Mike Smith should be firmly in the Vezina Trophy conversation.
If you were to tell any Edmonton Oilers fans heading into the 2020-21 season that Mike Smith would not only become the team’s undisputed number one goaltender, but also be a possible Vezina Trophy finalist, they would have laughed in your face.
The now 39-year-old’s first season in Edmonton did not go well, and as a result had the fan base very frustrated when General Manager Ken Holland elected to re-sign him to a one-year, $2 million deal last offseason.
More from Puck Prose
- Detroit Red Wings 2023 Rookie Camp Has Plenty of Ups and Downs
- This Columbus Blue Jackets rookie doesn’t want to be forgotten
- 2 trades the Boston Bruins must make to secure the Stanley Cup
- 3 reasons the Avalanche won’t win the Stanley Cup in 2024
- This is a big year for Alex Turcotte and the Los Angeles Kings
Truth be told, Holland’s plan was never to bring back Smith. The hope was to bring in Jacob Markstrom, who they pushed hard to sign in the offseason. That never worked out however, as the former Vancouver Canuck agreed to a six-year, $36 million deal with the Calgary Flames, which resulted in Holland circling back to Smith.
This seemed like a huge downgrade, given that Smith had a questionable 2.95 Goals Against Average (GAA) along with a .902 Save Percentage (SV%) while many thought Markstrom deserved to be a Vezina finalist.
Fast forward to where we are now, however, and things are going much differently than anyone saw coming. Markstrom has struggled in his first season in Calgary with a 2.73 GAA and just a .903 SV%. Smith, on the other hand, is the one playing like a potential Vezina Trophy candidate.
A quick glance at Smith’s numbers show that he is having a tremendous season for the Oilers. His record is an incredible 17-5-2, and while wins aren’t a great stat to judge goalies, it says a lot considering his goaltending partner in Mikko Koskinen is just 10-11-0 on the year.
Smith also owns a 2.32 GAA and a .923 SV%, the best numbers he has posted since the 2011-12 season with the Phoenix (now Arizona) Coyotes. It has been an outstanding season for a goalie that nearly everyone had written off.
An Advanced Look At Mike Smith’s Vezina Trophy Case
Amongst his peers, Smith’s GAA ranks 12th in the league for goalies who have played in 10 or more games, while his SV% is seventh. Those are both very solid for the veteran, but don’t scream Vezina finalist. However, taking a deeper dive into his numbers are where things get more interesting, particularly when looking at his goals saved above expected (GSAx).
GSAx is gaining recognition in recent years as the best stat to evaluate goaltenders. As lastwordonsports.com explains, it is a stat that evaluates how many goals a goalie saved above what he was expected to based on the shot quality he faced. The quality is based primarily from the distance the shot was taken, and is fairer to evaluate goalies rather than just SV% as some teams give up more dangerous opportunities than others.
Taking a look at the goalies with the best GSAx around the league, the top three are Andrei Vasilevskiy, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Connor Hellebuyck. This isn’t surprising as they are all highly regarded as some of the best in the game. Sitting in fourth, however, with a GSAx of 12.2, is Smith. This number trails Vasilevskiy by a fairly wide margin as the Lightning goaltender sits at 23.3, but doesn’t trail Fleury (13.9) or Hellebuyck (13.1) by nearly as much.
Another category Smith ranks high in is wins above replacement (WAR), which is a stat you are probably familiar with if you are a baseball fan. Yet again, he sits fourth in the league with a WAR of 2.03, trailing only the same three in Vasilevskiy (3.89), Fleury (2.31) and Hellebuyck (2.19).
Perhaps the most compelling argument for Smith to be in the Vezina Trophy conversation is his high danger SV%. While the Oilers have improved in recent years, they still give up a ton of high danger scoring opportunities. In fact, they are well above the league average in that regard this season. On average, teams have given up 141 high danger opportunities this season. The Oilers, however, have given up 186.
Thankfully, Smith has been up to the task and sits fourth in the entire league with a high danger SV% of .774. While he is outside the top three yet again, he ranks ahead of Vasilevskiy, Fleury and Hellebuyck in this regard. Instead, the only three ahead of him are Laurent Brossoit (.800), Chris Driedger (.794) and Philipp Grubauer (.789).
Strong Finish Needed
If the season were to end today, there is little chance Smith would end up as a finalist for the Vezina. Unfortunately, the people voting on these awards still pay more attention to stats such as GAA and SV% rather than ones that tell a truer tale, particularly GSAx.
What Mike Smith does have in his favor, however, is that the Edmonton Oilers still have 10 games remaining on the season, meaning he has time to improve on his overall numbers even more. If he is able to even further improve upon his already outstanding record, it should turn some heads and perhaps get people to do a bit of a deeper dive to truly understand how great of a season he is having. While he isn’t the frontrunner, he deserves to be brought up in the discussion more than he has to this point. It is truly remarkable that at 39-years-old he is having one of the best seasons of his entire NHL career.