double-shifted on the PP. This means they were usually out there for nearly the entire 2 minutes of the Power Play.

Elias Pettersson, the third-highest scoring center on the list, scored a good amount of points, but his utilization was low. Pettersson was only in the 33rd percentile for TOI and the 25th percentile for TOI vs. elite comp. Bo Horvat, who scored in the 47th percentile for TOI and the 73rd percentile for TOI vs. elite, is clearly sheltering him from tougher minutes. They are kind of acting like a tandem of two 1B Centers in Vancouver.

Even still, as I mentioned previously, Pettersson had the highest CDiff of all players tested – which, compared to Scheifele’s 4%, made a huge difference. Of course, that’s the difference being sheltered makes. If it came down to it, Scheifele would still be the First Line Center in Vancouver since he would effectively assume Horvat’s role and play higher overall minutes than Pettersson.

Verdict: Scheifele would be the First Line Center on every team in the Pacific Division, except the Edmonton Oilers.

The Atlantic Division

The Atlantic Division is probably the deepest Division at the Center position:

1. Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs): 64.7% – 4th Overall
2. Jack Eichel (Buffalo Sabres): 63.5% – 5th Overall
3. John Tavares (Toronto Maple Leafs): 52.8% – 11th Overall
4. Dylan Larkin (Detroit Red Wings): 52.8% – 12th Overall
5. Alexander Barkov (Florida Panthers): 52.3% – 14th Overall 
6. Patrice Bergeron (Boston Bruins): 50.5% – 16th Overall
7. Brayden Point (Tampa Bay Lightning): 48.9% – 19th Overall
8. Phillip Danault (Montreal Canadiens): 44.7% – 22nd Overall
9. Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning): 42.0% – 23rd Overall
10. Chris Tierney (Ottawa Senators): 10.1% – 36th Overall

That’s bad news for Chris Tierney in Ottawa, who was the lowest scoring player I tested. That’s largely due to his underutilization on the Power Play. He spent only 68 minutes on an underperforming PP last year. Compare that to Auston Matthews, who spent 227 on a top-tier PP. As a result, Tierney went 0.0% for all three Power Play stats.

I included Tierney  because every team has a center that plays on the first line, and Tierney is that guy in Ottawa. But clearly, Ottawa could use a First Line Center that plays on the first unit PP.

Dylan Larkin is a case of a good player on a struggling team. His TOI was high; his Even Strength Points were not. And Detroit did not have a very good Power Play, which Larkin is a major part of.

Some may look at where Patrice Bergeron is on this list and raise an eyebrow. He is considered one of the league’s best Two Way Centers and has been for a long time. I’ll note here that games missed to injury aren’t a factor in Bergeron’s score. All scores were adjusted per game.

Bergeron’s reputation as a Two Way Center shined through in his CDiff, where he scored in the 80th percentile. And Bergeron was strong on one of the league’s best PPs. But where he fell behind significantly was his TOI. In fact, he had the lowest TOI of any of the players I measured. As you may recall, Scheifele led all other centers in that category.

And look at the names ahead of him. Matthews, Eichel, Tavares, Larkin, and Barkov. All great (and in some cases, underrated) players.

Since Bergeron’s utilization was low without Scheifele, I suspect if Scheifele was a Bruin, he would play the most minutes. On the PP, the Bruins might load it up like the Oilers do and put both Scheifele and Bergeron out there. It’s worth mentioning that since Patrik Laine’s absence, Scheifele has been playing one-timer in the slot on the Jets’ PP.

I found it interesting that Scheifele scored just slightly higher than John Tavares. They ended up having fairly similar scores across each category, except Even Strength Points, where Scheifele had a noticeable edge.

The 2020 Cup Champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning, were another case of two First Line Centers. Stamkos’ injury problems in recent years allowed Brayden Point to assume more responsibility at center. Until that time, he was generally regarded as a very good #2 Center.

Stamkos, a one-time 60 goal scorer (a decade ago), was low in the TOI column, very low in the TOI vs. elite column, and high in the Even Strength Points column, but 0.0% in the Corsi Differential column. That’s how he found himself 23rd overall.

As with Bergeron though, because the Atlantic Division is deep at center, Stamkos and Point’s positions on this list are deceiving. League-wide, they are closer to the top half than the bottom.

Verdict: Scheifele would be the First Line Center on every team in the Atlantic Division, except the Leafs and Sabres.

The Metropolitan Division

I’ve saved the best for last. Because now we might see where Winnipeg’s newest addition would stack up next to Scheifele himself:

1. Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins): 63.0% – 6th Overall
2. Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers): 62.4% – 7th Overall
3. Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins): 58.6% – 10th Overall
4. Sean Couturier (Philadephia Flyers): 52.4% – 13th Overall
5. Matt Barzal (New York Islanders): 49.7% – 18th Overall
6. Niklas Backstrom (Washington Capitals): 45.5% – 20th Overall
7. Sebastian Aho (Carolina Hurricanes): 45.1% – 21st Overall
8. Nico Hischier (New Jersy Devils): 36.1% – 26th Overall
9. Pierre-Luc Dubois (Columbus Blue Jackets): 33.8% – 29th Overall

Was Mika Zibanejad really better than Malkin last year? His sample size was small due to injury, but when Zibanejad was on the ice last season, he was scoring at a torrid pace. For those who might say that’s due to the Panarin effect, that wasn’t the story last year. Panarin had a slow start while Zibenajad came out of the gate hot.

Sebastian Aho suffers from the Bergeron bias. For a player in the <36th percentile for TOI vs. elite, his offensive contribution at Even Strength and the PP was solid but not outstanding. But like Bergeron, Toews, or Kopitar, Aho’s real value is as a Two Way Center.

Aho’s not overly physical, but he’s quick and excels at gap control. This means that he is very good at taking the puck carrier’s space away and forcing them to give up the puck. I believe we will be hearing more about him in years to come, as the Hurricanes continue to trend towards being a perennial Cup contender.

With Aho’s defensive skill set, I was a little surprised to see that his CDiff was only 49th percentile. But that’s only because Carolina is a very strong Corsi team overall. Aho is still pretty good at controlling the shot share on a team that’s really good at doing that overall. In fact, he still makes the Hurricanes 2.5% better when he’s on the ice.

It’s hard to say how Scheifele’s CDiff would change on a team like Carolina. He might struggle to keep up on a team that doesn’t like to bleed chances. But Scheifele is a very smart player, and smart players are adaptable. And either way, I think his offensive output would most likely overmatch Aho’s.

Verdict: Scheifele would be the First Line Center on every team in the Metro Division, except the Penguins and the Rangers.

Next, I’ll look specifically at Scheifele and Dubois.

Scheifele and Dubois

For anyone who might speculate that Scheifele’s job is in danger, I’ll suggest that isn’t the case. Pierre-Luc Dubois scored 29th out of 36 First Line Centers, broken down as follows:

1. TOI:42.1%
2. vs elite: 25.6%
3. ES Pts: 40.6%
4. CDiff: 45.0%
5. PPTOI%: 53.5%
6. PP%: 14.27%
7. PPP:15.6%

Overall Score: 33.8%

Let’s compare that again with Scheifele:

1. TOI: 100.0%
2. vs elite: 100.0%
3. ES Pts: 60.5%
4. CDiff: 4.0%
5. PPTOI: 73.8%
6. PP%: 41.0%
7. PPP: 37.8%

Overall Score: 59.6%

Dubois was not heavily utilized in Columbus. Most noteworthy is his minimal deployment against elite competition.

On Winnipeg, where Scheifele is the most heavily utilized center in the league, both players are likely to see less time than what they’re used to. And for both of them, that will be a good thing, because it will lead to more quality minutes.

With the amount Scheifele was utilized, it is clear that Winnipeg sorely needed more depth at center. And with Dubois, they now have it – a quality center who was good enough to be the First Line Center in Columbus last year.

I would still, however, expect Dubois to assume a Second Line Center role. Scheifele would likely command first-line minutes, as well as time on the first unit PP. Dubois struggled somewhat on Columbus’ PP, which wasn’t a strong PP to begin with.

As a Second Line Center, though, Dubois will be among the league’s best, and the Winnipeg tandem will be elite as well. Just looking at the other teams with two First Line Centers, Winnipeg might be sitting somewhere behind Pittsburgh, Edmonton, and Toronto in terms of quality depth at the Center position.

And that’s a great look for Winnipeg. While for Columbus, they were already struggling at center depth. They got Jack Roslovic in the deal, but he isn’t likely to be relied upon as heavily as Dubois was. On the other hand, maybe Scheifele was preventing Roslovic from getting more responsibility, and we see him flourish in Columbus. I wish him the best of luck.

Final Verdict

There’s only a handful of teams in the NHL that Scheifele wouldn’t the First Line Center on. I counted five or six. That really does put him in the top-tier of First Line Centers. For Dubois, it’s the other way around. At this point in his career, there are more teams he wouldn’t be the First Line Center on than those he would. But he still has plenty of time to grow into that player. For now, we’re likely to see him getting solid minutes as Winnipeg’s #2 center.

The Full List of 1C

Now that I’ve covered all the Divisions, here’s the full list of the NHL’s best First Line Centers (by Overall Score for the 2019-20 season):

1. Connor McDavid
2. Leon Draisaitl
3. Nathan McKinnon
4. Auston Matthews
5. Jack Eichel
6. Sidney Crosby
7. Mika Zibanejad
8. Elias Petterson
9. Mark Scheifele
10. Evgeni Malkin
11. John Tavares
12. Dylan Larkin
13. Sean Couturier
14. Alexander Barkov
15. Ryan O’Reilly
16. Patrice Bergeron
17. Bo Horvat
18. Matt Barzal
19. Brayden Point
20. Niklas Backstrom
21. Sebastian Aho
22. Phillip Danault
23. Steven Stamkos
24. Anze Kopitar
25. William Karlsson
26. Nico Hischier
27. Jonathan Toews
28. Tyler Seguin
29. Pierre-Luc Dubois
30. Sean Monahan
31. Matt Duchene
32. Logan Couture
33. Eric Staal
34. Ryan Getzlaf
35. Derek Stepan
36. Chris Tierney

Thanks for reading!