Why Ethan Bear is the best kept secret on the Edmonton Oilers
For me, the surprise story of the 2020-21 season is the exact same story as last year – the ascendance of Right Shot Defenseman Ethan Bear.
Leading up to the 2019-20 Season, Ethan Bear was seen as a bubble prospect. He was drafted 124th overall in the 2015 NHL Draft, and had spent 3 seasons with the Bakersfield Condors, the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL Affiliate. At the time, the First Round pick (No. 10 overall) in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, Evan Bouchard was seen as possibly being in a better position to make the jump into the NHL.
Instead, after a strong Training Camp, Bear was immediately inserted into Edmonton’s Top 4 Defensemen. On the depth chart, he had leapt ahead of not only Bouchard, but also an established NHLer in Matt Benning.
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And then Adam Larsson, then the Oilers’ first-pairing D on the right side, broke his foot in the first game. So it came down to Ethan Bear to play the big minutes. And that’s where he remained for the rest of the season – on the Oilers’ top pair.
In fact, Ethan Bear played the 5th most Even Strength Minutes in the entire NHL last season (1308:40 – as per natural stat trick). And he was 13th in the league in minutes played against elite competition (468.4 – as per PuckIQ).
For comparison, Quinn Hughes played 1132:54 at Even Strength (55th overall) and only 371 of those were against elite competition. Cale Makar only played 921:10 (119th overall) and 315.5 against elite. One can only imagine how much different Hughes or Makar’s seasons would have been, had they been played that much more.
Ethan Bear is the Edmonton Oilers’ deadly secret weapon
Even still, the Oilers were a slightly better team whenever Bear was on the ice. For a rookie to step into an NHL lineup, immediately play on the top pair and be effective, is a simply incredible feat.
Yet discussions about the Calder Trophy were focused on rookies like Makar and Hughes. I’m not suggesting that Bear should have been considered over them, but it is worth pointing out that they played sheltered minutes on their respective teams. Ethan Bear did not.
But it looked to me like that was about to change, when the Oilers signed Tyson Barrie in the offseason. I commented on this in more detail in an earlier article. With Barrie and a healthy Larsson, I assumed that Ethan Bear would be relegated to 3rd pairing minutes. Which is where most young defensemen begin anyway.
And I didn’t see that as a bad thing. It seemed to me that Bear would benefit from watching one of the NHL’s premier offensive specialists in Tyson Barrie. When he was drafted, Bear was touted as a future offensive specialist, just like Barrie.
But that wasn’t what happened to start the season. Instead, Ethan Bear was showing two proven NHL veterans how it was done. And what’s more, he was playing at an even higher-level than last season.
According to the numbers
A defenseman’s performance is notoriously hard to rate. The game is won by goals, and their job is to prevent them. So whenever you are rating their performance, it’s hypothetical. An established statistic is plus/minus. There is also Corsi and Fenwick, which both measure the shots and shot attempts taken for and against a player’s team, when they are on the ice.
On a team that has already allowed 43 goals (3rd worst in the entire NHL), Ethan Bear is plus 5. His Corsi and Fenwick are second best on the team, next to Connor McDavid (I got all these numbers from natural stat trick).
And that Corsi is almost 10% higher than the Oilers’ Corsi as a team. It would be hard to find many other players in the NHL with a margin that wide. To put that gap into perspective, when Ethan Bear isn’t on the ice, the Oilers are the 24th best team in the NHL. When he is on the ice, they’re nearly the best team in the NHL – just behind the Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, and Colorado Avalanche.
Is Ethan Bear really that good?
It is tempting to conclude that Ethan Bear’s performance is buoyed by Connor McDavid’s. After all, McDavid is first on the team, and Bear mostly shares the ice with him. But that entirely ignores Head Coach Dave Tippett’s assessment of the player. Bear is out there with McDavid because he’s the best option.
And Bear is also killing penalties this year, on the primary PK unit. Clearly, Tippett thinks Bear is the best right shot blueliner the team has. This prompted me to speculate what it is about Ethan Bear that makes him so special. So I kept a closer eye on him over the last few games, until he was injured by an errant puck to the face.
The Healthy Scratch
I’d be remiss if I didn’t comment on the fact Ethan Bear was scratched from the roster early in the season. That came after he was benched in a 5-1 loss. In that loss, Tippett was critical of Ethan Bear’s read on a play, that led to a bad goal against.
Since then, Bear’s play has improved considerably, along with the team in general. There haven’t been any hiccups since then, and I have no reason to believe it was anything other than a shaky start. And not just for him, but for the whole team. After all, there was no preseason this year. The Oilers’ power play was also having trouble connecting, but that also seems to be behind them.
How is he so good?
Right before he was hurt, Ethan Bear was doing two things exceptionally well. He was neutralizing the forecheck and creating clean breakouts from his own end.
Now, this answer is too simplistic. These are fundamental elements of defending. But if you can do the fundamentals perfectly, a coach will ask for nothing more. And Bear was doing these fundamental things very well.
The next question is how. In Ethan Bear’s case, it comes down to two things – high hockey IQ and good edges. Next, I’ll break it down and explain how Bear’s hockey IQ and edges are helping him out.
Neutralizing the forecheck in the neutral zone
Anticipation is helping Ethan Bear effectively neutralize forechecking attempts. In the games I watched, he was always ahead of the puck. The opposing team wasn’t able to get it past him. Whether they flipped the puck up, trickled it in, or dumped it deep, Bear was always there first.
This is where Bear’s hockey IQ stands out. He knows where to be before anyone else does. In the same situations, other players would have to chase the puck into their own zone. Ethan Bear isn’t chasing pucks around. He knows where the puck is going to be before it gets there.
Winning puck battles
And then when the other team manages to establish a forecheck, Ethan Bear is winning the battles on the boards. In one of the games against Toronto, he handily won two puck battles against John Tavares, who is known for being hard to take the puck off of. Bear made it look easy.
That same game, Bear also won a battle that came off of a race to the corner against Zach Hyman. I thought that was noteworthy because later in the game, Hyman won the puck from Tyson Barrie in a similar situation.
Bear is winning these battles because of both hockey IQ and his edges.
A player’s “edges” are essentially a player’s ability to accelerate or change direction. In Bear’s case, he has fabulous edges. He puts those edges on display when he wins battles on the boards. Bear’s hockey IQ allows him to predict where he will get to the puck first, and his superior edges ensure that he can physically accomplish it. And once he has the puck, he can create separation between himself and the forechecker.
Now, good edges and anticipation aren’t the only way to win a battle on the boards. Often, players will use their size and strength to overpower their opponent. Strength is important for edges too. Bear isn’t a big player, but he is strong on his edges, and that makes it hard to take the puck from him once he has it.
Clean Breakouts
Once again, this is where Bear’s IQ and edges shine.
He isn’t flashy in his end. He doesn’t make long passes, and he rarely transports the puck. However, his linemate Darnell Nurse does like to carry the puck out of the zone, and Bear is taking advantage of this.
Of course, edges are important for puck recovery. But they are also important for initiating a breakout. A fine example of that came late in the last game Bear played in. The puck came to him on a defensive zone faceoff. He didn’t see any good options, so he took three quick steps. By then, the far winger had opened up, and Bear hit him cleanly as he left the zone.
That last play I described was a good fundamental play. And that’s what Ethan Bear is doing well. He’s playing a very solid fundamental defensive game that’s mostly mistake-free. For comparison, I turn to his teammate Caleb Jones. Jones is the same age as Bear. They even went in the same round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. When Jones is out there, he often finds himself chasing the puck in his end. And several times he attempted breakout passes up the wall that resulted in a turnover. Bear’s not making mistakes like that. If he doesn’t have a good pass, he doesn’t make one.
The thing is, there’s nothing unusual about Caleb Jones. He is where he should be at his stage of development. Bear’s the odd man out. He has less than 100 NHL games under his belt, but he already looks like he’s played 1000. At least, when it comes to the areas he’s doing well.
Where Bear’s inexperience shows
The goal that got Ethan Bear benched in an early game resulted from a bad read. This is a classic rookie defenseman mistake. When bad pinches happen, the result is usually an odd-man rush. I noticed Bear occasionally getting caught up ice. I think his judgment on the offensive side probably still needs some work.
And to this point, Bear hasn’t driven much offense. As I mentioned in a prior article, Ethan Bear has a dangerous point shot, but he isn’t using it much. The other area of trouble for Bear is right in front of the net. Size matters there. As an undersized defender, he is having trouble clearing the crease, which leads to dangerous chances in front. I also don’t see him getting in front of a lot of pucks. For a player with good edges, getting into the shooting lanes should be easier.
What it all means
Probably the best way to describe Ethan Bear’s defensive ability is fundamentally sound, and well beyond his years. But there’s another layer to his game that we have yet to see. When Bear gets better accustomed to activating on offense, he’s going to start putting that dangerous shot of his to work.
His shot is dangerous for the same reasons his defense is good. With good edges, he can create separation from the opposing team’s checkers. And he’s able to recognize when to release a shot, such as when there’s going to be traffic in front of the net.
Next. How Connor McDavid's game has evolved. dark
At 23, Bear is young for an established NHL first pairing D, but that’s what the Oilers have in him. And not only does that mean he’s already a very good player, but he’s going to get even better. On a team like the Edmonton Oilers, Ethan Bear can quietly ascend while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl take all the attention way. But NHL players and fans alike should take notice. Bear’s rise through the Oilers’ ranks over the last two years has been nothing short of meteoric. And for the Oilers to find a first-pairing defenseman in the 5th round of the NHL Draft, that’s a welcome change from previous years.